Company Overview - Home Depot has a trailing 12-month revenue of $165 billion and holds a leading position in the home improvement industry with over 2,000 stores across the U.S. [1] Financial Performance - Home Depot's shares have generated a total return of 67% over the past five years, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's performance [2] - The company experienced a sales surge of 19.9% in fiscal 2020 and 14.4% in fiscal 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but revenue growth has slowed, with fiscal 2024 revenue only 5.5% higher than three years prior [3] - For fiscal 2025, management anticipates same-store sales growth of only 1%, indicating a lack of excitement among investors [3] Market Conditions - Economic uncertainty is the primary reason for customers delaying renovation projects, as noted by CEO Ted Decker [4] - Elevated interest rates have led households to be more cautious about large projects that may require debt financing [5] Industry Outlook - The home improvement industry is estimated to be worth $1 trillion and is fragmented, providing Home Depot with a competitive advantage due to its brand recognition and product availability [6] - Home Depot plans to add 13 new stores in fiscal 2025, although expanding physical presence is not a key growth strategy [8] Future Prospects - A potential decline in interest rates could boost Home Depot's sales, and consistent profits have allowed the company to maintain dividend payments [7] - Despite current challenges, there is confidence that Home Depot's revenue will be higher in five years, although growth may not match historical trends [8]

Core Insights - Home Depot's shares have increased by approximately 10.4% over the past three months, prompting investor interest in future performance [1][8] - The company has demonstrated resilience through strong demand from professional contractors, productivity initiatives, and disciplined capital allocation [2][9] - Home Depot's stock performance has outpaced the S&P 500 and Retail-Wholesale sector, although it has underperformed compared to some peers [3][6] Performance Metrics - Home Depot closed at $407.71, trailing the industry's 11.9% gain but outperforming the S&P 500 (8.8%) and Retail-Wholesale sector (5.9%) [3] - The stock is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating sustained momentum [6][7] - In the second quarter, sales rose 4.9% year-over-year to $45.3 billion, with comparable sales growth of 1% in the U.S. [10] Growth Drivers - The professional customer segment is a significant growth driver, with spending levels rising by double digits after activation of trade credit facilities [12] - Home Depot's digital transformation has led to a 12% increase in online comparable sales, enhancing customer engagement [11] - The company plans to open around 13 new stores in fiscal 2025, indicating ongoing capital deployment for expansion [9] Financial Outlook - For fiscal 2025, Home Depot expects total sales growth of about 2.8% and an adjusted operating margin of 13.4% [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year is $15.03, with a slight decline in estimates for the next fiscal year [16] - Home Depot currently trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.41, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 1.71 [18][20]

With every generation, the GPT3 continues to raise the bar and surprise us in a very positive way. Simplifying how you shop for home improvement is not an easy task. At Lowe's, it's all about helping the customers with their complex projects in their houses.It is really around applying reasoning with speed. And that is what we've been able to see so far with GPT5. The number of steps have definitely come down which means it makes it much easier for the associate to get to the answer for our customers.It's b ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a positive comp growth of 4.7% in July, improving from negative comps in May and positive comps in June, indicating a strong exit rate from the second quarter [11] - The management expressed cautious optimism regarding consumer health, noting that homeowners are willing to spend when they perceive value [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in serving large professional customers, which is a segment not significantly served by the company previously [5][6] - FBM's diverse customer base includes approximately 45% residential and 55% commercial, which aligns with the company's strategy to expand its market presence [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company identified a total addressable market of $250 billion for large professional customers, which presents new opportunities following the acquisition of FBM [5][30] - The management highlighted a significant need for 18 million new homes by 2033, indicating a strong demand in the housing market that the company aims to capitalize on [7][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on retail fundamentals and has made significant investments over the past seven years to modernize its strategy for an omnichannel retail environment [10] - The management emphasized the importance of a balanced capital allocation strategy, which includes investments in business growth, dividend increases, and share repurchase plans once leverage targets are met [26][31] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management anticipates stable consumer behavior in the second half of the year, with potential tariff-related price increases being the only significant concern [40] - The company is closely monitoring the mortgage rate environment, believing that a sub-6% rate could unlock consumer spending in the housing market [14][15] Other Important Information - The company has shifted its sourcing strategy, with 60% of goods now sourced from the U.S., reducing dependency on China [20][21] - The management is excited about the early results from the new product marketplace initiative, which aims to broaden the product assortment and attract new customers [35][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for consumer health in the back half of the year - The management expects consumer health to remain stable, with no significant changes anticipated in behavior [40] Question: Pricing actions taken and elasticity response - The management noted that the first half did not see significant tariff-related pricing adjustments, but they are prepared to leverage their portfolio for competitive pricing in the back half [42][44] Question: Inventory growth expectations and supply chain disruptions - The management expressed confidence in their inventory position, stating that most second-half buys are already completed and there are no concerns about supply chain disruptions [46][48] Question: Non-tariff margin drivers outlook - The management does not foresee any significant expense-related increases and is committed to productivity improvement initiatives [49][52] Question: Market share consolidation outlook - The management believes that while there will be additional consolidation in the market, the pro market will remain fragmented with many regional players [53][54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a positive comp growth of 4.7% in July, improving from negative comps in May and positive comps in June, indicating a strong exit rate from the second quarter [12] - The management expressed cautious optimism regarding consumer health, noting that homeowners are willing to spend, especially when they perceive value [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) is expected to enhance Lowe's capabilities in serving the large pro customer segment, which is currently a $250 billion total addressable market [5][19] - FBM's strong track record of organic and inorganic growth, along with its national footprint, complements Lowe's existing store base [4][5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The management highlighted that approximately 90% of customers either own their homes outright or have a mortgage rate below 4%, creating a "lock-in effect" that may delay housing turnover [15][16] - The company identified a significant opportunity in the housing market, with an estimated 18 million new homes needed by 2033, particularly in single-family and multifamily construction [30][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a total home strategy, aiming to provide comprehensive interior solutions for homebuilders through the integration of FBM and ADG [7][32] - The management emphasized the importance of a dynamic pricing strategy to remain competitive while offering value to customers [24][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management anticipates stable consumer behavior in the second half of the year, with no significant macro changes expected, although tariff-related price increases may occur [40][41] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and capital allocation strategy, focusing on investments in the business while also planning to resume share repurchases once leverage targets are met [28][33] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in diversifying its sourcing strategy, with 60% of goods sourced from the U.S. and a reduced dependency on China [21][22] - The management is excited about the early results of their new product marketplace initiative, which aims to broaden product assortment and attract new customers [34][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for consumer health in the second half of the year? - The management expects consumer health to remain stable, with no material changes anticipated in behavior, aside from potential tariff-related price increases [40] Question: What pricing actions have been taken, and what is the elasticity response? - The first half did not see significant tariff-related pricing adjustments, but the company plans to leverage its portfolio for competitive pricing in the second half [41][42] Question: What are the expectations for inventory growth and supply chain disruptions? - The management does not foresee supply chain disruptions and is confident in their inventory commitments for the second half [46][48] Question: What is the view on non-tariff margin drivers like freight and wages? - The company does not anticipate significant expense-related increases and is focused on maintaining productivity while improving customer service [49][50] Question: Will market share consolidation speed up or slow down in 2026? - The management believes that while consolidation will continue, the pro market remains fragmented with significant opportunities still available [52][53]

Well, let's talk more about the opportunities now in retail. Joining us now is New Burger Burman analyst John San Marco. John, good to see you today.When you're looking at the earnings that have come out recently, it really does appear that there has been some resilience in the face of tariffs. How do you explain it. >> Yeah, great to see you.Thanks for having me on. That that's well put. Um, you know, I think tariffs are, you know, one, manifesting a bit slow, more slowly than expected.Um, two, I I think t ...

Group 1 - The article initiates coverage on Lowe's Companies (NYSE: LOW) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD), highlighting their significance in the U.S. home improvement market [1] - The retail sector has been notably impacted by tariffs, affecting pricing and consumer behavior [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a contrarian investment approach, leveraging extensive industry experience to identify potential investment opportunities [1]

Home Depot has been hosting its earnings call this hour. Let's get to Courtney Reagan with some highlights. Morning, Courtney.>> Hi, Carl. Yeah, so despite missing the street's expectations for earnings and revenue for the first time since May of 2014, shares are higher on the reaffirmed guidance for the full year. Comparable sales also disappointed slightly, only the second positive comp in 11 quarters.though sales did continue to get stronger each month of the quarter and McFale just said the CFO on the c ...

Market Overview & Trends - Home Depot's sales momentum is lacking due to less accommodative interest rates, impacting the home improvement channel [2][3] - Summer-like weather helped Home Depot's sales growth slightly during the fiscal quarter [4] - Delays in large renovations are observed, with expectations of lower rates as a trigger for project commencement [9] - A 5% handle on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate could unlock significant remodeling demand [11] Company Performance & Strategy - Home Depot is managing wealth and is a well-run company in a solid sector, but lacks sales momentum [2] - Home Depot benefits from pent-up demand in the US housing market, which is expected to resurge as rates move lower [7] - Home Depot is making better and bigger moves in the complex pro business [15] Investment Recommendation & Valuation - Oppenheimer views Lowe's as a better investment play due to more operational slack and a wider valuation gap compared to Home Depot [13][15] - Lowe's operations are now very close to Home Depot's, but there's still a little more slack there [14] - Despite improvements at Lowe's, the valuation gap between Lowe's and Home Depot has remained very wide, making Lowe's cheap [15] Interest Rate Impact - Lower mortgage rates are expected to re-accelerate sales at Home Depot [7] - A move towards a 5% handle on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is anticipated to unlock remodeling demand [11] - Lower HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) rates, influenced by Fed moves, could fuel remodeling demand by allowing homeowners to tap into historic equity [12]

Retail Industry Overview - This week's earnings reports from Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart, and Target are dominating the retail narrative [1] - The retail sector, valued at $5 trillion, requires segmented analysis across different categories like home improvement ($500 billion), grocery ($1 trillion), and auto parts ($150 billion) [16] - The ability of different consumer retail segments to manage tariff pressures will be a key learning point this week [16] Target Analysis - Evercore downgraded Target to sell on Friday but added a tactical outperform rating, anticipating a potential stock increase this week [2] - Target's stock has significantly underperformed this year, declining over 20% [2] - Despite sales potentially running negative by 2-3% in the quarter and into the summer, a further guidance reduction is deemed unlikely [2] Walmart Analysis - Walmart is favored, included in the top five portfolio alongside Home Depot [5] - Walmart is expected to report a strong second quarter but remain conservative in its full-year guidance [6] - Walmart's growth is driven by increased traffic and a new middle to higher-income consumer base, with Walmart Plus memberships reaching 18 million households, 75% of the year-over-year growth coming from higher-income households [6] Home Improvement Sector - Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams are favored within the home improvement sector due to their pricing power and ability to pass through costs on need-based products [17] - Home Depot's significant exposure to Pro (over half of sales) is a key differentiator compared to Lowe's (under 30%) [10] - Modest improvement to slight growth is expected in home improvement after a 2.5-3 year downturn [11] Economic Factors - Wage inflation in retail has decreased to 3-4%, and is not expected to decelerate significantly [8] - Retailers are reportedly still able to attract and retain necessary personnel [9] - Home improvement demand is predicted by an indicator at just positive 1%, with 30-year mortgage rates being more influential than HELOC rates [13]