Core Viewpoint - Centene expects a rebound in 2026 with adjusted EPS greater than $3, implying over 40% year-over-year growth, driven by Medicaid margin stability, significant margin recovery in Marketplace, and continued improvement toward Medicare Advantage break-even by 2027 [1][4][7] Medicaid - Centene reported a fourth-quarter health benefits ratio (HBR) of 93.0%, showing a 40 basis points sequential improvement and 190 basis points improvement from Q2 levels [8] - The company anticipates a mid-4% net rate impact and mid-4% net trend for 2026, while expecting ongoing Medicaid membership attrition, closing 2025 at 12.5 million members [11][12] - Management is focused on restoring sustainable profitability in Medicaid through operational levers such as network optimization and clinical programs [9] Marketplace - The Marketplace segment is expected to face a smaller membership base due to the expiration of Enhanced Advance Premium Tax Credits (EAPTC), with Ambetter membership projected at approximately 3.5 million by Q1 2026, down from 5.5 million in December [5][15] - Centene anticipates Marketplace pre-tax margins to recover to around 4% in 2026, compared to a loss of approximately 1% in 2025 [17] - The company has accounted for estimated 2026 No Surprises Act costs in its guidance and is advocating for reform [14] Medicare - Centene's Medicare segment is expected to grow premium revenue by about $7.5 billion, with membership projected at approximately 8.7 million coming out of open enrollment [20] - The company aims for break-even results in Medicare Advantage by 2027, with dual-eligible members making up roughly 40% of its Medicare Advantage business [19] - The direct subsidy for Part D increased from $143 to $200, which is expected to raise the HBR without requiring higher SG&A [21] Financial Guidance - For 2026, Centene guided premium and service revenue between $170 billion and $174 billion, with a consolidated HBR of 90.9% to 91.7% [23][24] - The company expects the majority of 2026 adjusted EPS to occur in Q1, with a step-down through the year and a loss anticipated in Q4 [26] - Centene ended 2025 with approximately $400 million in cash for corporate use and reduced debt by $189 million in Q4, reporting a debt-to-cap ratio of 46.5% [25]

Core Viewpoint - Molina Healthcare's shares plummeted over 25% following disappointing guidance for fiscal 2026, with earnings projected at $5 per share, significantly lower than the previous estimate of approximately $14 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Molina Healthcare's stock has declined nearly 35% from its high [2]. - The stock is currently trading below its major moving averages, indicating a broader downward trend [7]. Group 2: Financial Guidance and Market Reaction - The company anticipates an elevated medical cost ratio for the year, contributing to the lowered earnings guidance [1]. - Despite the sharp decline, investor Michael Burry remains optimistic about his investment in Molina, comparing it to Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Geico [4]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Molina Healthcare is currently trading at a discount to its intrinsic value, but faces increased pressure from proposed reductions in Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates, making it a high-risk investment [5]. - Unlike competitors such as UnitedHealth and Humana, Molina does not pay a dividend, making it less attractive for income-focused investors [5]. - Options traders express skepticism about the stock's recovery, with predictions indicating a potential further decline of 20% over the next five months [7]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Wall Street analysts suggest that the recent selloff in Molina shares may have been excessive, indicating potential for recovery despite the associated risks [9].

Core Insights - Health Net, a Medi-Cal managed care health plan under Centene Corporation, partnered with the Pro Football Hall of Fame to host two events in Sacramento: "Salute to Service" and "Strong Youth, Strong Communities" to honor local heroes and inspire youth ahead of Super Bowl Sunday [1][11] Group 1: Salute to Service Event - The "Salute to Service" event recognized healthcare professionals serving vulnerable communities in Sacramento, highlighting the critical work of WellSpace Health, a non-profit community health system [2][4] - Amber Kemp, VP of Medi-Cal Strategy at Health Net, emphasized the importance of community support and honoring healthcare heroes to inspire youth [3] - The event featured Pro Football Hall of Famers and local leaders, providing WellSpace Health employees with opportunities for engagement and recognition [6] Group 2: Strong Youth, Strong Communities Event - The "Strong Youth, Strong Communities" assembly at River City High School engaged over 2,000 students with motivational talks from professional athletes and community leaders, focusing on life skills and leadership [7][10] - Darrell Green, a Pro Football Hall of Famer, highlighted the importance of mental health discussions for youth empowerment [8] - River City High School Principal Jacob Geivett expressed gratitude for the partnership, emphasizing the positive impact of the event on students' resilience and future potential [10] Group 3: Organizational Background - Health Net has been operating in California for over 45 years, providing health plans for various demographics, including those eligible for Medi-Cal and Medicare, serving over three million members [12] - WellSpace Health serves 125,000 individuals annually through various health services, demonstrating a commitment to vulnerable populations in Sacramento and Placer counties [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a fourth quarter adjusted diluted loss per share of $1.19, contributing to a full year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.08, which was slightly ahead of expectations outlined in the previous quarter [7][8] - The fourth quarter GAAP diluted loss per share was $2.24, including a $389 million net loss from the divestiture of the remaining Magellan business [40][41] - The company anticipates full year 2026 adjusted EPS to exceed $3, representing over 40% year-over-year growth [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Medicaid's health benefits ratio (HBR) improved to 93.0% in Q4, showing a 40 basis points sequential improvement and a 190 basis points improvement from Q2 levels [12][42] - The Marketplace segment's HBR was about a point higher than forecasted, with slight improvements in medical cost trends [44] - The Medicare segment delivered strong results, with expectations for membership growth in the PDP business and a focus on achieving break-even in Medicare Advantage by 2027 [28][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed 2025 with approximately 12.5 million Medicaid members, with expectations for a 5%-6% decline in member months in 2026 [43][52] - Marketplace membership is projected to be around 3.5 million by the end of Q1 2026, down from 5.5 million in December [24][53] - Medicare segment revenue is expected to grow by approximately $7.5 billion, driven by premium yield increases and membership growth [54] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on restoring Medicaid business to sustainable profitability while enhancing quality outcomes for members [11] - Key strategies include optimizing networks, implementing new clinical programs, and increasing vigilance against fraud [13][16] - The company is leveraging data and technology, including AI, to improve operational efficiency and member engagement [34][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in executing the 2026 outlook, citing positive momentum and opportunities for margin expansion [38] - The company acknowledged the challenges faced in 2025 but emphasized the strength gained from navigating those challenges [36] - Management highlighted the importance of proactive engagement with state partners to address rate adjustments and program reforms [100][102] Other Important Information - The company ended 2025 with approximately $400 million in cash available for corporate use and reduced debt by $189 million, resulting in a debt-to-cap ratio of 46.5% [50] - The adjusted SG&A expense ratio for Q4 was 7.5%, bringing the full year to 7.4%, reflecting continued discipline and scale [50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Medicaid rate expectation for 4.5% - Management explained that the 4.5% rate assumption is prudent, considering the favorable maturation of 2025 rates and ongoing efforts to bend trend [63][64] Question: Trend comparison for 2025 and 2026 - Management indicated that the 2025 trend was in the mid-6s, while the 2026 assumption is a net trend of mid-4s, reflecting aggressive actions taken in the latter half of 2025 [67][69] Question: Confidence in exchange member dynamics - Management expressed confidence in margin improvement for the Marketplace segment, citing improved visibility and historical data to support pricing strategies [75][84] Question: Incremental decline in Medicaid membership - Management acknowledged slight attrition in membership and discussed the impact of state eligibility tightening and program changes on future membership [86][89] Question: Actuarial soundness lookback process - Management emphasized the importance of shortening the lookback period and maximizing the inclusion of recent data in the actuarial process to inform rate adjustments [95][100] Question: Segment margins in 2026 guidance - Management provided insights into expected margins, indicating opportunities for improvement across all business lines, with specific targets for Medicaid, Marketplace, and Medicare segments [104][105]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted loss per share of $2.75 on premium revenue of $10.7 billion for Q4 2025, which was below expectations due to strong trend pressure in Medicare and Marketplace, along with retroactive items in Medicaid totaling $2 per share [6][19] - For the full year 2025, premium revenue was $43 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth, while adjusted earnings per share were $11.03, with a pretax margin of 1.6% [7][8] - The Medicaid Medical Care Ratio (MCR) for Q4 was 93.5%, and for the full year, it was 91.8% with a pretax margin of 2.8% [9][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Medicaid, the MCR for Q4 was 93.5%, impacted by retroactive premium rate actions, while the adjusted MCR was 92.3% with a pretax margin of 2% [7][20] - The Medicare MCR for Q4 was 97.5%, with elevated utilization affecting margins, while the full year MCR was 92.4% [21] - The Marketplace MCR was 99% for Q4, influenced by high utilization and prior period claim settlements, with a full year MCR of 90.6% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured a historic RFP win in Florida, expected to yield $6 billion in annual run rate premium, complementing previous contract wins in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Texas, contributing over $9 billion in Medicaid premium [11] - The company anticipates 2026 premium revenue of approximately $42 billion, slightly lower than 2025, with growth from the Florida CMS contract offset by a planned reduction in the Marketplace segment [12][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on dual-eligible members in Medicare, planning to exit the traditional MAPD product for 2027 [14] - The acquisition pipeline remains active, with the company looking to capitalize on opportunities in a challenging operating environment [12] - The company projects a low single-digit margin in Medicaid for 2026, indicating confidence in future rate restoration and earnings potential [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment in the 2025 results but remains confident in the long-term outlook, expecting Medicaid rates and medical cost trends to reach equilibrium [10][17] - The company believes the 2026 forecast for Medicaid represents a trough for managed Medicaid margins, with potential for recovery in subsequent years [17] - Management highlighted that every 100 basis points on the Medicaid MCR is worth nearly $5 per share, indicating significant upside potential [17] Other Important Information - The company reported a capital foundation that remains strong, with a parent company cash balance of approximately $223 million at year-end [23] - The adjusted G&A ratio for Q4 was 6.9%, reflecting disciplined cost management [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Variance in Medicaid margins across states and potential exit considerations - Management indicated that rates are generally underfunded across the portfolio, with no current plans for exits from any states [36] Question: Adjustments to benefit design in Medicaid - Management noted some sporadic adjustments but no wholesale shifts in benefit design across states [42][48] Question: Membership attrition assumptions for 2026 - Management expects a 2% membership attrition, attributing the decline to program integrity and tightening enrollment processes [50][52] Question: Size of Medicaid expansion enrollment and attrition sources - The Medicaid expansion population is approximately 1.3 million members, with expected attrition of 15%-20% due to new work requirements [59][60] Question: Positive and negative dynamics affecting 2026 guidance - Management believes there are no significant negative dynamics, with a focus on potential upside from rate adjustments and cost trends [62][64]

CENTENE CORPORATION 2026 GUIDANCE $7.5 $0 ($ IN BILLIONS) Medicaid $88 $34.5 $45 $4.5 Medicaid Com mercial Medicare Other Marketplace Medicare Advantage $174.6 $172.0 2026 Estimated Segment Premium & Service Revenue1 2026 Guidance Mid-point 2025 Actual Medicare PDP ($8.1) ($2.0) FEBRUARY 2026 Forward-Looking Statements All statements, other than statements of current or historical fact, contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, forward-looking statements ...

Core Insights - Centene reported a fourth-quarter loss despite an increase in revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability and stabilizing its Medicaid business [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced a loss in the fourth quarter, which contrasts with its higher revenue figures [1] Business Operations - Centene is actively working to restore profitability and stabilize its Medicaid operations, highlighting the focus on improving its core business segment [1]

Group 1 - Humana Inc. is a significant player in the S&P 500, recently highlighted for its exposure to Medicare Advantage, which has led to a notable sell-off in its stock [1] - The company was the third worst performer in the S&P last month, primarily due to the announcement from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services that payments to private insurers would remain nearly flat, contrary to Wall Street's expectation of a 5% increase [1] - Humana provides various medical insurance plans, prescription drug programs, and operates its own network of primary care centers and home health services [3] Group 2 - The investment community acknowledges both the risks and potential of Humana, but there is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater returns in a shorter time frame compared to Humana [4]

Group 1: Company Overview - Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) is a healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured families and commercial organizations in the US [4] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Mizuho increased its price target for Centene from $40 to $47 while maintaining a Neutral rating, indicating a cautious outlook due to decelerating healthcare utilization growth [1] - Wells Fargo raised its price target for Centene to $43 from $35 with an Equal Weight rating, expressing concerns about high uncertainty in Medicaid and Exchanges and a challenging environment for hospitals in 2026 [2] - Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes raised the price target for Centene to $59 from $45 with an Outperform rating, anticipating a sector-wide turnaround in government managed care starting in 2026 [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - Recent physician surveys suggest that healthcare utilization growth is decelerating, which may indicate that the utilization trend is currently peaking [1] - The managed care sector is expected to face challenges as post-COVID tailwinds diminish and legislative risks increase [2] - Current levels across all managed care organization sectors are viewed as attractive entry points for investors despite anticipated volatility [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market achieved its third consecutive year of double-digit returns in 2025, primarily driven by technology stocks, but is currently trading at high valuations and extreme concentration levels [4][9] - The Davis Opportunity Fund (DOF) outperformed the S&P 1500 Index with a return of +22.02% compared to the index's +17.02% in 2025, indicating strong performance driven by selective investment choices [8][9] - Active management is recommended in the current market environment to navigate high valuations and to capitalize on opportunities in well-chosen equities [5][19] Market Performance - The S&P 1500 Index is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of nearly 26 times, indicating high valuation levels [4] - The index is more concentrated than it has been in nearly three decades, with a significant portion of its value tied to a few megacap technology companies [4] Investment Strategy - The company advocates for a shift from passive index exposure to actively managed equity portfolios, emphasizing the importance of selective security choices and rational diversification [5][19] - The portfolio of DOF consists of 47 holdings compared to the S&P 1500 Index's 1,506, with a forward P/E ratio of 14.3x, significantly lower than the index's 25.6x [10] Sector Focus - The fund's investments include healthcare services, technology shares, and financial services, with a focus on companies that exhibit financial strength and competitive advantages [11][12][14] - Key holdings in healthcare include UnitedHealth, Viatris, and Quest Diagnostics, which are expected to benefit from the expanding U.S. healthcare market [12][13] Technology Investments - The fund holds positions in major technology companies such as Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon, while also investing in semiconductor firms like Applied Materials that offer strong value [14] - The strategy includes trimming positions in the "Magnificent 7" based on valuation considerations [14][22] Financial Sector - Capital One Financial is highlighted as a core holding, trading at a forward P/E of 13-14x, which is attractive compared to many technology firms [15][16] - The company is noted for its strong consumer finance division and significant AI-related patents, positioning it for future growth [16] Unique Opportunities - The portfolio includes special situations like Wesco International, which has outperformed the benchmark due to strong business fundamentals [17] - Investments in energy and commodities, such as Coterra and Teck Resources, reflect a strategic interest in sectors critical to electrification trends [18] Future Outlook - The company believes that the current market environment presents opportunities for active management to outperform passive strategies, especially given the valuation bubble in major indexes [19] - There is a call to reconsider surplus cash allocations in light of potential falling interest rates and the attractiveness of equities [19]