Financial Performance Highlights - Swire Pacific's underlying profit decreased by 2% to HK$5476 million in 1H2025, compared to HK$5576 million in 1H2024 [24, 34] - Recurring underlying profit decreased slightly by 1% to HK$4712 million in 1H2025 from HK$4762 million in 1H2024 [24, 34] - Ordinary dividend per 'A' share increased by 4% to HK$130 [24, 31, 34] - Revenue increased by 16% to HK$45774 million in 1H2025 from HK$39563 million in 1H2024 [34] Business Segment Performance - Property division's underlying profit increased by 15% to HK$4406 million [56] - Beverages division's attributable profit decreased by 9% to HK$803 million [89] - Aviation division (Cathay group) attributable profit increased by 1% to HK$1642 million [38, 98] - HAECO group recurring profit increased significantly by 40% to HK$561 million [30, 98, 118] Property Investment and Development - 67% committed in HK$100 billion investment plan [22, 58] - Completed the sale of interests in Brickell City Centre retail and parking spaces, as well as the adjacent sites, in Miami, USA [22] - Chinese Mainland portfolio contributed 42% attributable gross rental income in 1H2025 [71, 73] Beverages - Swire Coca-Cola - Revenue increased by 25% to HK$22188 million [89] - EBITDA margin remained almost flat at 128% [89, 91] - Inaugurated a new US$136 million flagship plant in Tay Ninh, Vietnam [78] Aviation - Cathay Pacific and HAECO - Cathay group reported a group profit of HK$43 billion [101] - HAECO group achieved a 40% growth in recurring profit [30, 98, 118]

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, specifically tracking economic activity and policy updates as of July 25, 2025. It includes high-frequency indicators related to consumption, production, investment, macro activity, and market policies [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments Consumption and Mobility - **Property Transactions**: The daily property transaction volume in the primary market across 30 cities was reported to be below last year's levels [2][12]. - **Traffic Congestion**: Traffic congestion levels were slightly below those of the previous year, indicating a potential decline in mobility [8][10]. - **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence remained depressed as of May, suggesting ongoing challenges in consumer sentiment [14]. Production and Investment - **Steel Demand**: Flat steel demand has slightly decreased but remains above last year's levels, while long steel demand has remained roughly flat and below year-ago levels [17][19]. - **Steel Production**: Overall steel production has edged down and is below last year's levels, indicating a contraction in the sector [19]. - **Local Government Bonds**: As of July 25, 2025, RMB 2.8 trillion in local government special bonds have been issued out of a total quota of RMB 4.4 trillion for the year, representing 63.1% of the annual quota [23][24]. - **Coal Consumption**: Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces was reported to be below last year's levels, reflecting a potential decline in energy demand [25]. Other Macro Activity - **Port Activity**: Official port container throughput has increased over the past two weeks and remains above year-ago levels, indicating a positive trend in trade activity [33]. - **Rare Earth Exports**: Chinese exports of rare earth materials saw a sharp increase in June, highlighting a potential area of growth in international trade [36]. Markets and Policy - **Interbank Rates**: Interbank repo rates have edged down recently, suggesting a potential easing of liquidity conditions in the banking system [43]. - **Oil Demand**: The nowcast indicates that China's oil demand hovered around 16.8 million barrels per day in the latest reading, reflecting stable demand levels [44]. - **Currency Movements**: The Chinese Yuan (CNY) appreciated against the USD and the CFETS basket in recent weeks, indicating strengthening currency dynamics [45]. - **Policy Announcements**: Several macro policy announcements have been made since March, focusing on investment, growth, and consumption, including the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and measures to stabilize employment [50]. Other Important Insights - The report highlights a shift in data sources for traffic congestion from Gaode map to Baidu map, which may affect future comparisons and analyses [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these indicators bi-weekly to capture the evolving economic landscape in China [1]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its various sectors.

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Investment & Acquisition - Philippine state pension fund Social Security System acquired a minority stake in a listed property firm [1] Real Estate - The listed property firm is behind Trump Tower in Manila [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the second half of 2025, expecting real GDP growth to slip below 4.5% year-on-year [3][9]. Core Insights - The divergence between real and nominal GDP has widened, with real GDP growth at 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, supported by front-loaded production and strong fiscal support, while nominal GDP fell to 3.9% year-on-year due to deepening deflation [2][9]. - Growth is anticipated to slow in the second half of 2025 due to weaker exports, fading fiscal impulse, and a continued deflation feedback loop [3][9]. - The report suggests that deflation is likely to persist, with a modest fiscal stimulus package of Rmb0.5-1 trillion expected in September/October, but this may not effectively address the underlying issues [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP growth was better than expected at 5.2% year-on-year, driven by fiscal and export front-loading [9]. - Nominal GDP year-on-year dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9%, marking the first growth below 4% since COVID-19 [2][9]. Sector Analysis - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in June, with manufacturing up by 7.4% [6]. - Fixed asset investment year-to-date growth was 2.8%, with manufacturing investment at 5.1% and infrastructure at 5.3% [6]. - The property sector continues to struggle, with sales down by 7.2% and new starts down by 13.1% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in growth to below 4.5% year-on-year in the second half of 2025 due to various factors including weaker global trade and continued deflation [3][9]. - June activity indicators show reduced transshipment and weaker retail sales, indicating a deepening drag from the housing sector [3][9].

Longtime City Developments director Philip Yeo is leaving the Singapore property giant’s board, after a recent feud rocked the billionaire Kwek clan that controls it and caused a rift in its boardroom https://t.co/kWSZt2eLhU ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]