Core Viewpoint - The recent 7.9 magnitude earthquake in central Myanmar has raised global concerns, resulting in significant casualties and potential disruptions to the country's critical mineral supply chains, particularly in rare earth elements and tin production [1][3]. Mineral Industry Impact - Myanmar is a major global producer of antimony, tin, and rare earth elements, with rare earths accounting for approximately 60% of China's total imports [3][9]. - The earthquake's impact on the rare earth supply chain is uncertain, with expectations that imports may not recover in the short term due to potential disruptions in production and transportation [13][14]. - Myanmar's rare earth production has seen significant growth, reaching 31,000 tons in 2020, but is projected to decline to 31,000 tons in 2024, representing 7.9% of global production [9][12]. Tin Production Insights - Myanmar ranks as the third-largest tin producer globally, with significant contributions from the Wa region, which accounts for 90% of the country's tin output [14][16]. - The earthquake may lead to increased risks of mine collapses and equipment damage, potentially halting production and affecting the supply chain [14][16]. - Tin prices have experienced volatility, with a notable increase from 211,000 CNY/ton to a peak of 290,500 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical tensions [16]. Geographical and Economic Context - Myanmar's strategic location between China and the Indian Ocean makes it a vital source of various minerals for China [3][17]. - The city of Mandalay, significantly impacted by the earthquake, serves as a crucial hub for jade trade and connects major mining areas to Chinese markets, highlighting the deep economic ties between Myanmar and China [17].

Industry Dynamics - Alphamin Resources has suspended operations at its Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with all mining personnel being evacuated except for a few essential staff for maintenance and safety [1] - The Bisie mine is the third largest tin mine globally, with a projected tin concentrate output of 17,300 tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin supply [1][2] Comments - The resumption of tin mining in Wa State, Myanmar, will take time, and supply disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo are intensifying the supply tightness [2] - The Wa State tin mines are expected to take about a month to resume production, with output anticipated in the second half of the year [2] - The suspension of operations at the Bisie mine may lead to a short-term production recovery challenge, further exacerbating the supply tightness in the tin market [2] - As of March 13, the processing fee for tin concentrate in Yunnan has dropped to 12,700 yuan per ton, which is at the 23rd percentile of the past five years [2] Demand Outlook - The AI wave and policies promoting growth, such as the replacement of old products, are expected to improve demand for tin [3] - In 2024, the global tin consumption structure is projected to have 7% for photovoltaic solder strips and 50% for other tin solder materials [3] - The rise of DeepSeek is accelerating the AI trend, making tin-based solder materials the preferred choice for connecting chips and circuit boards due to their excellent soldering performance [3] - The market reform of on-grid electricity prices for new energy is expected to drive a rush in the domestic photovoltaic industry, boosting demand for photovoltaic solder strips [3] - Policies promoting the replacement of old products are likely to increase demand for tin solder materials in home appliances and automotive sectors [3] - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.5 billion in January, a year-on-year increase of 18% [3] Supply and Inventory - Supply disruptions may lead to increased safety stock requirements in the downstream industry, intensifying short-term supply-demand conflicts [3] - As of March 13, LME and SHFE tin inventories were 3,500 tons and 7,082 tons respectively, down 57% and 60% from their 2024 peaks, both at the 38th percentile of the past five years [3] - Domestic social tin ingot inventory was 8,399 tons as of March 7, also down 57% from its 2024 peak, at the 37th percentile of the past four years [3] Long-term Outlook - The tin supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight in the medium to long term, with a widening short-term supply-demand gap likely to support rising tin prices [4] - The projected supply-demand gaps for the tin industry from 2025 to 2027 are -14,000 tons, -3,000 tons, and -8,000 tons, representing -4%, -1%, and -2% of demand respectively [4]