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高盛:中国对新房的需求将保持低位(英文)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 01:11
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China's demand for new homes will remain low, with annual new demand expected to be slightly below 5 million units from 2025 to 2030, a 75% decline from the peak of 20 million units in 2017, driven by demographic changes, policy shifts, and a reversal in investment demand [1][14][42]. Demographic Changes Impacting Housing Demand - China's population peaked in 2021 and is projected to decline, leading to a negative contribution to new home demand, shifting from an average of 1.5 million units per year in the 2010s to -0.5 million in the 2020s and -1.4 million in the 2030s [2][15]. - Urbanization is slowing, with the urbanization rate expected to increase by only 0.5 percentage points annually from 2024 to 2030, contributing an average of 3.8 million units per year in the 2020s, down from 6.4 million in the 2010s [2][18]. - The trend of shrinking household sizes is partially offsetting the negative impacts of population decline and urbanization, with contributions to new home demand expected to rise from 1.4 million units in the 2010s to 1.8 million in the 2020s [2][19]. Declining Demolition and Renovation Demand - The average demolition demand is projected to decrease from 4.7 million units per year in the 2010s to 2.7 million in the 2020s due to improved housing quality and a shift in government focus from demolition to renovation [3][27]. - The government’s shanty-town redevelopment program (2015-2018) accelerated demolitions, leading to a front-loaded demand that will result in fewer demolitions in the coming years [3][35]. Investment Demand Reversal - Investment demand, which was a significant driver of housing demand in the 2010s, is expected to turn negative, with an average of -1.8 million units per year from 2025 to 2030 and -1.2 million in the 2030s, as owners are likely to sell vacant apartments [4][39]. - The urban housing vacancy rate was approximately 20% in 2020, indicating a substantial number of empty apartments that could suppress new construction [4][41]. Overall Housing Demand Outlook - Overall, urban demand for new properties in China is expected to remain slightly below 5 million units per year, reflecting a combination of declining population, slowing urbanization, reduced demolition needs, and a fundamental shift in investment demand [4][42].
Canadian Apartment Properties: Not The Cheapest, But Still A Buy
Seeking Alpha· 2025-06-24 07:44
Group 1 - The article focuses on the Canadian residential real estate market, which is not typically on the radar of US investors [1] - The author, Rob Isbitts, emphasizes a non-traditional approach to income investing and aims to guide a community of investors through the modern investment climate [2] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to the Canadian residential real estate market [1][2]
买房坚持五不选,这不是危言耸听,而是实打实的经验和教训!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 04:57
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the "5 don't choose" principles when buying a house to avoid potential regrets and ensure a satisfactory living experience. Group 1: Location - Do not choose properties in remote locations as they may offer lower prices but significantly reduce convenience for commuting, schooling, and healthcare access [1] Group 2: Property Management - Do not choose properties with unreliable property management, as poor management can lead to issues such as frequent power and water outages, affecting the quality of life and property value [3] Group 3: House Layout - Do not choose houses with awkward layouts, as they can lead to discomfort and difficulties in daily living, such as noise from busy roads or poor ventilation in kitchens [5][6] Group 4: Construction Quality - Do not choose properties with quality issues, as substandard construction can result in significant repair costs and safety hazards over time [8] Group 5: Development Potential - Do not choose properties without development potential, as locations near transportation, schools, and commercial centers may have higher future appreciation, while areas lacking such potential should be avoided regardless of current low prices [10]
May existing home sales rise 0.8% vs. -1.3% estimated
CNBC Television· 2025-06-23 14:28
Good morning, Carl. Existing home sales in May rose very slightly, up 0.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.03% million units. According to the realtors, the street was looking for a slight decline.Sales were 0.7% lower than May of last year. That is the slowest pace since 2009 for May. Now, this count is based on closing, so contracts likely signed in March and April.The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was steady in March, but then shot higher over 7% in April. The increa ...
7月前,大量买家抢占墨尔本房市!Balwyn四居室高价出售,第一次看房立马下手
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-22 23:10
Core Insights - The Australian housing market is experiencing a significant recovery, with median house prices in major cities expected to rise sharply in the 2026 financial year, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne [1][2][7]. Group 1: Sydney Market - Sydney's median house price is projected to exceed AUD 1.8 million in the next financial year, with a growth rate of 7% anticipated [2][5]. - The market is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, which could further drive up prices [3][5]. - Current clearance rates in Sydney are around 70%, indicating strong demand and potential for price increases [5]. Group 2: Melbourne Market - Melbourne's median house price is expected to reach AUD 1.112 million, with a growth rate of 6% forecasted for FY26 [2][7]. - The market is entering a recovery phase after a period of underperformance, with increased buyer interest noted [7][9]. - Factors such as interest rate cuts and generational wealth transfer are expected to boost buyer capacity and market activity [9]. Group 3: Other Capital Cities - Brisbane's median house price is projected to approach AUD 1.1 million, with a stable growth rate of 5% [2]. - Perth is also expected to see its median price reach nearly AUD 1 million, with a growth rate of 5% [2]. - Adelaide's market is forecasted to grow at a slower pace of 4%, with a median price of approximately AUD 1.049 million [2].
4楼、14楼、18楼不能买?这三个楼层才是尽可能避开
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-21 14:31
购房,这看似简单的两个字,背后却隐藏着无数中国家庭的期许与无奈。结婚、落户、子女教育,这三 座大山压得许多人喘不过气,迫使他们将买房视为人生必经之路。 单身男性难觅佳偶?外来人口渴望 融入城市?孩子能否进入理想学府?这些问题都将购房推向了无可替代的地位。因此,即使付出巨大代 价,许多国人也只能无奈地踏上买房征程。 这漫长的购房路,充满了挑战。首付掏空积蓄,数十年房贷压弯了脊梁。即便如此,人们对房子的地 段、户型、楼层仍然挑剔不已。 迷信说法甚嚣尘上,许多人唯恐避之不及"4楼"、"14楼"、"18楼",将 这些楼层与不吉利联系起来,认为"4"谐音"死","14"谐音"要死","18"寓意"十八层地狱"。 然而,这 种说法缺乏科学依据。 "4"在音乐中代表"发",而实际居住在这些楼层的居民也并未遭遇特别不幸。 这 些所谓的忌讳,更多的是人们心理作用的体现。 然而,并非所有楼层都值得选择。有些楼层因其客观存在的缺陷,确实不适合购房。以下三类楼层,务 必谨慎考虑: 首先,底层住宅并非人人适宜。虽然底层住宅通常价格相对低廉,方便老人出行,部分开发商还赠送小 花园,但其缺点同样明显。采光不足导致室内昏暗潮湿,需要频繁开灯 ...
有钱人首选6个楼层,“十户九富”,并非迷信,都是经验之谈
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-21 07:39
朋友@小陈去年终于买到了理想中的房子,自从搬进新居,每次见面,朋友言语间总流露出一种"选对了"的满足感。他说:"自从住进这个楼层,感觉做什 么都顺了一些。" 这不是玄学。好的居住体验,确实能滋养人的心境与状态,进而微妙地影响生活的走向。 在房产领域多年,观察过无数家庭的选择轨迹后,我发现:那些深谙生活本质、追求品质的"有钱人",在楼层选择上,往往有着同样的智慧共识。 他们深知,真正左右楼层选择的,是实实在在的居住价值、生活便利性、环境舒适度以及长远的资产潜力。 而有些楼层之所以被称为"十户九富",其实也纯粹是多年经验的总结。 买房不仅看地段、配套,楼层选择也特别重要。 01、带院子的一楼: 一层带私家花园的户型,在精英圈层中始终散发着不可替代的魅力。 更重要的是,在大露台上做任何事,都不用担心被邻居投诉,因为下面还是自己家。而且大露台可以让我们有更多自由发挥的空间。 03、"凤凰层" 所谓的"凤凰层"其实就是次顶层,它可是公认的"黄金楼层"。因为它完美规避了顶层的潜在困扰,却几乎继承了顶层的所有核心优势。 不仅视野开阔无遮挡,又远离了地面的喧嚣,几乎没有噪音污染;也没有顶层渗漏的担忧, 而且相比顶层一到夏天就 ...
票选|2025上半年全国十大轻奢作品
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-21 02:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the public voting phase for the "Top Ten Works" in the 2025 semi-annual evaluation of Chinese real estate products, emphasizing the importance of product quality in the housing market [1][2][10]. Group 1: Voting Process - The public voting for the top ten projects will take place from June 17 to June 23, with expert evaluations occurring on June 17-18 [2][12]. - Each participant can vote once per category, selecting up to ten projects, with the final vote count being the cumulative total of valid votes [13]. Group 2: Evaluation Framework - The evaluation process includes expert reviews, public voting, and assessment models, culminating in the announcement of the "Top Ten High-end/Luxury/Quality Works" and the "China Good House Comprehensive Award/Individual Award" by the end of June [11][12]. - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance product quality in the real estate sector, addressing housing pain points and improving residential product standards [10]. Group 3: Project Showcase - The shortlisted projects will be showcased online to provide detailed information about each entry, facilitating informed voting by the public [8]. - The article highlights various projects from different developers, showcasing their architectural styles and product types, such as modern high-rise and low-density residential buildings [14][16][18][20][22].
票选|2025上半年全国十大轻奢作品
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-20 09:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the initiation of the public voting phase for the "Top Ten Works" in the 2025 semi-annual evaluation of Chinese real estate products, emphasizing the importance of product quality in the housing sector [1][2][10]. Group 1: Voting Process - The public voting for the top ten projects will take place from June 17 to June 23, with expert evaluations occurring on June 17-18 [2][12]. - Each participant can vote once per category, selecting up to ten projects, with the final vote count being the cumulative total of valid votes [13]. Group 2: Evaluation Framework - The evaluation process includes expert reviews, public voting, and assessment models, culminating in the announcement of the "Top Ten High-end/Luxury/Quality Works" and the "China Good House Comprehensive Award/Individual Award" by the end of June [11][12]. - The "Good House" initiative encourages real estate companies to enhance product quality and address housing pain points, with the "Product Power 100" evaluation being conducted annually since 2018 [10]. Group 3: Featured Projects - Various projects have been highlighted, including: - Shanghai Poly Haishangyin, a modern low-rise residential project [14]. - Guangzhou Fuxiangyuan, featuring modern and elegant architectural styles [24]. - Chengdu招商锦城序, showcasing unique regional characteristics and multiple courtyard spaces [52]. - The projects represent a mix of high-rise and low-rise residential types, with modern architectural styles being predominant across the board [16][20][30].
年轻人咋都抢老小区顶楼?内行揭秘,太现实了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 08:39
Core Insights - The article discusses the rising popularity of old residential buildings' top floors among young buyers, highlighting five key reasons for this trend. Group 1: Price Advantage - The price of top-floor units in old residential areas is significantly lower than that of new buildings, often by several thousand yuan per square meter, making it an attractive option for young buyers with limited budgets [3]. Group 2: Location Advantage - Old residential buildings are typically located in city centers with well-developed amenities such as schools, hospitals, supermarkets, and public transport, making them more appealing than new developments in suburban areas [6]. Group 3: Unique Living Experience - The top floors offer unique advantages, including spacious terraces for personal use, excellent lighting and ventilation, and a quieter living environment, which aligns with modern health-conscious lifestyles [5]. Group 4: Potential for Urban Renewal - Many cities are actively promoting the renovation of old residential areas, including the installation of elevators, which enhances living comfort and increases property value, making top-floor purchases a bet on future appreciation [5]. Group 5: Speculative Investment - Some young buyers view purchasing top-floor units as a high-risk, high-reward investment, hoping for substantial compensation in case of future demolition projects, with potential returns significantly exceeding initial investments [8].