Core Viewpoint - The current economic climate, characterized by a trade war and uncertainty, may not seem favorable for investing in discretionary travel stocks like Booking Holdings [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for investment in Booking Holdings despite the ongoing trade war and economic uncertainty [1] - The author expresses a personal interest in uncovering investment opportunities across various sectors, including equities and cryptocurrencies [1] - The author has a background in communications and an MBA, indicating a level of expertise in investment analysis [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author does not hold any positions in the mentioned companies but may consider initiating a long position in Booking Holdings within the next 72 hours [2] - The article emphasizes that the views expressed are personal opinions and not influenced by any compensation or business relationships [2][4] - The author encourages readers to conduct their own due diligence regarding investment decisions [3]

Group 1 - The domestic tourism market in China shows a strong recovery during the "May Day" holiday, with multiple trends emerging, including family travel and pet-friendly outings [2][3] - Long-distance travel destinations have performed exceptionally well, with ticket sales for scenic spots in regions like Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Gansu seeing significant year-on-year growth of 1-2 times [2] - The number of inbound travel orders has surged by 130% compared to last year, with new experiences such as agricultural tourism and "China shopping" becoming popular among foreign tourists [2] Group 2 - The trend of family travel is on the rise, with 35% of car rental orders on Ctrip being for family trips, an increase of 11 percentage points [3] - The self-driving travel market is experiencing an upgrade in consumption, with average car rental spending increasing by 24% year-on-year and the average rental duration extending to 4 days [3] - The cruise tourism market has fully recovered, with bookings for cruise products during the holiday increasing by 120% compared to last year and 140% compared to 2019 [4] Group 3 - The integration of national cultural elements into tourism is deepening, with searches for intangible cultural heritage-themed tours skyrocketing and related ticket bookings increasing by 132% [4] - A reverse tourism trend is emerging, focusing on escaping crowds and enhancing experiences, with rural tourism bookings rising by nearly 20% during the holiday [4] - The market is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade," reflecting a strong demand for differentiated experiences in tourism [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [30] - The industry investment rating is "Outperform," suggesting an expected industry index increase of over 5% within the same timeframe [30] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market indices rose, with a net inflow of 1.185 billion CNY from the Hong Kong Stock Connect over five trading days, totaling 568.747 billion CNY year-to-date, which is 76.44% of the total net inflow for 2024 [1] - Major stocks receiving significant southbound capital inflows include Meituan (4.949 billion CNY), Alibaba (1.355 billion CNY), and Kangfang Biotech (0.753 billion CNY) [1][25] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently at a relatively low valuation, with a projected PE of 14 times for 2026 [1] Summary by Sections AI Developments - Alibaba Cloud launched the Qwen3 series, with flagship model Qwen3-235B achieving a score of 70.7 in benchmark tests [2] - Xiaomi released its first inference model, MiMo-7B, which outperformed larger models in mathematical reasoning and coding tasks [9] Smart Driving - Short-term policy tightening on low-level smart driving promotions is expected, but high-level smart driving may still receive policy support [2] - The trend of mainstream manufacturers adopting LiDAR technology is confirmed, with a positive outlook for leading manufacturers like XPeng, Xiaomi, and Li Auto [2] OTA and Tourism - Domestic tourism remains strong, with a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in domestic scenic spot ticket bookings and a 141% increase in inbound travel orders [3] - The AI application "Ask One" by Fliggy has received positive feedback, indicating a growing trend for AI agents in travel services [3] Cross-Border E-commerce - The U.S. has ended the tariff exemption for small packages from China valued under 800 USD, leading to price increases on platforms like TEMU and Shein [3] - A shift from full to semi-managed and local warehousing is anticipated, with a recommendation to monitor policy implementation closely [3] New Listings - Companies like Seres and Mingming Hen Mang have submitted IPO applications, with Seres focusing on electric vehicles and Mingming Hen Mang being the largest chain retailer in China [4] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,980.74 points, reflecting a 2.74% increase [10] - The report highlights the performance of various stocks, with Alibaba's market cap at 205.12 billion CNY and a projected PE of 12 for 2025 [20]

Core Viewpoint - Expedia Group (EXPE) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 8, with revenues estimated at $3.03 billion, reflecting a 4.76% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share projected at 42 cents, indicating a 100% increase from the previous year [1][4]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPE's first-quarter 2025 revenues is $3.03 billion, a 4.76% increase from the prior year's quarter [1]. - The earnings consensus is 42 cents per share, revised down by 2 cents in the last 30 days, but still suggests a 100% increase year-over-year [1]. Historical Performance - EXPE has exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 45.86% [2]. Growth Factors - The company's performance is anticipated to be influenced by international demand, strategic investments, and cost discipline [4]. - Gross bookings are projected to grow by 4% to 6%, with revenue growth expected between 3% to 5%, excluding a two-point foreign exchange headwind and the Easter shift [5]. - Underlying growth, when excluding these factors, is expected to be between 7% to 9% [5]. Segment Performance - Vrbo is likely to continue its growth momentum, supported by expanded urban inventory and improved supply quality [6]. - Brand Expedia is expected to benefit from merchandising actions in air and package products, driving incremental bookings without additional marketing costs [6]. - The B2B segment, which accounted for 27% of total bookings in 2024, is expected to remain strong, particularly in the APAC region [7]. - Advertising revenues, which grew by 25% in the fourth quarter, are anticipated to continue being a significant contributor to top-line growth [8]. Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA margins for the first quarter are expected to remain flat to slightly up year-over-year, reflecting sustained overhead and marketing efficiency [9]. - Cost-saving actions taken in 2024 are expected to support profitability despite seasonal and foreign exchange pressures [9]. Earnings Outlook - According to the Zacks model, EXPE has a positive Earnings ESP of +14.86% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [10].

"与此同时，游玩体验的多样性和趣味性越发重要，海岛度假、雨林徒步、沙漠骆驼骑行、星空露营、 茶山采风等玩法备受消费者青睐，避开人流、躺平式度假、深度体验在地文化等需求集中释放。"飞猪 旅行相关负责人表示。 "近年来，高速公路、高铁及机场网络不断拓展，为低线城市游客的出行提供了极大的便利，三四线城 市游客旅游渗透率不断提高，并逐渐成为旅游市场的新兴力量。"途牛旅游网相关负责人表示，今年"五 一"假期，六盘水、葫芦岛、漳州、遵义等客源地出游人次同比增长均超过了70%。此外，大同、营 口、揭阳、宿迁、南平、阜阳等地用户的出游热情也保持了较高的增长趋势。 新华财经北京5月6日电（记者丁雅雯、李唐宁）旅游平台的数据显示，今年"五一"假期，"反向旅游"再 度走热，县城高星酒店预定火爆。 （文章来源：新华财经） "五一"假期，不少人将目光投向了性价比更高的县域地区。美团旅行显示，今年"五一"假期，县城高星 酒店预订量同比增长超80%。相比拥堵的热门城市，"诗画江南"浙江桐庐县、"长诗圣地"安徽怀宁 县、"皖北江南"安徽凤台县、"上梅古镇、蚩尤故里"湖南新化县均成为人们寻找"松弛感"的热门之选。 "'味蕾游'的走红也让众多小 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Expedia (EXPE) will report quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, reflecting a 100% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $3.03 billion, a 4.8% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.9% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [2]. - Prior to earnings releases, revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts predict 'Revenue- B2B' will reach $924.59 million, marking an 11% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenue by Service Type- Lodging' is expected to be $2.36 billion, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Revenue- Trivago' is projected at $74.76 million, indicating a 6.8% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Revenue by Service Type- Air' is estimated at $114.41 million, suggesting a slight decline of 0.5% year-over-year [6]. - 'Revenue- Advertising, Media and other' is expected to reach $277.37 million, a 12.3% increase from the previous year [6]. - 'Revenue- International' is projected at $1.22 billion, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-over-year [7]. - 'Revenue- United States' is estimated at $1.85 billion, indicating a 3.3% year-over-year change [7]. Gross Bookings - Analysts forecast 'Gross bookings - Total' to reach $31.85 billion, compared to $30.16 billion from the previous year [7]. - 'Gross bookings - Merchant' is expected to be $18.83 billion, up from $16.86 billion year-over-year [8]. - 'Gross bookings - Agency' is projected at $13.81 billion, compared to $13.30 billion from the prior year [9]. Key Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Stayed room nights/ Booked room nights' stands at 106, up from 101 year-over-year [8]. - 'Stayed Room Night /Booked room nights Growth' is expected to be 8.1%, compared to 7% in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Expedia have returned +14.1%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% [9].

Core Insights - The travel and tourism sector in China experienced a significant surge during the "May Day" holiday, with a 30% increase in travel orders compared to the same period in 2023, marking the highest level of interest in the past three years [1][2] - The rise in travel interest is attributed to diverse travel experiences such as culinary tours, performance tourism, and coastal trips, with online dining transactions from non-local tourists skyrocketing by 189% [1] - There is a growing trend towards county-level tourism, with bookings for high-star hotels in county areas increasing by over 80% year-on-year, as travelers seek more affordable and less crowded destinations [1] - The "please take 4 days off and rest for 11" trend has led to increased interest in long-distance travel, with certain northern regions seeing tourism transaction growth exceeding 113% [1] Travel Demographics and Preferences - The post-95 generation accounted for 45% of travel orders during the "May Day" holiday, indicating a strong demand for personalized and in-depth travel experiences [2] - There was a remarkable 390% year-on-year increase in leisure camping orders, with Beijing, Chengdu, Huzhou, Xi'an, and Hangzhou being the top five cities for such bookings [2] - Orders related to clubs and exhibitions also saw a significant increase, with a growth rate of over 200% [2] Consumer Behavior and Promotions - Online platforms, particularly Meituan, played a crucial role in stimulating consumer spending through promotional activities, including the "Wonderful May Day" campaign, which offered various dining and entertainment discounts [2] - As of May 5, 2023, orders for local specialty dishes from non-local tourists increased by over 105%, highlighting a strong preference for regional cuisine [2] - The trend of traveling alongside performances has emerged as a new way to experience tourism, with orders for packages related to music festivals and concerts rising by 180% during the holiday [2]

Core Insights - Airbnb reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4% [1] - Revenues reached $2.272 billion, a 6.1% year-over-year increase, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.44% [1] - The Gross Booking Value for Q1 2025 was $24.5 billion, up 7% year-over-year [2] Revenue Details - Nights and Experiences Booked totaled 143.1 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [2] - Average Daily Rate (ADR) was $171, down 1% year-over-year, but grew 1% excluding forex [2] - Nights booked on the app increased 17% year-over-year, comprising 58% of total nights booked [3] Operating Details - Adjusted EBITDA was $765 million, a 3.7% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.8% [4] - Operating income for Q1 2025 was $38 million, with an operating margin of 1.7%, down 3% year-over-year [5] Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $11.492 billion, up from $10.6 billion at the end of 2024 [6] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.8 billion for Q1 2025, down from $1.9 billion in the year-ago quarter [6] - Free cash flow generated in Q1 2025 was $1.781 billion, with $4.356 billion over the trailing 12 months [7] Share Repurchase - Airbnb repurchased shares worth $807 million in Q1 2025, with $2.5 billion remaining under repurchase authorization [7] Q2 Forecast - For Q2 2025, Airbnb expects revenues between $2.99 billion and $3.05 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9-11% [8] - ADR is anticipated to remain flat year-over-year, with moderate growth expected in Nights and Experiences Booked [10] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase year-over-year, with EBITDA margins flat or slightly down compared to Q2 2024 [10] 2025 Outlook - For the full year 2025, Airbnb expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.5%, indicating strong profitability while pursuing growth [11]

Group 1: AI Implementation - Airbnb has begun rolling out an AI-powered customer service bot in the U.S., with 50% of users already utilizing it, and plans to extend this feature to all users this month [1] - The introduction of the AI bot has resulted in a 15% reduction in the need for customers to contact live human agents [2] - Airbnb is taking a cautious approach to AI, focusing first on customer service before exploring other applications like travel planning [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Competitors such as Expedia and Booking.com are heavily investing in AI technologies, offering features like itinerary building and real-time travel updates [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - Airbnb reported a total revenue of $2.27 billion for the first quarter, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year, but forecasts for the current quarter are slightly below analysts' expectations due to anticipated slowing travel demand [6]

Core Insights - The tourism market during the "May Day" holiday in 2025 is experiencing a significant increase in activity, with the National Railway Group expecting to transport 144 million passengers over the 8-day period, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1] - To accommodate the peak travel demand, the National Railway Group plans to operate an average of over 12,000 passenger trains daily, utilizing measures such as train doubling and night high-speed trains to enhance capacity [1] - Data from Ctrip indicates that the distance of travel for tourists has notably extended, with over 80% of accommodation bookings being for intercity stays during the "May Day" period [1] - Tuniu's data shows a remarkable increase in group booking numbers, with a 220% week-on-week growth in reservations for the "May Day" holiday [1]