Core Insights - China's coal mine output is expected to decline marginally with a negative CAGR of 0.1% due to competition from renewable sources and issues with lower-quality coal reserves [1] - The Asia Pacific region is projected to account for 72.7% of global coal production in 2024, with China being the dominant producer at 71.3% [2] - The US trade policies under Donald Trump are creating market volatility and geopolitical shifts in the mining industry, prompting countries to adjust their strategic positions [3] - Major mining hubs in the Asia Pacific face challenges such as infrastructure gaps, high operational costs, and policy instability [4] - The Asia Pacific holds significant mineral reserves, accounting for 56.6% of total rare earths and substantial shares of other minerals [5] - China produces a significant portion of global minerals, including 51.8% of coal and 43.2% of lead in 2024, positioning itself as a central player in the global mining industry [6] - The outlook for China's mining sector varies across commodities, with critical minerals expected to see growth while precious metals face declines [7] - India is projected to increase its coal production by 5.2% to 1,511.2 million tons by 2030, driven by government initiatives [8] - Other key minerals in India are expected to see negative growth due to mine closures and lack of new capacity [9] - Indonesia is a leading producer of nickel and cobalt, with significant growth expected in both sectors through 2030 [10][11] - The Philippines is undergoing regulatory reforms to enhance its mining sector, focusing on sustainable practices and fair revenue sharing [12] - Nickel production in the Philippines is expected to remain flat due to planned mine closures [13] Industry Trends - The Asia Pacific's coal production is projected to grow marginally at a CAGR of 0.8% from 2025 to 2030, with China maintaining a dominant position [2] - The mining sector in the Asia Pacific is characterized by abundant reserves and strong domestic demand, but faces challenges from geopolitical pressures and internal inefficiencies [4][5] - Critical minerals are driving growth in the mining sector, with lithium, graphite, and uranium expected to see steady increases [7] - The regulatory environment in the Philippines aims to promote transparency and sustainable mining practices, which could impact future investments [12]

Company Overview - Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. is a leading coal producer focusing on metallurgical and thermal coal markets, leveraging a portfolio of active mines and preparation facilities to supply coal to both domestic and international customers [2] - The company operates primarily in Virginia and West Virginia, generating revenue through coal mining, processing, and sales to industrial customers and utilities [3] Recent Developments - As of January 8, 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources shares were priced at $230.91, reflecting a 23.2% increase over the prior year and outperforming the S&P 500 by 4.39 percentage points [3] - Crocodile Capital Partners GmbH established a new position in Alpha Metallurgical Resources by acquiring 205,119 shares valued at approximately $41.00 million, representing 24.51% of Crocodile Capital's assets under management (AUM) [5][6] Stock Performance - AMR stock has experienced a strong rally over the last six months, with shares more than doubling in value and nearing a 52-week high, trading at around $230 per share [6] - An insider, Director Kenneth S. Courtis, purchased over $6 million worth of AMR stock last month, indicating confidence in the company's prospects [7] Market Position and Outlook - Alpha Metallurgical Resources is well-positioned heading into 2026, as demand for power is expected to rise due to the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and related data centers, alongside increasing natural gas prices which enhance the economic appeal of coal [8]

Core Insights - Warrior Met Coal, Inc. has completed the Blue Creek Mine project, investing approximately $1 billion, which will create over 300 new jobs in the area [1][6] - The Blue Creek Mine is expected to produce an average of 6.0 million short tons of metallurgical coal annually for the first ten years, increasing Warrior's annual capacity by about 75% [2] - The project includes advanced infrastructure such as a rail load-out facility and a unique curved overland belt for coal transportation, reducing truck traffic and minimizing local community impact [3] Investment and Economic Impact - Significant investments from stakeholders, including over $200 million from Norfolk Southern and the Alabama Port Authority, are supporting the Blue Creek project and enhancing logistics capacity [4] - The Blue Creek Mine will access one of the largest untouched metallurgical coal reserves in North America, with a mine life expected to exceed 40 years [5][6] - The project is anticipated to have a long-term economic impact on rural Alabama, contributing to job creation and sustainability [6] Company Profile - Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based supplier focused on non-thermal metallurgical coal for the global steel industry, operating efficient longwall mining operations in Alabama [8] - The company produces high-quality hard-coking coal (HCC) with low sulfur content, making it suitable for steel production [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Range Impact, Inc. has announced the acquisition of the Premier Elkhorn and Cambrian Coal mine complexes, marking a strategic shift towards land ownership and reclamation in Appalachia [1][8] Acquisitions - The Premier Elkhorn Mine Complex consists of approximately 13,000 surface acres and 42,500 mineral interest acres, containing metallurgical and thermal coal reserves, with 34 mining permits and $44 million in reclamation bonds [3] - The Cambrian Coal Mine Complex includes around 2,600 surface acres and additional leasable mineral interests, with 9 mining permits and $10 million in reclamation bonds [4] - Both complexes are located in eastern Kentucky and were acquired through a newly created subsidiary, Range Bluegrass Land LLC, which assumed reclamation obligations from Reckoning Reclamation LLC [2] Strategic Partnerships - Range Bluegrass has entered into an Option Agreement with MRR CNG, LLC for approximately 1,500 acres of surface land at the Premier Elkhorn Mine Complex for future waste disposal facility development, receiving $500,000 at the time of the grant [5] - A Membership Interest Option and Cash Distribution Right Agreement was established with Wicks Building LLC, allowing Wicks to receive 50% of cash distributions and convert this right into ownership of 50% of Range Bluegrass [6] - Consulting Agreements with MRR and F & G LLC were signed, with an initial fee of $1 million and scheduled additional fees of $2 million for 2026 and 2027 [7] Business Model Transition - The company has shifted from a service-based business model focused on reclamation services to a land ownership model aimed at unlocking land value through reclamation activities and generating recurring revenue streams [11] - The sale of Collins Building & Contracting, Inc. marks the company's exit from service-based reclamation work, allowing a focus on revitalizing former coal mine sites [9][11] Portfolio Expansion - With the recent acquisitions, the company now owns four significant land investments, totaling approximately 30,000 acres of surface land and 150,000 acres of mineral interests across West Virginia and Kentucky [8]

Peabody Energy ( BTU ), the largest US-listed coal miner, has seen its valuation jump by more than 300% over the past 8 months. In this piece, I will try to demonstrate that BTU should be avoided, if you do notAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is tightening export controls on resource products, including palm oil, tin, and nickel, which is impacting global commodity pricing and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Palm Oil - As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia is using export restrictions, tax adjustments, and biodiesel blending policies to elevate global palm oil prices and increase price volatility [1] - The government's actions have led to a long-term increase in the price center of global palm oil [1] Group 2: Tin - Indonesia, being the second-largest tin supplier globally, has implemented strict measures against illegal tin mining, which has driven the LME three-month tin price to rise, reaching over $43,000 per ton by December 2025, a three-year high [1] Group 3: Nickel - As the largest nickel resource country, Indonesia's proposal to significantly reduce nickel ore supply quotas and adjust pricing rules is stimulating international nickel prices, which have rebounded from around $14,000 per ton to nearly $17,000 per ton by early 2026 [1] Group 4: Coal - Indonesia, the largest exporter of thermal coal, is reintroducing export tariffs, adjusting price benchmarks, and tightening foreign exchange management, which is raising concerns about the impact on international and domestic coal prices [1][2] - The new coal export policies are expected to increase operational costs for coal companies, potentially reducing Indonesia's international competitiveness [2][3] Group 5: Industry Confidence - The recent coal export policies are seen as a combination of measures that may negatively affect industry confidence, with coal producers expressing concerns over profit margins being squeezed due to increased costs [3][4] - The new regulations require resource exporters to deposit all foreign exchange earnings in state banks for at least one year, reducing cash flow flexibility for companies [4] Group 6: Market Dynamics - Despite the tightening of export regulations, global coal demand is not significantly contracting, with the IEA projecting a 0.5% increase in global coal demand in 2025 [7] - However, the tightening of export policies may weaken Indonesia's comparative advantage in the global coal trade, especially as major importing countries shift towards higher calorific value coal [7][8] Group 7: Impact on China - The new coal export policies from Indonesia are expected to have a limited impact on China's thermal coal market, which is currently experiencing weak conditions [8][9] - Analysts suggest that while Indonesia's policies may raise the cost of coal imports, they are unlikely to significantly drive up domestic coal prices in China due to existing market dynamics [9][10]

Company Overview - Ramaco Resources is a leading U.S. metallurgical coal producer with a diversified portfolio of mining assets across West Virginia, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, leveraging significant controlled mineral reserves to supply high-quality coal to the steel industry [5] - The company generates revenue through the extraction and sale of metallurgical coal to domestic and international steel producers and coke plants, serving blast furnace steel mills and coke plants in the U.S. and international metallurgical coal consumers [8] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Ramaco Resources experienced a 28% year-over-year revenue decline to $121 million due to softened pricing, while cash costs decreased to $97 per ton [9] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at $8.4 million despite lower realized prices, and liquidity reached a record $272 million, including over $77 million in net cash, indicating strong balance sheet strength amid volatile coal markets [9] Investment Position - Discovery Capital Management increased its stake in Ramaco Resources by 4.18 million shares, bringing its total holdings to 5.53 million shares with a market value of $182.21 million, which now accounts for about 10% of the fund's reportable U.S. equity AUM, making it the largest holding [2][3] - As of the latest data, Ramaco Resources shares were priced at $18.00, reflecting a 78% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which rose about 16% in the same period [3] Strategic Focus - Ramaco Resources is transitioning towards a dual-platform model that includes rare earth and critical minerals development at the Brook Mine in Wyoming, a project supported by federal interest and early-stage infrastructure investment, providing optionality that typical coal peers lack [10]

Financial Flexibility - Ramaco Resources, Inc. announced an amendment to its Revolving Credit Agreement with KeyBank, increasing overall commitments to $500 million, which includes a $350 million revolving commitment and a $150 million accordion feature, up from previous commitments of $200 million and $75 million respectively [1][4] - The maturity date of the credit facility has been extended from 2029 to 2030, providing the company with significant financial flexibility to support its long-term growth objectives [1][4] Capital Market Transactions - Since August 2025, Ramaco has engaged in nearly $1 billion of capital market and banking transactions, indicating strong financial activity and support for its growth initiatives [2] Company Operations - Ramaco Resources operates as a dual platform critical mineral company, focusing on high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, while also developing coal, rare earth, and critical minerals in Wyoming [5] - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes in Central Appalachia and is in the initial stages of production for a coal mine and rare earth development near Sheridan, Wyoming [5] Rare Earth Development - In 2023, a major deposit of primary magnetic rare earths and critical minerals was discovered at the Wyoming mine, which is expected to enhance the company's production capabilities in this emerging sector [6]

Coal mining capex growth accelerated to +9.3%y/y in 9M'25 (after +9%y/y in FY'24, +12%y/y in FY'23, +24%y/y in FY'22, +11%y/y in FY'21) — Coal mining capex was up 6%y/y in 2018, up 30%y/y in 2019 and down 1%y/y n FY'20 Vi e w p o i n t | 26 Dec 2025 09:00:08 ET │ 9 pages Global Metals & Mining Coal mining capex in China up 9% y/y in 1Q-3Q'25, more than overall mining capex growth rate CITI'S TAKE Despite the decarbonization trend in China, and on a global scale, China for now remains reliant on coal as its ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenhua Energy is acquiring twelve assets from its parent company, China National Energy Group, for a total consideration of RMB133.6 billion, which is expected to significantly enhance its coal resources and production capacity [1][3]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition will be financed with 30% of the consideration paid through the issuance of 1,363 million new A shares at RMB30.38, while the remaining 70% will be paid in cash [2]. - The deal is subject to approvals from relevant government authorities and independent shareholders [4]. Impact on Company Metrics - The acquisition is projected to increase Shenhua's coal resources by 65%, recoverable coal reserves by 98%, and coal output by 57% [3]. - Installed power generation capacity will rise by 28%, and production capacity of polyolefin will increase by 2.1 times [3]. - The proforma EPS is expected to enhance by 6% in 2024 and 5% in the first seven months of 2025 [3]. Shareholder Protection - To protect minority shareholders, profit guarantees have been secured for various coal assets for the next three to six years, although there are no guarantees for power and coal-chemical operations [4][6]. Financial Considerations - The target assets will require total capital expenditure of RMB70-80 billion over the next five years, but the operating cash flow from these assets is expected to cover this expenditure [5]. - The consideration values the target assets at 17 times the estimated earnings for 2025 based on annualized earnings for the first seven months of 2025 [4]. Concerns - Approximately 60% of the coal resources from the target assets are located in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, where Shenhua currently has no operations, and coal prices are lower compared to Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi Province, potentially affecting long-term profitability [6]. Rating and Target Price - The company's forecasts and HOLD rating remain unchanged, with a target price for Shenhua's H shares set at HK$42.5, reflecting a 5% average dividend yield for 2025-2027 [7].