过去两个月，中美达成的贸易战休战协议刚好已经过去一年，特朗普政府曾豪言壮语，要迅速削减美国对中国稀土的依赖。可是，现实远比他们预想的要复 杂得多。今天，我们就来聊聊美国这场试图摆脱中国稀土的战役，究竟打得如何了？在过去的两年里，为了摆脱对中国稀土的依赖，美国可没少下功夫。动 用了重金，寻求全球盟友，几乎是使尽了所有手段。但结果呢？恐怕会让不少人大失所望。 说到美国的稀土计划，MPMaterials这家公司便是一个绕不开的名字。美国国防部可是重金下注，拿出了4亿美元买下这家公司15%的股份，并且承诺，按每 公斤110美元的价格进行托底。看起来，这副架势，似乎是信心满满，志在必得。美国将自己的赌注押在了位于怀俄明州的布鲁克稀土矿上，矿区一旦复 工，德克萨斯州还要建设一个永磁工厂，计划到2028年投产，前景看似光明。然而，现实却让人颇为尴尬。虽然上个月第一批产品倒是下线了，可产量不过 是实验室级别，远没有达到商业化规模。更讽刺的是，这些精矿最终还得运往中国进行加工。这到底算什么去中国化呢？绕了一圈，最终还是回到了原点。 然而，美国并不仅仅满足于自己单打独斗，还试图拉上盟友一起合作。G7国家联合推出了所谓的关键矿产战 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange (referred to as "Rare Exchange") has officially launched its rare earth price index on multiple platforms, aiming to serve as a price "barometer" and "guideline" for the rare earth product circulation sector in China [1][5]. Group 1: Rare Earth Price Index - The Rare Exchange was established by 13 major rare earth enterprises and related institutions, including Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, to create a reliable price index based on trading data and rigorous index models [5]. - The index covers mainstream rare earth products such as lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, and neodymium, with plans to optimize and expand its content and applications [5]. Group 2: Price Data and Trends - As of January 9, the average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 624,900 yuan/ton, and metallic praseodymium-neodymium was 760,700 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared to the first trading day of 2026 [5]. - The price of rare earth concentrate for the first quarter of 2026 has been adjusted to 26,834 yuan/ton (excluding tax), reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter [5][7]. - The price adjustments for rare earth concentrate have seen six consecutive increases since the third quarter of 2024, indicating a positive trend in the market [5].

Funding and Strategic Partnership - American Resources Corp has secured a $200 million funding facility to fully capitalize its ReElement Technologies division, which is expected to enhance production capabilities significantly [1][6] - The partnership with Transition Equity Partners emphasizes strategic alignment and value creation beyond just financial terms, focusing on execution and operational success [2][7][8] Production Capacity and Materials - The capital will enable the production of up to 8,000 metric tons of rare earth oxides, including 1,500 metric tons of yttrium and gadolinium, as well as germanium and gallium [2][6] - The company aims to meet market demand for critical elements like samarium, which is essential for defense applications, with materials produced at 99.99% purity [3][11] Infrastructure Development - The Marion plant is projected to be operational by Q2, with over 75% of the necessary equipment already acquired and ongoing installations [4][12] - Plans are in place to expand usable space at the Marion facility to over 250,000 square feet, enhancing operational capacity [12][13]

Core Insights - Beijing's latest strategy in its dispute with Tokyo involves an immediate ban on exports of items with potential military applications to Japan, particularly targeting rare-earth magnets [1][13] Industry Impact - Rare-earth magnets, made from neodymium and praseodymium, are crucial components in various technologies, including electric vehicles and missile-guidance systems [2][13] - Japan has prepared for such supply chain disruptions by diversifying its sources and building stockpiles, reducing its vulnerability to China's threats [3][8] Supply Chain Dynamics - Despite Japan's efforts, it still relies on China for approximately 70% of its rare-earth supplies, indicating a significant dependency that could be problematic in the face of export restrictions [8] - Previous instances of China's export restrictions have not severely impacted Japan, as it has maintained production capabilities, such as those at Shin-Etsu Corp.'s magnet factory [5][13] Global Production Trends - China's actions have inadvertently spurred a global increase in rare-earth production facilities across multiple continents, including the US, Europe, and Australia, which may dilute China's dominance in this sector [9][10] - New facilities, like those established by Canada's Neo Performance Materials in Estonia and Belgium's Solvay SA in France, are beginning to produce rare-earth magnets and elements, indicating a shift in the global supply landscape [11][12] Geopolitical Implications - The complexity and often unprofitability of rare-earth facilities suggest that while they are easier to establish than advanced semiconductor supply chains, they may not serve as effective geopolitical leverage for China in the long term [10][12] - Analysts note that China's overt control of critical minerals has prompted rival nations to develop their own production capabilities, potentially weakening China's strategic position [12][13]

Core Insights - The article discusses the latest trends and developments in the investment banking sector, highlighting key financial metrics and market movements. Group 1: Financial Performance - Investment banks have reported a significant increase in revenue, with an average growth of 15% year-over-year, driven by strong trading volumes and advisory fees [1]. - The total assets under management (AUM) in the sector have reached $5 trillion, reflecting a 10% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - There is a growing trend towards digital transformation within investment banks, with 70% of firms investing in technology to enhance operational efficiency [1]. - The demand for sustainable investment products is rising, with a reported 25% increase in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) fund inflows [1]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes are impacting the investment banking landscape, with new compliance requirements expected to increase operational costs by approximately 5% [1]. - The article notes that firms are adapting to these changes by enhancing their risk management frameworks [1].

Core Insights - USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) is progressing towards commercial production at its Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, which will produce Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets essential for various high-growth markets [1][8] Group 1: Operational Progress - In 2025, USAR focused on equipment installation, assembling Line 1a, and preparing for commissioning in early 2026, while also hiring and training engineers and technicians to support operations [2] - The company is expected to achieve commercial-scale production and secure long-term customer contracts as a result of these operational enhancements [2] Group 2: Financial Position - USAR significantly improved its balance sheet through PIPE financing and warrant exercises, raising its cash position to over $400 million as of November 2025 [3] - The capital is being allocated for plant upgrades, expanding magnet finishing capabilities, and completing Line 1b, which will increase total NdFeB magnet production capacity to approximately 1,200 metric tons [3] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - In November 2025, USAR acquired Less Common Metals, enhancing its vertical integration and providing a reliable source of critical metals and alloys for the Stillwater facility [4] - This acquisition positions the company to scale production and expand capacity in the upcoming quarters [4] Group 4: Peer Comparison - Among peers, Trilogy Metals Inc. is progressing at the Ambler mining district, while NioCorp Developments Ltd. is advancing its Elk Creek Project, indicating a competitive landscape in the rare earth sector [5][6] Group 5: Market Performance - USAR shares have increased by 18.2% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 38.1% [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of negative 38.42X, significantly higher than the industry's average of 16.42X, indicating potential valuation concerns [10]

Core Viewpoint - Shares in USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) increased by up to 11% amid speculation that a regime change in Venezuela could lead to improved trading relationships with U.S. companies, potentially benefiting USA Rare Earth [1] Group 1: Potential Benefits - The Orinoco Mining Arc in Venezuela is reported to contain 300,000 metric tonnes of rare-earth deposits, including lanthanum, thorium, and neodymium, which USA Rare Earth could utilize for its Stillwater, Oklahoma facility, set to produce rare-earth magnets this year [2] - The company's business model involves producing rare-earth magnets at Stillwater by 2026 and commencing commercial development of the Round Top mining deposit in Texas by late 2028, necessitating a non-China source of rare-earth materials, which could be supplied by Venezuela [3] Group 2: Strategic Importance - Securing a domestic supply of rare-earth magnets is a critical strategic interest for the U.S., making the speculation regarding Venezuela's resources understandable, although it is premature to incorporate these potential supplies into USA Rare Earth's business plans [4] - The acquisition of Less Common Materials in late 2025 may reduce the company's reliance on Venezuelan resources, thereby derisking its plans [5]

Core Insights - MP Materials is a key player in the rare earth magnet industry, providing essential components for electronic devices [2][8] - The company operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, one of the few scalable rare earth mines in the U.S., and is expanding its vertical integration with new manufacturing facilities [3][4] - Recent partnerships with the Department of Defense and Apple have significantly boosted MP Materials' valuation and stock performance [4][5] Company Overview - MP Materials specializes in the production of high-performance magnets using elements like neodymium, iron, and boron [2][8] - The company has established a magnet factory in Fort Worth, Texas, and is developing the 10X Facility to enhance its manufacturing capabilities [3] Financial Highlights - The Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials, establishing a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr and guaranteeing buyers for the next 10 years [4] - MP Materials has a multiyear $500 million deal with Apple to supply 100% recycled rare earth magnets, with Apple prepaying $200 million [5] - Over the past 12 months, MP's stock has increased by over 230%, significantly outperforming other major stocks [5] Market Position and Risks - Despite strong stock performance, execution risks remain as the company needs to build out its manufacturing arm, which may impact profitability [6] - Current valuation is considered high, and investments in MP Materials should be approached with caution, particularly for aggressive investors [6][7]

Group 1 - Stone Fox Capital is an RIA based in Oklahoma, led by Mark Holder, a CPA with 30 years of investing experience, including 15 years as a portfolio manager [2] - The investing group, Out Fox The Street, provides stock picks and deep research aimed at uncovering potential multibaggers while managing portfolio risk through diversification [2] - Features of Out Fox The Street include model portfolios, stock picks with identifiable catalysts, daily updates, real-time alerts, and community chat access [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of positioning in undervalued stocks mispriced by the market as a strategy for 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in U.S. rare earth stocks on Friday, indicating positive market sentiment towards this sector [1] Group 2 - Critical Metals (CRML.US) experienced an increase of over 13% [1] - Energy Fuels (UUUU.US) saw a rise of more than 8% [1] - USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) rose by over 7.6% [1] - MP Materials (MP.US) increased by more than 5% [1]