Flash | 08 May 2025 04:19:11 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #64 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on a demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 1st to 7th May 2025. Our revised near ...

Group 1 - Peabody is strategically shifting its portfolio towards higher-margin metallurgical coal production [1] - The company is in the process of acquiring coal mines from Anglo American in Australia [1] - Despite these strategic moves, the energy sector is facing market challenges, with companies being punished [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.7 million, down from $53 million in Q4 2024 [11] - Tons shipped in Q1 2025 were 3.8 million, a decrease from 4.1 million tons in Q4 2024 [11] - Average realization for metallurgical coal sales in Q1 was $122.08 per ton, down from $132.63 per ton in Q4 [12] - Cost of coal sales for the metallurgical segment increased to $110.34 per ton in Q1, up from $108.82 per ton in Q4 [12] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $485.8 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of Q4 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal segment realizations decreased quarter over quarter, with export met tons priced against Atlantic indices realizing $119.39 per ton in Q1, down from $122.24 in Q4 [11][12] - Incidental thermal portion of the metallurgical segment saw an increase in realization to $79.39 per ton in Q1 from $75.39 in Q4 [12] - CapEx for Q1 was $38.5 million, down from $42.7 million in Q4 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets remained under pressure with pricing levels deteriorating due to weak steel demand [22] - All four indices monitored by the company fell 8% or more during Q1, with the Australian Premium Low Vol Index dropping 15.5% [22] - As of May 8, 2025, the Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per metric ton from its quarter-end level [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on liquidity and safeguarding its financial position amid challenging market conditions [6][9] - Adjustments to sales volume guidance were announced, with expected shipments for the year now at 15.3 million tons, down from 16.7 million tons [8] - The Kingston Wildcat project is expected to continue on schedule despite the downward revision to planned development CapEx [9][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the rest of the year due to weak steel demand and increased uncertainty from tariffs and trade policies [6][8] - The company has taken difficult actions, including cutting production at higher-cost operations and reducing wages across the enterprise [7][19] - Management remains optimistic about the Kingston Wildcat project, which is expected to ramp up to a full run rate of approximately 1 million tons per year by 2026 [20] Other Important Information - The company has secured an amendment to its asset-based lending facility, increasing its size from $155 million to $225 million [10] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1 under its share buyback program due to market conditions [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent cost-cutting measures and cost guidance - Management confirmed that recent cost-cutting measures have helped offset the loss of fixed cost absorption, maintaining guidance relatively firm despite production cuts [34][35] Question: CapEx reductions and growth projects - Most capital reductions are related to closures and reallocating assets, with no significant impact on future business [38][39] Question: Realization side and market conditions - In a weak market, discounting against indices is common, but not universal; some recent business concluded at a premium to the index [48] Question: Shipment guidance and domestic vs export - The reduction in shipment guidance primarily affects export tons, with confidence in maintaining overall guidance despite operational changes [46][47] Question: Opportunities in the marketplace - Management is cautious about pursuing M&A opportunities, focusing on internal projects like Kingston Wildcat for strengthening the portfolio [50][51] Question: Domestic market considerations - The domestic market is currently among the higher pricing, but management will evaluate customer needs over the summer [56][57] Question: Potential for small competitors exiting the market - There is still potential for small competitors to exit the market, with liquidity concerns affecting less well-capitalized companies [60][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.7 million, down from $53 million in Q4 2024 [10] - Tons shipped in Q1 2025 were 3.8 million, a decrease from 4.1 million tons in Q4 2024 [10] - Average realization for metallurgical coal sales in Q1 was $122.08 per ton, down from $132.63 per ton in Q4 [11] - Cost of coal sales for the metallurgical segment increased to $110.34 per ton in Q1, up from $108.82 per ton in Q4 [11] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $485.8 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of 2024 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal segment realizations decreased to an average of $118.61 per ton in Q1, down from $127.84 in Q4 [10] - Incidental thermal portion of the metallurgical segment saw an increase in realization to $79.39 per ton in Q1, compared to $75.39 in Q4 [11] - CapEx for Q1 was $38.5 million, down from $42.7 million in Q4 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets remained under pressure with pricing levels deteriorating due to weak steel demand [20] - All four indices monitored by the company fell by 8% or more during Q1, with the Australian Premium Low Vol Index dropping 15.5% [20] - As of May 8, 2025, the Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per metric ton, indicating slight recovery [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on liquidity and safeguarding its financial position amid challenging market conditions [5] - Adjustments to sales volume guidance were made, with expected shipments now at 15.3 million tons, down from 16.7 million tons [7] - The Kingston Wildcat project is expected to continue on schedule despite the downward revision in CapEx [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year due to weak steel demand and economic uncertainty [5] - The company has taken difficult actions, including cutting production at higher-cost operations and reducing wages [6] - Management remains optimistic about the Kingston Wildcat project, which is expected to ramp up to a full run rate of approximately 1 million tons per year by 2026 [19] Other Important Information - The company has secured an amendment to its asset-based lending facility, increasing its size from $155 million to $225 million [9] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1 under its buyback program due to continued softness in the metallurgical coal markets [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on cost cadence and recent cost-cutting measures - Management noted that significant production cuts have been made while maintaining cost guidance, indicating a good accomplishment [31] Question: CapEx reductions and growth-related impacts - Most capital reductions are related to closures, with some growth CapEx being managed in-house to reduce costs [35] Question: Realization pressures and market conditions - Management acknowledged that in a weak market, discounting against indices is common, but not universal [45] Question: Shipment guidance and domestic versus export expectations - The reduction in shipment guidance primarily affects export tons, with confidence in maintaining domestic shipments [43] Question: Opportunities for acquisitions in the current market - Management is cautious about pursuing M&A opportunities, focusing instead on internal projects like Kingston Wildcat [48]

Core Natural Resources Investor Presentation May 8, 2025 1 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as "anticipates," "believes," "targets," "could," "continue," "estimate," "expects," "intends," "will," "should," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "would" and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical fact and ref ...

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Peabody Energy (BTU) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 06, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Vic Svec - SVP, Global Investor and Corporate RelationsJames Grech - President & CEOMalcolm Roberts - Chief Marketing OfficerMark Spurbeck - EVP & CFO Conference Call Participants Nick Giles - Senior Research AnalystChris LaFemina - AnalystKatja Jancic - AnalystNathan Martin - Equity Research Analyst Operator Good day, and welcome to Peabody Q1 twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in lis ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $34 million or $0.27 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $144 million [27] - The company generated $30 million in free cash flow, net of $47 million of continued development at Centurion [27] - As of March 31, the company held nearly $700 million in cash and had over $1 billion in liquidity, maintaining a cash positive net debt position [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The seaborne thermal segment achieved $84 million in adjusted EBITDA with 32% margins, exceeding production forecasts by exporting an additional 400,000 tons [28] - The seaborne metallurgical segment reported $13 million in adjusted EBITDA, with sales modestly below company targets due to lagging market conditions [29] - The US thermal mines generated $69 million in adjusted EBITDA, with the PRB mines exceeding expectations by shipping 19.6 million tons [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US generator inventories have declined by more than 25% on a days burn basis since the beginning of the year, indicating strong demand for coal [20] - Coal generation in the US is projected to increase by 5% for the full year, while US coal production is expected to decline by 6% [21] - Thermal coal prices reached four-year lows in March, but demand remains intact with 600 GW of coal generation under construction or in various stages of development, primarily in Asia [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on cost control and managing its diversified global portfolio to navigate cyclical market softness [5] - The Centurion mine is on budget and ahead of schedule, projected to have a low cost structure and high margins in the steelmaking coal universe [6] - The company supports the US administration's efforts to revitalize the coal industry and expand coal-fired generation, aligning with rising electricity demand [7][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that coal fuel generation in the US is up 20% over the prior year, indicating a shift in market share from higher-priced natural gas [10] - The company anticipates increasing demand throughout 2025, with a strong start to the year and expectations for a stronger second half [34] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term demand for coal, citing substantial US coal demand for many years into the future [13] Other Important Information - The company notified Anglo American of a material adverse change (MAC) related to the Moranbah North mine, which remains inactive following a gas ignition event [16] - The acquisition of premium steelmaking coal mines in Australia is under scrutiny due to uncertainties surrounding the Moranbah North mine [17] - The company is exploring a potential partial sale of the Centurion line, independent of the Anglo acquisition process [63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the process following the MAC notification regarding Moranbah North? - Management indicated a ten-day period for Anglo to respond, followed by a potential ninety-day cure period to resolve the MAC [40] Question: What constitutes a sustainable resolution for the MAC? - Management stated that a sustainable longwall production must be established for the agreement to proceed, but specifics were not disclosed [45] Question: How does the MAC impact financing processes? - Financing discussions are currently on hold due to uncertainties surrounding the Moranbah North mine [48] Question: What differentiates the current event at Moranbah North from past incidents? - Management emphasized the significant potential impacts of the current situation, which they believe constitutes a MAC [53] Question: How will the executive orders supporting US coal production impact the business? - Management noted that the orders aim to prevent further coal plant closures and encourage long-term contracts, which could benefit the company [87]

Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 06, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Tiffany Sammis - Investor RelationsCraig Nunez - President & COOChristopher Zolas - CFO Conference Call Participants None - Analyst Operator and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners LP First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to ha ...

Company Performance - Peabody Energy reported quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.07 per share, but down from $0.30 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 285.71% [1] - The company posted revenues of $937 million for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.13%, compared to year-ago revenues of $983.6 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Peabody Energy has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Peabody Energy shares have declined approximately 35.4% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 3.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.01 on revenues of $932.6 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.27 on revenues of $4.77 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The coal industry, to which Peabody Energy belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 9% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a challenging environment [8] - The performance of Peabody Energy's stock may be influenced by the overall outlook for the coal industry, as research shows that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]