Pernod Ricard reported worse-than-expected sales as a sharp slump in demand in China and clearing out of excess stock in the US hurt the French spirits maker https://t.co/edmQoBcAcT ...

Core Viewpoint - TD Cowan analyst Robert Moskow expresses a favorable opinion on Celsius' recent acquisition, while he is critical of Keurig Dr Pepper's coffee deal [1] Group 1: Celsius - Celsius' latest purchase is viewed positively by analysts, indicating potential growth and strategic alignment within the beverage industry [1] Group 2: Keurig Dr Pepper - Keurig Dr Pepper's coffee deal is met with skepticism, suggesting concerns about its long-term viability and impact on the company's portfolio [1]

India’s cola wars are bubbling over with the revival of homegrown brand Campa Cola by Reliance Consumer Products. Campa sells 200ml bottles for 10 rupees (12 cents), about half the retail price of 250ml bottles from the American giants.Read more: https://t.co/10ZnKyNMyS https://t.co/02YZStT3Vd ...

Summary of China Consumer Staples 3Q25 Preview Industry Overview - The Consumer Staples sector in China is experiencing weak consumption trends in 3Q25, with easing policy headwinds but ongoing constraints on on-trade recovery [1][2] - Companies are prioritizing channel health and maintaining rational marketing investments due to weak demand, leading to volume weakness across sub-sectors [1][2] Key Insights - **Sales Growth Expectations**: An aggregated topline growth of +3%/+4% is anticipated for the Staples coverage (excluding Spirits), with beverages, pet foods, and snacks leading sales growth at 10-30% [2] - **Comparison to Previous Quarters**: This growth represents a deceleration from +5%/+7% in 2Q25, reflecting broader consumption weakness [2] - **Spirits Sector Outlook**: The spirits sector is expected to see a decline of -7%/-10% in sales/net profit, likely marking 3Q as the trough level due to stringent shipment controls [2] Company Performance - **Leaders Outperforming**: Companies like Eastroc, Nongfu, Haitian, CR Beer, Yankershop, and Weilong are expected to deliver resilient sales growth in 2H25 with higher margin visibility [2] - **Downgrade of Jonjee**: Jonjee has been downgraded to Sell from Neutral due to an 8-10% downward revision in earnings amid competitive pressure from Haitian [2] Market Trends - **September Sales Trends**: Beer and dairy sales trends improved sequentially ahead of Golden Week, while beverage and snacks showed wide divergence [2] - **Focus on Channel Health**: Companies are expected to focus on channel health and shipment control in preparation for a fresh start in 2026 [2] Future Outlook - **Investment Strategy for 2026**: Companies are expected to face diminishing cost benefits, necessitating a focus on competition and promotion strategies [8] - **Growth Drivers**: Selective snacks and beverage players are anticipated to drive topline growth through core SKU focus and POS expansion [8] - **Potential Recovery in Challenged Sectors**: Spirits valuations suggest a potential bottoming out, with recovery tied to gradual policy normalization expected in 2Q26 [8] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - **Valuation Outlook**: Investors are beginning to look into 2026/27E earnings, with pet food trading at an average of 28x/21x P/E compared to 38x for 2025 [8] - **Shareholder Return Support**: Companies like Tingyi and WH Group are noted for their attractive yields of 7-8% for 2025E/2026E [1] Conclusion - The Consumer Staples sector in China is navigating a challenging environment with weak demand and competitive pressures, but certain leaders are positioned to outperform. The focus on channel health and strategic investments will be crucial as the sector prepares for 2026.

Market Competition - India's cola market sees increased competition with the revival of homegrown brand Campa Cola by Reliance Consumer Products [1] - Campa Cola's pricing strategy involves selling 200ml bottles for 10 rupees (approximately 12 US cents), which is about half the retail price of 250ml bottles from major American cola companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Activist investors are influencing Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) to reconsider its strategies and operations following a stake acquisition by Starboard Value, amidst recent controversial decisions that have unsettled investors [1][2]. Company Overview - Keurig Dr Pepper was formed in 2018 from the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, and it encompasses over 125 brands across various beverage categories, including soft drinks and coffee [3]. - The company includes well-known brands such as Dr Pepper, 7UP, Snapple, Mott's, Canada Dry, and coffee brands like Keurig and Green Mountain [3]. Recent Developments - KDP's announcement of an $18.4 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's and plans to split into two publicly traded companies led to an 11.5% drop in its share price [4]. - The proposed split will create two entities: Global Coffee Co., which will combine KDP's and JDE's coffee businesses, and Beverage Co., which will focus on soft drink brands [5]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the 33% premium KDP is paying for JDE Peet's, which may strain its balance sheet and create financial pressures in the near term [5]. Investor Sentiment - Following the split announcement and acquisition news, investor confidence has been shaken, prompting Starboard Value to engage with KDP's management to improve execution and restore trust [2].

Core Viewpoint - Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. will announce its operating results for Q3 and the first nine months of fiscal 2025 on October 29, 2025, after market close [1]. Company Overview - Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. is the largest Coca-Cola bottler in the United States, headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. [2] - The company distributes beverages from The Coca-Cola Company and other partners, offering over 300 brands and flavors across 14 states and the District of Columbia, serving approximately 60 million consumers [2]. - With a history of over 123 years, the company is committed to its consumers, customers, and communities, focusing on a broad portfolio of beverages and services [2].

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) is experiencing strong momentum, with stock trading near a 52-week high, reflecting investor confidence in its growth narrative [1][2] - The company has positioned itself as a dynamic player in the energy drink market through a "better-for-you" approach, global expansion, and consistent product innovation [1] Stock Performance - CELH stock closed at $61.86, close to its 52-week high of $64.81 reached on October 10, 2025 [2] - Over the past year, CELH shares have surged 83.1%, significantly outperforming the industry decline of 17.9% and the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector's drop of 8.3% [3][8] - The company has outperformed peers such as Monster Beverage (28.1% increase), Coca-Cola (4.4% decrease), and PepsiCo (13.1% decrease) [5] Revenue Growth - In Q2 2025, Celsius generated revenues of $739.3 million, an 84% year-over-year increase, driven by the acquisition of Alani Nu and a 9% rise in the core Celsius brand [6][8] - The modern energy segment is growing rapidly, appealing to younger consumers seeking functional, zero-sugar alternatives, with household penetration rates of 34% for Celsius and 22% for Alani Nu [7] Product Innovation - Product innovation is central to Celsius' growth strategy, with limited-time flavors from Alani Nu and new fizz-free options from Celsius enhancing the product lineup [9] - Upcoming seasonal and limited-edition launches are expected to maintain brand relevance and consumer engagement [9] Geographic Expansion - North America remains the primary growth driver, but international sales increased by 27% in Q2 to $24.8 million, particularly strong in the U.K., France, and Australia [10] - The foodservice channel also showed growth, with a 9.8% volume increase, contributing approximately 12% of Celsius' North American sales through its partnership with PepsiCo [10] Valuation and Market Position - Celsius trades at a premium valuation with a forward 12-month P/E of 45.24X, significantly above the industry average of 15.07X, indicating strong growth expectations but limited room for multiple expansion [13] - Compared to other beverage leaders, Celsius' valuation is notably higher, with PepsiCo, Monster Beverage, and Coca-Cola trading at 17.95X, 32.79X, and 21.35X respectively [13] Long-term Outlook - The company is fundamentally strong and aligned with consumer trends, with disciplined execution and strong brand equity positioning it for long-term growth [17] - However, with the stock near record highs and stretched valuations, future upside may depend on continued earnings outperformance and margin resilience amid cost pressures [17]

Core Points - Arca Continental is leading a binational initiative to clean the Rio Grande River, collaborating with Laredo, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico [1][4] - The project has successfully removed over 5,000 pounds of waste from the river, benefiting more than 675,000 residents in both cities [2][3] - The litter boom technology used in this initiative captures debris and improves water quality, supporting local ecosystems [3][4] Company Overview - Arca Continental is one of the largest Coca-Cola bottlers globally, with a history of over 99 years and operations across multiple countries [5] - The company serves a population of over 128 million in regions including northern and western Mexico, Ecuador, Peru, northern Argentina, and the southwestern United States [5] - Arca Continental is publicly traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange under the symbol "AC" [5]

Core Insights - Tilray Brands reported a return to profitability in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with net income of $1.5 million compared to a loss of $34.7 million in the same quarter last year [2][11] - Total revenues increased by 5% year over year to $209.5 million, driven by strong performance in both cannabis and non-cannabis segments [2][11] Financial Performance - The cannabis segment generated revenues of $64.5 million, also reflecting a 5% year-over-year growth, supported by double-digit increases in Canadian adult-use and international medical cannabis sales [7][11] - Non-cannabis segments now account for over two-thirds of total revenues, with beverages and distribution being the primary contributors [4][11] Business Diversification - Tilray has diversified its business beyond cannabis, with significant contributions from beverages and distribution, which grew 9% year over year to $74 million [4][6] - The beverage segment maintained steady sales at $60 million despite restructuring efforts, indicating stability in this area [5] Market Position and Competition - Tilray is the largest legal cannabis producer in Canada by revenues, with adult-use revenues climbing 12% [8][11] - The company faces stiff competition from other cannabis players like Aurora Cannabis, Canopy Growth, and Curaleaf, all of which are pursuing aggressive international expansion [12][13] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its Project 420 initiative in the second half of fiscal 2026, focusing on enhancing its global supply chain and cultivation footprint [6] - Renewed optimism surrounding U.S. cannabis reform could provide additional growth opportunities, particularly in international markets [9][17]