PepsiCo (NasdaqGS:PEP) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 03, 2026 08:15 AM ET Company ParticipantsDara Mohsenian - Managing DirectorFilippo Falorni - Director in Equity ResearchRamon Laguarta - CEORavi Pamnani - Head of Investor RelationsSteve Schmitt - CFOConference Call ParticipantsAndrea Teixeira - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystBonnie Herzog - Managing Director and Senior Consumer AnalystKevin Grundy - Senior AnalystLauren Lieberman - Managing Director and senior U.S. Equity Research A ...

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) is leveraging brand synergies by integrating Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy to enhance long-term scalability and operational efficiency [1][7] - The company is focusing on coordinated distribution, marketing, and retail execution to improve brand performance and visibility within the PepsiCo distribution system [2][7] Brand Integration and Operations - Management highlighted the importance of sharing insights and operational strategies across brands, utilizing successful elements from Celsius and Alani Nu to inform decisions for Rockstar Energy [3][4] - The integration of sourcing, logistics, and planning systems is expected to streamline operations while allowing each brand to retain its unique market appeal [4][5] Market Performance and Valuation - Celsius Holdings has experienced a significant share price increase of 76.4% over the past year, contrasting with a 14.8% decline in the industry [6] - The company's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.77, which is higher than the industry average of 14.53, indicating a premium valuation compared to PepsiCo and a discount relative to Monster Beverage [10]

Core Insights - Deep-pocketed investors are adopting a bearish approach towards Celsius Holdings, indicating potential significant market movements ahead [1] - The sentiment among heavyweight investors is mixed, with 62% bearish and 25% bullish, highlighting a notable options activity [2] - Major market movers are focusing on a price range between $36.0 and $60.0 for Celsius Holdings over the last three months [3] Options Activity - In the last 30 days, there has been extraordinary options activity for Celsius Holdings, with a total of $266,512 in puts and $232,393 in calls [2] - The biggest options trades include a bullish put sweep with a total trade price of $149.3K at a strike price of $44.00 and a bearish put sweep at a strike price of $37.50 totaling $65.8K [8] Company Overview - Celsius Holdings operates in the energy drink segment of the global nonalcoholic beverage market, with 95% of its revenue generated in North America [9] - The company owns three energy drink brands: Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy, focusing on product innovation and marketing while outsourcing manufacturing and distribution [9] Market Position - Analysts have issued ratings for Celsius Holdings, with a consensus target price of $61.6, reflecting a generally positive outlook despite mixed investor sentiment [11] - Specific analyst ratings include a Buy from Citigroup with a target of $65, an Overweight from JP Morgan at $68, and a Buy from Stifel at $60, while B of A Securities maintains an Underperform rating with a target of $50 [12]

Global Energy Drink Market Overview - GlobalData forecasts an 8.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global off-trade retail sales of energy drinks through 2030[8] - The U S non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverage market achieved $122 billion in retail sales over the most recent 52-week period[18] - The U S market for non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages sold 36 3 billion units at retail over the most recent 52-week period[22] Monster Energy Company (MEC) Distribution and Market Share - Monster is now distributed in 138 countries and territories[7] - Strategic Brands are now distributed in 57 countries and territories[7] - Reign is now distributed in 27 countries and territories[7] - Affordable Energy (Predator & Fury) is now distributed in 36 countries and territories[7] - One or more of the company's energy drinks are distributed in a total of 158 countries and territories worldwide[7] - MEC holds a 34 7% value share in the United States and a 36 3% value share in Canada[17] EMEA & OSP Region Performance - The energy category in EMEA & OSP shows value sales of €15 3 billion, with a €1 9 billion increase versus the prior year, representing a 14 4% growth[55] - MEC's value sales in EMEA & OSP are €3 8 billion, with a €695 million increase versus the prior year, representing a 22 7% growth[55] - Monster brand value sales in EMEA & OSP are €2 9 billion, with a €537 million increase versus the prior year, representing a 22 4% growth[55] Latin America Beverage Market - The Latin American market for non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages is forecasted to generate approximately $144 billion in retail sales in 2025[123] - Energy drinks in Latin America have a $ CAGR (2020-2025) of 21 6%[128] - Monster maintains $ share leadership in Brazil with 43 8%[140]

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) announced a $300 million share repurchase authorization, indicating strong confidence in its financial position and long-term fundamentals [1][4] - The company reported a 173% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven by acquisitions and growth in the Celsius brand [2][9] - CELH ended the quarter with nearly $806 million in cash, supported by strong operating cash flow and a healthy liquidity position [2][9] - Gross margin expanded by 530 basis points to 51.3%, enhancing internal funding capacity [2][9] - CELH reduced its debt by $200 million, lowering total debt to approximately $700 million and cutting its term loan rate, which is expected to reduce annual interest expenses by about $20 million starting in 2026 [3][4] Financial Performance - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be uneven due to the transition of Alani Nu into PepsiCo's DSD network, but CELH's underlying performance remains strong [4] - PepsiCo plans to return nearly $8.6 billion to shareholders in 2025 through share buybacks and dividends, reflecting a healthy liquidity position [5] - Monster Beverage reported a 16.8% increase in net sales to $2.20 billion and a 41.4% growth in net income to $524.5 million, indicating a strong financial status [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - CELH shares have increased by 56.4% year-to-date, contrasting with a 14.7% decline in the industry [7][9] - CELH trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27.68, significantly higher than the industry average of 14.5 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CELH's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 80% for 2025 and 20.7% for 2026 [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, consolidated revenue was approximately $725 million, up 173% year-over-year [17] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.3%, compared to 46% a year ago, reflecting improvements in inventory optimization and lower promotional spend [19] - Year-to-date consolidated sales increased by roughly 75%, or $770 million, with Alani Nu accounting for the majority of that growth [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Celsius brand's U.S. scanner growth rate was 13%, while revenue growth was reported at 44%, indicating a discrepancy due to inventory movements and promotional activities [17][18] - Alani Nu revenue nearly doubled, up 99%, driven by strong limited-time offerings like Witches Brew [18] - Rockstar Energy contributed approximately $11 million in revenue in its first month under Celsius ownership, with an additional $7 million recorded in other income [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The combined portfolio of Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar represented over 20% share of the U.S. energy drink market, growing 31% year-over-year, nearly twice as fast as the overall category [8] - Celsius Holdings' portfolio generated more than $5 billion in retail sales in U.S. track channels over the last 52 weeks [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its partnership with PepsiCo, enhancing its role as a strategic energy drink captain within PepsiCo's portfolio [5][6] - The acquisition of Rockstar Energy is expected to broaden the consumer base and strengthen the company's market position [7] - The company aims to optimize its product assortment and stabilize Rockstar Energy while continuing to grow Celsius and Alani Nu [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth trajectory, citing strong consumer demand for functional energy products and successful marketing campaigns [10][11] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 will be a noisy quarter due to integration activities and promotional timing, with potential pressure on gross margins [22] - Management highlighted the importance of strategic investments in international markets, particularly in Australia and Europe, as part of their growth strategy [77] Other Important Information - The company recorded approximately $247 million in distributor termination expenses during the quarter, fully funded by PepsiCo under a long-term agreement [20] - The leadership team has been strengthened with new appointments, including a Chief Marketing Officer and a President of Celsius International [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discrepancy in core Celsius growth rates - Management acknowledged the variance between reported revenue growth and scanner growth, attributing it to various factors including inventory movements and promotional activities [26][28] Question: Pricing strategy amidst inflation - Management is evaluating pricing strategies, including promotional tactics and building a revenue management team to enhance pricing capabilities [37] Question: Integration and inventory management for Q4 - Management indicated that Q4 will involve phased integration into the Pepsi system, which may lead to inventory fluctuations and potential margin pressure [40][46] Question: Alani Nu's growth and distribution ramp-up - Management expressed optimism about Alani Nu's potential to reach Celsius-level distribution, emphasizing improved collaboration with PepsiCo to avoid past inventory optimization issues [81][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, consolidated revenue was approximately $725 million, up 173% year-over-year [17] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.3%, compared to 46% a year ago, reflecting improvements in inventory optimization and lower promotional spend [19] - Year-to-date consolidated sales increased by roughly 75%, with Alani Nu accounting for the majority of that growth [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Celsius brand's U.S. scanner growth rate was 13%, while revenue growth was reported at 44% [17][18] - Alani Nu revenue nearly doubled, up 99%, driven by strong limited-time offerings [18] - Rockstar Energy contributed approximately $11 million in revenue in its first month under Celsius ownership, with a total impact of about $18 million in Q3 [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The combined portfolio represented over 20% share of the U.S. energy drink market, growing 31% year-over-year, nearly twice as fast as the overall category [8] - Celsius Holdings' portfolio gained more than two share points year-over-year in Walmart alone [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its partnership with PepsiCo, enhancing its role as the strategic energy drink captain within Pepsi's portfolio [5][6] - Plans to optimize the Rockstar Energy brand and stabilize its market presence while continuing to grow Celsius and Alani Nu [22] - The company aims to build a portfolio that reaches more consumers during more occasions, emphasizing collaboration and organizational excellence [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory for 2026, despite anticipated challenges in Q4 due to integration activities and promotional timing [22] - The company is optimistic about the international expansion, particularly in markets like Australia and the U.K., where performance has exceeded expectations [14][77] Other Important Information - The company recorded approximately $247 million in distributor termination expenses during the quarter, fully funded by PepsiCo [20] - Management highlighted the importance of seasonal flavor offerings and marketing campaigns in driving consumer engagement and sales [10][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on core Celsius growth and scanner data - Management acknowledged the variance between reported revenue growth and scanner growth, attributing it to various factors including inventory movements and promotional activities [25][28] Question: Pricing strategy amidst market changes - Management discussed the ongoing evaluation of pricing strategies in response to cost pressures and tariff impacts, emphasizing the need for a revenue management team [36][37] Question: Details on Q4 integration and inventory management - Management indicated that Q4 would be a noisy quarter due to integration activities and inventory transitions, with a phased approach to Alani's rollout in the Pepsi system [40][46] Question: Comments on gross margins and inflation impacts - Management provided insights on the expected pressure on gross margins due to tariffs and inflation, while also highlighting opportunities for efficiency improvements through integration [68][72] Question: International expansion plans - Management outlined the strategic investments in international markets, emphasizing the growth potential in Australia and Europe [77] Question: Alani Nu's distribution ramp-up and collaboration with PepsiCo - Management expressed confidence in Alani Nu's growth potential and the improved collaboration with PepsiCo to avoid past inventory optimization issues [81][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, consolidated revenue was approximately $725 million, up 173% year-over-year [15] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.3%, compared to 46% a year ago, reflecting improvements in inventory optimization and lower promotional spend [17][18] - Year-to-date consolidated sales increased by roughly 75%, with Alani Nu accounting for the majority of that growth [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Celsius brand's U.S. scanner growth rate was 13%, while revenue growth was reported at 44%, indicating a discrepancy due to inventory movements and promotional activities [15][16] - Alani Nu revenue nearly doubled, up 99%, driven by strong limited-time offerings like Witches Brew [16][18] - Rockstar Energy contributed approximately $11 million in revenue in its first month under Celsius ownership, with an additional $7 million recorded in other income [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Celsius Holdings' combined portfolio represented over 20% share of the U.S. energy drink market, growing 31% year-over-year, nearly twice as fast as the overall category [7] - The Celsius brand achieved double-digit retail sales growth of 13% year-over-year, while Alani Nu grew at 115% year-over-year [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its partnership with PepsiCo, enhancing its role as the U.S. strategic energy drink captain [5][6] - The acquisition of Rockstar Energy is expected to broaden the consumer base and strengthen the overall energy portfolio [6][7] - The company aims to optimize its operations and distribution networks, particularly with the integration of Alani Nu into PepsiCo's system [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued growth for both Celsius and Alani Nu, while focusing on stabilizing Rockstar Energy [21] - The upcoming quarter is expected to be noisy due to integration activities and promotional timing, with potential pressure on gross margins [21][60] - The company anticipates capturing synergies from acquisitions and further strengthening its balance sheet through disciplined capital allocation [19][22] Other Important Information - The company is investing in brand growth and marketing campaigns, such as the Celsius Live Fit Go campaign, to drive consumer engagement [18][19] - Management highlighted the importance of seasonal flavor offerings and limited-time promotions in driving sales [9][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about core Celsius growth and scanner data discrepancies - Management acknowledged the complexities in comparing growth rates and attributed the differences to various factors, including inventory movements and promotional timing [24][26] Question: Pricing strategies in light of market trends - Management is evaluating pricing strategies, considering tariff impacts and commodity costs, while building a revenue management team for better precision [31][32] Question: Details on Q4 integration and inventory management - Management indicated that Q4 would involve a phased approach to integration, with potential noise in inventory levels and sales [34][39] Question: Gross margin outlook and tariff impacts - Management discussed the expected pressure on gross margins due to tariffs and integration costs, while also highlighting opportunities for efficiency improvements [55][58] Question: International expansion plans - Management emphasized the growth potential in international markets, particularly in Australia and Europe, and the importance of strategic investments [63][64]

Core Insights - Investors are showing a bullish sentiment towards Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH), with significant options trading activity indicating potential upcoming developments [1][2] - The overall sentiment among large traders is predominantly bullish, with 80% of trades being calls and only 10% being puts [2] - Major market movers are focusing on a price range between $57.5 and $70.0 for Celsius Holdings over the past three months [3] Options Activity - A total of 10 uncommon options trades were identified, with 8 calls amounting to $376,968 and 2 puts totaling $187,650 [2] - The mean open interest for Celsius Holdings options trades today is 1,421.25, with a total volume of 1,930.00 [4] Company Overview - Celsius Holdings operates in the energy drink segment of the global nonalcoholic beverage market, with 95% of its revenue generated in North America [11] - The company owns three energy drink brands: Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy, focusing on product innovation and marketing while outsourcing manufacturing and distribution [11] Market Analysis - Analysts have set an average price target of $68.33 for Celsius Holdings, with individual targets ranging from $55 to $76 [13][14] - Current trading volume stands at 1,224,176, with the stock price at $58.13, reflecting a decrease of 1.89% [16]

Core Insights - Investors are showing a bullish stance on Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH), with significant options trading activity indicating potential upcoming developments [1][2] - The overall sentiment among large traders is 54% bullish and 36% bearish, with a notable disparity in the volume of call and put options [2] - The projected price targets for Celsius Holdings range from $40.0 to $70.0, based on recent options activity [3] Options Activity - A total of 11 uncommon options trades were identified, with 9 call options amounting to $674,905 and 2 put options totaling $140,047 [2][10] - The analysis of volume and open interest reveals key insights into liquidity and interest levels for Celsius Holdings' options, particularly within the $40.0 to $70.0 strike price range [4] Company Overview - Celsius Holdings operates in the energy drink segment of the global nonalcoholic beverage market, with 95% of its revenue generated in North America [11] - The company owns three energy drink brands: Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy, focusing on product innovation and marketing while outsourcing manufacturing and distribution [11] - Following investments from PepsiCo in 2022 and 2025, Celsius issued convertible preferred shares, granting PepsiCo an 11% stake in the company [11] Market Standing - Recent expert ratings for Celsius Holdings indicate a consensus target price of $62.5, with one analyst maintaining an Underperform rating at $55 and another upgrading to Overweight with a target of $70 [12][13] - The current trading volume for CELH is 1,608,459, with the stock price at $62.42, reflecting a 0.91% increase [15]