Core Viewpoint - BP's Whiting refinery has resumed operations after a temporary outage caused by an electrical service disruption, which led to a brief evacuation of personnel [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Updates - The Whiting refinery, with a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, resumed operations following the restoration of power [1]. - A fire incident last week resulted in multiple units being taken offline, and the company is in the process of bringing its 110,000 bpd fluid catalytic cracking unit back online [2]. - Planned maintenance work began in mid-September, affecting the crude processing unit and fluid catalytic cracker, with an expected duration of two months [3]. Group 2: Refinery Significance - The Whiting refinery is the largest in the U.S. Midwest and produces a variety of liquid fuels, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [3].

Core Insights - The Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, a significant asset for Rosneft, was forced to halt a major crude distillation unit due to a Ukrainian drone attack, resulting in a fire at the facility [1][2] - The affected unit, CDU-4, processes approximately 4 million metric tons of crude annually, accounting for about 80,000 barrels per day, which is nearly 25% of the refinery's total capacity [2] - The attack is part of a broader strategy by Ukraine to target Russian fuel infrastructure, which has implications for domestic fuel availability in Russia as winter approaches [3][4] Industry Impact - The Ryazan refinery processed 13.1 million tons of crude last year, producing 2.3 million tons of gasoline, 3.4 million tons of diesel, and 4.2 million tons of fuel oil, indicating a significant contribution to Russia's fuel supply [4] - A prolonged outage at the refinery could exacerbate fuel shortages in Russia, particularly during the winter months when heating demand is high [4] - While the immediate supply impact on global markets is limited, the symbolic nature of the attack raises the risk premium in oil prices and challenges the Kremlin's ability to safeguard its critical infrastructure [5]

Group 1 - PBF Energy Inc. experienced a significant stock price increase of 15.67%, closing at $34.10, nearing its 52-week high as investors adjusted their portfolios ahead of the upcoming earnings report [1][3] - The company is set to release its financial and operating highlights on October 30, along with a conference call to discuss the results [2] - As one of the largest independent oil refiners in North America, PBF Energy is expected to benefit from the rising energy demand in the US, driven by substantial investments in artificial intelligence data centers [3] Group 2 - For the third quarter, PBF Energy targets a total throughput of between 865,000 and 915,000 barrels per day [4] - The company aims to achieve over $200 million in annualized, run-rate sustainable cost savings by year-end, with a goal of increasing this to $350 million by the end of 2026 [4]

Trade tensions remain a key focus for India markets, with senior executives at refiners warning that flows of Russian oil will likely fall to near zero following US sanctions.Read what could move markets today for free with your email. https://t.co/L3ggDlbT5x ...

Trade tensions remain a key focus for India markets, with senior executives at refiners warning that flows of Russian oil will likely fall to near zero following US sanctions. Read what could move markets today for free with your email. https://t.co/zY8OKBi1wR ...

Core Viewpoint - Phillips 66 is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $2.81 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +37.8%, while revenues are projected to be $29.92 billion, down 17.3% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 20% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2, suggesting a favorable outlook, but the lack of a positive Earnings ESP makes it challenging to predict a consensus EPS beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Phillips 66 exceeded the expected earnings of $1.66 per share by delivering $2.38, resulting in a surprise of +43.37% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Market Reaction Considerations - An earnings beat or miss may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [15]. - While betting on stocks expected to beat earnings can increase success odds, Phillips 66 does not currently appear to be a compelling earnings-beat candidate [17].

Core Insights - Analysts expect Valero Energy (VLO) to report quarterly earnings of $2.91 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 155.3% with revenues projected at $29.77 billion, down 9.4% from the previous year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 36% over the past 30 days, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [1] Revenue Projections - Total operating revenues from refining are expected to be $28.91 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 7.8% [4] - Total operating revenues from ethanol are projected at $1.13 billion, down 1.4% year-over-year [4] - Total operating revenues from renewable diesel are estimated at $1.11 billion, reflecting a 9% decrease year-over-year [4] Refining Margins - The U.S. Mid-Continent region's refining margin per barrel is expected to reach $10.33, up from $7.92 a year ago [5] - The U.S. West Coast region's refining margin per barrel is projected at $13.74, compared to $7.31 in the same quarter last year [5] - The U.S. Gulf Coast region's refining margin per barrel is anticipated to be $10.65, an increase from $9.03 reported in the same quarter last year [6] Throughput Volumes - Refining throughput volumes per day are estimated at 3,007.56 thousand barrels, up from 2,884.00 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year [6] - U.S. Gulf Coast region throughput volumes per day are projected at 1,805.39 thousand barrels, slightly up from 1,799.00 thousand barrels year-over-year [7] - U.S. Mid-Continent region throughput volumes per day are expected to reach 447.87 thousand barrels, compared to 419.00 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year [7] Overall Performance - Analysts predict that the refining margin per barrel will likely reach $12.02, up from $9.09 in the same quarter last year [8] - North Atlantic region throughput volumes per day are expected to be 482.18 thousand barrels, compared to 422.00 thousand barrels a year ago [8] - The North Atlantic region's refining margin per barrel is projected at $14.50, an increase from $11.55 reported in the same quarter last year [9] Market Performance - Valero Energy shares have shown a return of -3.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.2% change [10] - With a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), Valero Energy is expected to outperform the overall market in the near future [10]

Core Insights - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 23, 2025, before the market opens [1] - In the previous quarter, VLO's adjusted earnings were $2.28 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73, mainly due to increased refining margins and lower total costs [1] Earnings Performance - VLO has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the last four quarters but has beaten it three times, resulting in an average surprise of approximately 130% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is $2.94, reflecting a 158% increase from the same period last year [2] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $29.7 billion, indicating a 9.6% decrease compared to the previous year's figure [3] Market Conditions - Average spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in July, August, and September were $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel, respectively, which were lower than the average prices of $81.80, $76.68, and $70.24 per barrel in the same months of the previous year [4] - Lower oil prices are expected to positively impact VLO's bottom line, as crude serves as a raw material for producing final petroleum products [5] Earnings Outlook - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for VLO, as it has an Earnings ESP of -4.85% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [6][8]

Several executives from state-owned Indian refiners say they were caught off guard by Trump’s comments, and some say imports of Russian oil will drop in the short term https://t.co/I05qV2N53d ...

Core Insights - California is experiencing significant refinery closures, with the Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles set to close by the end of 2025, and Valero planning to idle its Bay Area refinery by April 2024, collectively accounting for approximately 18% of the state's refining capacity [5][6][7] Group 1: Job Losses and Economic Impact - Thousands of workers, potentially tens of thousands, are at risk of losing their jobs as California reduces its reliance on fossil fuels, with an estimated loss of nearly 58,000 workers in the oil and gas industries between 2021 and 2030 [3][9] - The fossil fuel industry employs around 94,000 people in California, and the closure of refineries will have a significant economic impact on local communities, such as Benicia, where Valero contributes about $7.7 million annually in taxes [8][9] Group 2: Legislative and Regulatory Actions - California's energy regulators are negotiating to keep the Valero plant operational and have recently backed off a proposal to penalize oil companies for high profits, indicating a shift in approach to support the industry [4] - Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation to expedite oil well permitting in the Central Valley, reflecting inconsistent messaging regarding the state's climate policies and their impact on the oil industry [4][7] Group 3: Support for Displaced Workers - The state has established the Displaced Oil and Gas Worker Fund to provide career training and job opportunities, awarding nearly $30 million to various groups, although funding is set to expire in 2027 [11][12] - Governor Newsom has allocated $20 million in the 2022-2023 budget for a pilot program to train displaced workers to plug abandoned oil wells, emphasizing the need for a clear transition plan for affected workers [12][13] Group 4: Industry Perspectives - Industry representatives argue that California's climate policies threaten blue-collar jobs, with calls for a reassessment of these policies to protect employment in the sector [14] - Workers in the oil industry often earn a living wage without a college degree, but there are concerns about job security and the lack of a clear transition plan to new fields [15][16]