(Bloomberg) — South Korea’s stock market renaissance in 2025 was one for the history books. Buoyed by world-beating gains in arms exporters to eye-popping surge in AI and K-beauty shares, the market just capped its strongest advance in a quarter century. The Kospi (^KS11) Index has soared 76% this year, compared with the S&P 500’s 17% advance so far and MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 25% gain. The Korean benchmark’s performance, the best among major equity gauges, has been helped by chip heavyweights Samsung E ...

AndresGarciaM / Getty Images Quick Read BBEU returned 36.9% year-to-date through late December 2025. The S&P 500 gained 17.8% in the same period. The fund saw $678.7M in inflows during one October week. Outstanding units surged 16.4%. European defense contractors and luxury brands drove gains. Tech exposure remains lower than U.S. indexes. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. When curr ...

Group 1: AI and Tech Sector Outlook - The tech sector, particularly the AI trade, is expected to be a significant winner in 2025, but there are concerns about volatility in 2026 due to a mismatch between infrastructure buildout and enterprise AI adoption [1][2] - The semiconductor index has risen nearly 48% year-to-date, while the software index (IGV) has only increased by 7.8%, indicating a lag in software adoption compared to hardware [3] - Only about 30% of the global 2000 companies are ready to adopt Generative AI, with 70% still in the process of data cloud migration and cleansing, suggesting that significant enterprise AI adoption may not occur until 2027 or 2028 [5][6] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - Major tech companies are expected to continue significant capital expenditures (capex), with Microsoft and Google being the only firms capable of funding this due to their strong cash flow [7][8] - Concerns are rising regarding the financial stress and debt loads of some tech companies, particularly those with negative free cash flow, as they may struggle to fund infrastructure builds [8][9] - The potential need for several major tech companies to raise substantial capital simultaneously could drain equity liquidity, impacting existing investors [9] Group 3: Component Costs and Market Dynamics - Rising component costs, particularly for DRAM memory, are becoming a critical issue, with average selling prices (ASPs) for DRAM up 20% sequentially, which could affect margins and demand elasticity [11][12] - Companies in the PC supply chain and handset areas may face shortages of required memory due to high AI spending, leading to potential price increases [12][13] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the sanctions imposed by China on US defense companies, is viewed as a form of economic warfare that could escalate tensions between the two nations [14][16] - The shift in defense budgets towards AI technologies is significant, and the ongoing sanctions may have long-term implications for economic and defense strategies in 2026 and beyond [15][17]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 achieved an 18% return year-to-date in 2025, despite economic uncertainty driven by trade policies [2] - The year was marked by significant volatility, with the S&P 500 initially dropping 17% year-to-date due to tariff announcements before recovering to a 15% return [4] Tariff Impact - President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025 caused the S&P 500 to fall below 5,000 points, with the index dropping 4.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing nearly 1,700 points in a single day [3] - The effective U.S. tariff rate peaked at nearly 17% in April 2025, a sevenfold increase from January's average, resulting in an estimated average tax increase of $1,100 per U.S. household [4] Sector Reactions - Sectors with high foreign revenue exposure, such as technology, materials, and energy, were particularly vulnerable to tariff impacts, while defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities were expected to fare better [5] - Pharmaceutical companies like Merck, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson saw minimal stock movement following the announcement of 100% import taxes on branded pharmaceuticals, as existing U.S. manufacturing plans mitigated potential impacts [6] Geopolitical Developments - The announcement of a new class of Navy battleships under Trump's "Golden Fleet" initiative led to significant stock price increases for defense contractors, with Huntington Ingalls Industries shares rising nearly 87.1% since the start of 2025 [7] - Trump's military actions and geopolitical statements, such as strikes against ISIS in Nigeria, had varying impacts on market sentiment, with the Nigerian Exchange losing approximately $170 million in value following threats of military action [7] Digital Market Dynamics - Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC), which merged with Trump Media & Technology Group, exhibited high volatility, with a market cap of $3.96 billion as of December 2025, reflecting the influence of political events on stock performance [8] International Relations and Market Effects - Trump's efforts for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war led to a 2% dip in Brent crude oil prices and a 10% drop in European natural gas prices, while European equity indices generally rose [9] - The aerospace and defense sector experienced a decline following Trump's pledge of U.S. support for Ukraine, indicating profit-taking behavior among investors [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that defense contracts have significantly increased due to escalating global security challenges [1] Group 2 - The rise in defense contracts indicates a growing demand for military and security solutions [1] - This trend reflects the broader geopolitical landscape and the need for enhanced national security measures [1]

Core Insights - The Avantis International Equity ETF (AVDE) achieved a remarkable 39% return in 2025, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500, which gained 18%, and Bitcoin, which saw a nearly 10% decline [2][3][8] Performance Comparison - AVDE's performance highlighted a fundamental shift in international markets, with the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF gaining 32%, indicating that AVDE's active management strategy added approximately 7 percentage points of alpha over passive international exposure [3] Drivers of Performance - European economic stabilization and higher interest rates created favorable conditions for financial stocks, with AVDE's portfolio heavily invested in European banks such as HSBC, UBS, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank, contributing to the fund's success as the STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index surged 65% [4] - Increased defense spending due to geopolitical tensions benefited European defense contractors like Rheinmetall, Safran, and Rolls-Royce, with the European defense sector climbing nearly 60% in 2025, further enhancing AVDE's performance [5] - Currency movements played a significant role, as the weakening of the dollar against the euro and pound resulted in translation gains for U.S. investors holding international stocks, amplifying returns [6] Fund Characteristics - AVDE employs an active management strategy with factor tilts towards value, profitability, and smaller companies, leading to an overweight in financials and industrials while underweighting mega-cap tech [7] - The fund maintains extreme diversification with over 1,000 positions, ensuring no single stock exceeds 1% of the portfolio, which mitigates concentration risk [7] - AVDE charges a low expense ratio of 0.23%, making it an attractive option for investors [8]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a year-end rally, with major indexes near record levels, driven by positive investor sentiment, robust economic data, and a dovish Federal Reserve stance [1][11] - The "Santa Claus rally" is in effect, with historical data showing the S&P 500 has risen 76% of the time during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, averaging a gain of 1.3% [3] Major Market Indexes - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 0.3% to 6,932.05, with a year-to-date increase of 17.8% [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced 0.6% to 48,731.16, marking a 14.5% increase for the year [2] - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) rose 0.2% to 23,613.31, contributing to a 22.3% year-to-date gain [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third consecutive time in 2025, lowering the target range to between 3.5% and 3.75%, with projections indicating one to two quarter-point cuts in 2026 [4] - The November 2025 annual inflation rate was 2.7%, below the forecast of 3.1%, marking the lowest since July [5] - The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annual pace in Q3 2025, the fastest growth in two years [5] Corporate Developments - Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) shares climbed 7.3% after FDA approval of its GLP-1 pill for obesity treatment, highlighting innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [7] - Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII) shares rose 0.3% due to U.S. government plans for new battleships, indicating potential increased government spending [8] - ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) shares dipped 1.5% after announcing the acquisition of cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the tech industry [8] - Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technologies (MU) are top performers, with AI spending accounting for 14% of Q3 GDP and 37% of real GDP growth through the first nine months of 2025 [9] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) surged 5.8% as its board evaluates potential acquisitions, while Nike (NKE) rose 4.6% after Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased nearly $3 million in shares [10]

Core Insights - Geopolitical instability is driving increased defense budgets globally, particularly in the U.S. and its allies, benefiting major defense contractors like Kratos Defense & Security Solutions and Lockheed Martin [2][19] - The strategic focus on defense modernization and security demand makes these companies attractive to long-term investors [3] Company Analysis: Kratos Defense - Kratos Defense is experiencing significant growth in its unmanned systems sector, driven by rising defense contracts and demand for cost-effective drones [6][19] - The company specializes in innovative technologies such as unmanned aerial systems and hypersonic systems, aligning with the U.S. Department of Defense's shift towards modern, autonomous, and affordable military solutions [7][19] - Kratos shows stronger earnings growth expectations, with a projected EPS increase of 4.08% for 2025 and 38.95% for 2026 [12] - The company has zero debt, with a time-to-interest earned ratio of 11.8, indicating strong financial health [16] Company Analysis: Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin remains a leading U.S. defense contractor with a consistent flow of large contracts from the Pentagon and allies, including a $10.9 billion contract for helicopters and a $9.8 billion contract for missile interceptors [9][19] - Despite securing substantial contracts, Lockheed Martin's EPS is projected to decrease by 22.55% for 2025, with a slight increase of 34.07% for 2026 [14] - The company carries significant debt, with a total debt to capital ratio of 78.21% and a time-to-interest earned ratio of 5.5 [16] Stock Performance - In the past six months, Kratos Defense shares have risen by 102.3%, while Lockheed Martin shares have only increased by 5.1% [17] - Kratos Defense's shares trade at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 8.74X, compared to Lockheed Martin's 1.44X, indicating a higher valuation relative to sales [15] Investment Recommendation - Given the stronger earnings growth, better debt management, and superior price performance, Kratos Defense is currently viewed as a more favorable investment option compared to Lockheed Martin [20]

The Pentagon increased the value of a contract with Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT)  on Tuesday and awarded a new contract to Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) .Pentagon Boosts C-130J, B-52 DealsThe deal, covering the development, engineering, and delivery of C‑130J aircraft, has risen from an initial $15 billion to $25 billion. The contract includes sales to several countries, including Egypt, Australia, New Zealand, France, the Philippines, Norway, and Germany. Additionally, Boeing Co. secured a $2 billion contract for ...

Core Viewpoint - Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) has been downgraded by JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley due to concerns over long-term cash flow estimates and pension-related outflows, despite a bullish outlook for the aerospace and defense sector through 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Downgrades and Price Targets - JP Morgan downgraded Lockheed Martin's rating to Neutral from Overweight, citing that anticipated pension-related outflows next year could limit cash flow growth, making the expected 8% growth seem optimistic [2]. - Morgan Stanley also downgraded Lockheed Martin to Equal Weight from Overweight and reduced its price target from $630 to $543 as part of a broader sector outlook for 2026 [3]. - JP Morgan raised its price target for Lockheed Martin from $465 to $515, reflecting a positive outlook despite the downgrade [2]. Group 2: Analyst Consensus and Market Position - As of December 22, Wall Street analysts have a consensus Hold rating for Lockheed Martin, with a one-year average share price target of $524.93, indicating a potential upside of 9% [4]. - Lockheed Martin is recognized as one of the largest defense contractors globally, known for manufacturing significant military aircraft such as the F-35 [4].