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华泰证券:大宗化学品正处于产能及库存周期双拐点 有望进入上行期
Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the profitability of bulk chemicals is expected to reach a ten-year low in the second half of 2025 due to weak demand and the end of supply-side increments [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The current downturn in the chemical raw materials and products industry is characterized by a fixed asset completion growth rate turning negative starting June 2025 after three years of profit stagnation [1] - The new capacity for bulk chemicals is projected to be limited in 2026-2027, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1] - The textile, clothing, and rubber-plastic products sectors are experiencing a continuous decline in inventory, marking a transition from active destocking to passive restocking for chemical raw materials and products [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Huatai Securities believes that the bulk chemicals sector is at a dual inflection point concerning capacity and inventory cycles, with a potential recovery expected as domestic and international demand rebounds in 2026 [1] - The sales volume of Chinese chemicals accounts for over half of the global market, suggesting that future capital expenditure intensity for companies will significantly decrease compared to the period from 2015 to 2025, while dividend payout ratios are expected to rise [1]