Workflow
港股通大消费
icon
Search documents
首席观点∣港股通大消费择时跟踪:维持均衡仓位,待增量政策右侧落地
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 02:34
Investment Logic - The monthly timing model for the consumption sector under the Hong Kong Stock Connect shows a return of -1.66% for April 2025, outperforming the equal-weighted benchmark return of -2.21% and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index [1] - From November 2018 to April 2025, the strategy achieved an annualized return of 9.25%, with a maximum drawdown of -29.72% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.52, indicating superior performance across various metrics compared to the benchmark [1] - The strategy consistently generated positive excess returns in most years, effectively managing downside risk during periods of benchmark drawdown [1] Timing Strategy Framework - The timing strategy framework for the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index is constructed based on dynamic macro event factors, focusing on the impact of China's macroeconomic conditions on the overall performance of Hong Kong consumption theme companies [2] - The strategy utilizes over 20 macroeconomic indicators across four dimensions: economy, inflation, monetary policy, and credit, to identify optimal event factors and data processing methods for each period [2] - Five macro factors were selected for their effectiveness in timing the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index, with a scoring system to determine the timing position based on the proportion of bullish signals from these factors [2]