Core Insights - The China Retail Prosperity Index (CRPI) for September reached 50.6%, marking an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and the highest level in nearly eight months [1] Group 1: Retail Sector Performance - The retail sector's three major category indices are all in the expansion zone, with the merchandise operation index at 50.6%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month [1] - Positive sub-indices for merchandise operation include sales revenue, profit levels, and average transaction value, all above the critical point, while the negative sub-index for operating costs is below the critical point, indicating a favorable operating environment [1] - The increase in consumer demand for goods, particularly from students and parents as the school season begins, has contributed to the improved performance in offline retail [1] Group 2: Leasing and E-commerce Performance - The leasing operation index stands at 51.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, but still within a high expansion range [2] - Positive sub-indices for leasing operations include average store rental income, shop occupancy rates, and changes in operational venues, with average store rental income at 53.3%, indicating strong expectations for rental income [2] - The e-commerce operation index is at 50.2%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a return to the expansion zone, with total physical sales index for e-commerce also at 50.2%, reflecting a recovery in online retail sales expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The retail industry in China shows signs of structural shifts with a slight decline in the retail prosperity index, indicating a need for improved consumer spending capacity [1] Retail Industry Overview - The China Retail Prosperity Index (CRPI) for June stands at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining expansion for ten consecutive months [1] - The decline in the CRPI suggests that while online retail has seen significant growth due to events like the "6.18" promotion, overall consumer spending remains insufficient [1] Sector Performance - The three main categories of the retail sector show varied performance: - The merchandise operation index is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points [1] - The leasing operation index is at 51.3%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [1] - The e-commerce operation index is at 50.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [1] Merchandise Operations - The sales index for merchandise operations is at 49.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating weakened expectations for offline retail [2] - The profitability index for merchandise operations is at 49.0%, down 2.3 percentage points, reflecting low profit expectations for June [1][2] Leasing Operations - The average single-store rental income index is at 52.8%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in revenue expectations for leasing businesses [2] - The shop rental rate index is at 52.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, but still in the expansion zone, suggesting a decrease in rental activity [2] - The operational cost index for leasing businesses is at 50.0%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating improved cost pressure [2] E-commerce Operations - The total sales index for e-commerce is at 51.8%, up 1.2 percentage points, driven by the extended "6.18" promotional activities [3] - The online total product count index is at 51.3%, down 0.7 percentage points, showing stable inventory intentions among e-commerce businesses [3] - The e-commerce cost index is at 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a reduction in cost pressure due to government policies [3]