药品制造与研发

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复星医药(02196):DPP-1小分子创新药BD出海,研发实力获认可
CSC SECURITIES (HK) LTD· 2025-08-12 06:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 23.2, indicating a potential upside of 19.5% from the current price of HKD 19.34 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Expedition for the development, production, and commercialization of the investigational product XH-S004 outside of China and Hong Kong, with potential revenues of up to USD 650 million [5][6]. - The DPP-1 small molecule drug XH-S004 has significant market potential, targeting conditions such as non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, with a growing global interest in DPP-1 inhibitors [6][10]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards due to the recent business development transaction, projecting net profits of RMB 34.3 billion, RMB 39.2 billion, and RMB 46.1 billion for 2025-2027, representing year-over-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 17% respectively [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 34.35 billion, with an EPS of RMB 1.29, and a corresponding H-share PE ratio of 14X [8][11]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at RMB 44.87 billion for 2025, with a steady increase expected in subsequent years [11]. - The company’s dividend per share (DPS) is projected to grow from RMB 0.39 in 2025 to RMB 0.52 by 2027, reflecting a dividend yield increase from 1.44% to 1.93% [8][11].