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中国人工智能领域扩张;浪潮信息评级上调至买入;沛嘉医疗评级下调至中性_ China AI in expansion; Inspur up to Buy; Piotech down to Neutral
2025-07-19 14:57
Summary of Conference Call Records Company: Inspur (000977.SZ) Key Points 1. **Upgrade to Buy**: Inspur has been upgraded from Neutral to Buy due to improving GPU supply in the China market, new GPU platforms expected in 2H25, and the growth of local chipset platforms to meet generative AI demand in China. The 12-month price target (TP) has been raised to Rmb77.8 from Rmb55, indicating a potential upside of 39.5% [1][9][10]. 2. **Revenue and Earnings Growth**: Revenue projections for Inspur have been revised upwards by 8% for 2025, 25% for 2026, and 27% for 2027, primarily driven by higher AI training server revenues. The company expects a significant ramp-up in shipments of AI training servers due to better GPU supply and new product cycles [14][18]. 3. **Market Position**: Inspur is positioned as a leading AI server ODM in China, supplying major Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) and expanding its offerings from global-tier GPU-powered servers to local chipset-powered servers. This transition is expected to enhance its market share and profitability [10][13][14]. 4. **Earnings Revision**: Earnings have been revised upwards by 7% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 9% for 2027, despite a lower gross margin (GM) and higher operating expenses (Opex) ratio. The expected GM is projected to decline slightly due to the higher contribution from AI training servers, which typically have lower margins [14][18]. 5. **Sensitivity Analysis**: A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 10% increase in AI training server shipments could lead to a 6% increase in total revenues and a 2% increase in gross profit. Conversely, a decrease in shipments would have the opposite effect [17]. 6. **Investment Thesis**: The investment thesis for Inspur is based on the anticipated increase in capital expenditure (Capex) from Chinese CSPs, telecom operators, and government clients focused on AI training and inferencing. The emergence of advanced AI applications is also expected to drive growth [29][32]. 7. **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected ramp-up of AI servers in China, potential GPU supply constraints, and intensified pricing competition among ODM suppliers, which could negatively impact earnings [27][28][32]. Company: Piotech (688072.SS) Key Points 1. **Downgrade to Neutral**: Piotech has been downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to pressures on near-term profitability stemming from new product ramp-up. The revised TP is set at Rmb185, reflecting a 17% upside potential [2][33]. 2. **Profitability Concerns**: The company's gross margin fell to 20% in Q1 2025 from 47% in Q1 2024, attributed to higher delivery and service costs associated with new products. The expectation is that it will take time for margins to recover to the historical average of around 40% for deposition tools [35][37]. 3. **Earnings Revision**: Earnings estimates have been reduced by 3% to 5% for 2025-2027, primarily due to lower margins and adjustments in government subsidies. The target P/E multiple has been reset from 42.5x to 37.7x to reflect these changes [34][38]. 4. **Market Position**: Piotech is recognized as a local leader in deposition tools, expanding into high-end products. However, the company faces challenges due to its exposure to competitive mature nodes and the costs associated with new product delivery [34][39]. 5. **Government Subsidies**: Expected government subsidies have been lowered, reflecting the company's shift towards self-funding for new production facilities. Despite this, there is an ongoing effort to deepen cooperation with government entities [37][39]. Conclusion Inspur is positioned for significant growth in the AI server market, supported by favorable supply conditions and increasing demand. Conversely, Piotech faces challenges that have led to a downgrade, highlighting the importance of managing new product costs and maintaining profitability in a competitive landscape.
野村:Meta 在 ASIC 服务器方面雄心勃勃,其 MTIA AI 服务器有望在 2026 年成为一个里程碑
野村· 2025-06-19 09:46
Asia AI Server Global Markets Research EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY Meta's ambition on ASIC AI server Meta's MTIA AI servers could mark a milestone in 2026F AI ASIC is booming; a potential cross over in units from 2H26-2027 In the world of AI servers, nVidia (NVDA US, Not rated) has been dominating 80%+ market "value" so far, vs. ASIC AI servers that have roughly 8-11% in value share (based on Bloomberg consensus estimates). However, if we just compare the number of units for AI ASICs vs. nVidia's AI GPUs (which can ...
高盛:ASIC 人工智能服务器及组件强劲增长;2025 年第三季度机型转换
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-11 02:16
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the Taiwan Technology sector, including Wiwynn, Wistron, Hon Hai, Gigabyte, and various AI server components [25]. Core Insights - The Taiwan Technology sector is experiencing strong growth in ASIC AI servers and related components, with notable revenue increases reported by key players such as Wiwynn (+187% YoY) and Gigabyte (+108% YoY) [1][8]. - The report highlights a transition in server models expected in 3Q25, with a cautious outlook on rack-level AI server shipments due to macro uncertainties [9]. - The demand for components like liquid cooling, silicon photonics, rail kits, and chassis is anticipated to rise, driven by specification upgrades and the increasing adoption of AI technologies [9][10]. Summary by Sections ASIC AI Servers and Components - ASIC AI servers are showing robust growth, with Wiwynn's revenues up 187% YoY, significantly exceeding estimates [1][8]. - Baseboard-based AI servers also demonstrate strong performance, with Gigabyte achieving 108% YoY revenue growth [1][8]. - Liquid cooling solutions are gaining traction, with AVC reporting 87% YoY revenue growth [1][8]. Market Outlook - The report expresses caution regarding rack-level AI server shipments in the second half of 2025, while maintaining a positive outlook for ASIC and baseboard-based AI servers [9]. - The global market for AI servers is projected to reach 19,000 racks by 2025, indicating a significant growth opportunity [9]. Non-AI Sector Insights - The smartphone supply chain is expected to strengthen in 3Q25, with new high-end models being prepared for launch [10]. - AI PCs are anticipated to see continued penetration, with brands like ASUS and Lenovo leading the charge [10]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investments include AI server ODMs and brands such as Wiwynn, Wistron, Hon Hai, and Gigabyte, as well as components like AVC, Fositek, and LandMark [11].
高盛:台湾科技行业前瞻-ASIC 人工智能服务器出货量高预期
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-09 05:29
9 June 2025 | 2:01AM HKT Taiwan Technology: Monthly revenues preview on Chenbro, Auras, E Ink; ASIC AI servers / e-papers to drive growth; FX affects 2Q25 We preview Chenbro, Auras, and E Ink monthly revenues in this report. Chenbro: May revenues miss on FX, while new rack products (noise-cancellation racks) to support 3Q25 revenues. Auras: May revenues declined 20% MoM due to FX impact and production sites diversification, while rising liquid cooling adoption rate and expansion from GPU AI servers to ASIC ...