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京东方精电:2025 preview: near-term earnings dragged by pricing pressure and new plant profitability-20260227
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-27 01:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for BOE Varitronix, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to report FY25E revenue of HK$14,533 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth, while net profit is projected to decline by 3% to HK$378 million due to domestic destocking pressure and pricing pressure [1][9]. - For 2H25E, revenue is estimated at HK$7,863 million (+8% YoY) and net profit at HK$198 million (-10% YoY), primarily impacted by domestic demand weakness and profitability in the system segment [1][9]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the report is optimistic about earnings recovery, driven by overseas sales growth, capacity ramp-up in Vietnam, and margin improvements from the Chengdu plant and system business [1][9]. Financial Summary - FY25E revenue is projected at HK$14,533 million, with a year-over-year growth of 8.1%, while net profit is expected to decline by 3.3% to HK$378 million [2][10]. - The report revises down FY25-27E EPS by 5-7% to account for near-term domestic headwinds and pricing pressure [1][12]. - The target price is set at HK$8.40, down from the previous target of HK$8.84, indicating a potential upside of 79.8% from the current price of HK$4.67 [3][14]. Earnings Estimates - The earnings estimates for FY25E include revenue of HK$14,533 million, operating profit of HK$421 million, and net profit of HK$378 million [10][12]. - For FY26E, revenue is expected to grow to HK$15,979 million, with net profit increasing to HK$473 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth [2][11]. - The report highlights a projected operating margin of 2.9% for FY25E, improving to 3.3% by FY26E [12][19]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 7.8x FY26E P/E and 6.3x FY27E P/E, which the report considers attractive in terms of risk/reward [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the company's industry leadership in the auto display market and strong support from its parent company, BOE, for R&D technology and order/client wins [1][14].