Summary of CATL Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) Key Points and Arguments Earnings and Valuation - CATL's H-shares were upgraded to Overweight (OW) on September 14, 2025, due to a 10% earnings lift, which was 10% above Bloomberg consensus estimates [2][17] - The earnings estimate for 2026 has been raised by an additional 10% to Rmb94 billion, which is also 10% above consensus [2][17] - The price target for CATL's A-shares is lifted to Rmb520, based on a 25x P/E ratio, while the H-shares target is set at HK$650, based on a 29x P/E, indicating a 15% premium over A-shares [2][17] Market Dynamics - Global EV and ESS battery demand forecasts have been increased by 9% and 17% respectively for 2026, indicating a strong market outlook [5] - Industry supply is expected to remain tight, with nearly a 90% utilization rate (UTR) projected for 2026 [5] - CATL aims to regain market share lost in 2025 due to capacity constraints, with an estimated capacity addition of 300-400 GWh in the upcoming year [5] Competitive Landscape - CATL is the only company rated Overweight among tier-2 battery makers, as expectations for their earnings are already fully priced in, with potential downside risks [5] - The company is positioned to weather material price hikes better than tier-2 players, maintaining stable net unit profits since 2019 [7] Production and Sales Outlook - Production volume for 1Q26 is expected to be flat compared to 4Q25, despite typically being a low season for EV sales in China [6] - There is a potential for inventory restocking and strong growth in ESS production, which could exceed 100% year-on-year [6] Risks and Opportunities - Downside risks include a potential decline in China passenger EV sales, where CATL has approximately 35% exposure in 2026, with a worst-case scenario estimating a 5-10% downside [7] - Upside risks could arise from recovering market shares in both EV and ESS segments, potentially leading to a 23% increase in sales volume [7] Index Inclusion - CATL-H has been confirmed for inclusion in MSCI and FTSE indices, which could enhance its visibility and attractiveness to global investors [7] Price Premium Analysis - The average premium for CATL-H over CATL-A was 27% prior to the IPO lockup expiry, currently standing at 15%. A higher premium is justified due to CATL's leadership in the EV value chain [5][24] - CATL-H traded at a peak premium of 45% over CATL-A, attributed to low liquidity and global investor demand [25] Conclusion - CATL is positioned as a leading player in the EV battery market with strong growth prospects and a favorable valuation compared to peers. The company is expected to navigate potential risks effectively while capitalizing on market opportunities in the EV and ESS sectors [2][5][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to CATL, indicating a positive outlook for the company within the battery supply chain [2]. Core Insights - CATL's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with management reporting strong demand despite US tariffs. The company operates at a high capacity utilization rate and has raised its price target to Rmb330 per share [2][11]. - The company's net profit margin reached an all-time high of 16.5% in 1Q25, attributed to improved unit economics and margins [8][10]. - CATL's market share in China is expected to improve, with continued gains anticipated in the European market [11]. Financial Performance - 1Q25 battery shipments exceeded 120 GWh, with EV batteries accounting for approximately 80% of total shipments [18]. - Revenue for 1Q25 was Rmb 84.7 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase, while net profit was Rmb 13.96 billion, a 33% increase year-over-year [32]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is revised to Rmb 13.92, reflecting a 20.2% growth compared to the previous year [30]. Market Dynamics - The US market represents only a low-single-digit percentage of CATL's total volume, and most contracts are on an FOB basis, meaning customers bear the additional import tariffs [8][20]. - Management confirmed that over half of CATL's energy storage system (ESS) shipments are now AC-side solutions, which have longer revenue recognition timelines [8][22]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb 330 is based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026E, which is at the lower end of the company's historical range due to slower industry growth [12][11]. - The report indicates that CATL's valuation is currently trading below its historical averages, suggesting potential upside [12][11]. Strategic Initiatives - CATL plans to build 1,000 battery swapping stations in 2025, with partnerships established with companies like Sinopec and Nio [26]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the commercial vehicle (CV) battery market, expecting demand to outpace passenger vehicle (PV) demand due to policy support [27].

Summary of CATL Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (CATL) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) and Energy Storage System (ESS) Battery Market Key Points and Arguments 1. **Earnings Estimates Revision**: CATL's 2025E EPS has been cut by 10% due to recent global policy updates affecting sales volume and gross profit margin [2][9][19] 2. **Sales Volume Reduction**: Expected sales volume for 2025 is revised down to 580 GWh, reflecting a 5% reduction, primarily due to the complete removal of US EV sales and slower sales in Europe [9][19] 3. **Gross Profit Margin Impact**: A reduction of 1.7 percentage points in gross profit margin is anticipated, attributed to decreased VAT tax rebates and increased import tariffs [9][19] 4. **Operating Profit and Net Profit**: Projected net profit for 2025 is approximately Rmb 59.58 billion, reflecting a 10% decrease from previous estimates [19] 5. **Valuation Adjustments**: Price target for December 2025 has been lowered from Rmb 400 to Rmb 320, based on a revised P/E multiple of 20x for 2026E [10][15][26] 6. **Market Share Dynamics**: CATL's market share in China is expected to have bottomed out post-3Q23, with anticipated share gains in the European market [14][25] 7. **US Tariff Impact**: The recent US tariff hike poses challenges, as approximately 10% of CATL's volume is exposed to exports to the US [14][25] 8. **ESS Revenue Recognition**: Revenue from ESS sales is recognized only after the system connects to the grid, which can delay revenue recognition for 1-2 years, impacting reported sales figures [20][21] 9. **Future Sales Projections**: For 1Q25, sales volume is expected to be between 130-140 GWh, with a net unit profit of Rmb 0.10 per watt-hour [9][19] 10. **Investment Thesis**: CATL is viewed favorably due to its technology leadership and ability to maintain resilient profits despite market challenges [14][25] Additional Important Information - **Financial Metrics**: - Revenue for FY25E is projected at Rmb 435.93 billion, with a growth rate of 20.4% year-over-year [10][19] - Adjusted EBITDA for FY25E is estimated at Rmb 98.03 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 22.5% [10][19] - **Risks**: Potential risks include a slowdown in global NEV sales, while upside catalysts may arise from CATL's factory developments in the US and new contract announcements [27][25] - **Stock Performance**: The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 17.6%, with a 52-week price range of Rmb 300.06 to Rmb 166.00 [13][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding CATL's financial outlook, market dynamics, and strategic positioning within the EV and ESS battery industry.