Tech stocks continue to dominate the investing conversation on Wall Street – hardly a new development, but this month, the dialogue has turned slightly more bearish than what we’re used to. With the latest artificial intelligence (AI) models threatening to upend entire industries, investors are now chattering about the possibility of a “software Armageddon” that could wipe out legacy blue-chips. And up at the very top of the tech food chain, massive AI spending forecasts by the Magnificent 7 has revived ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a rally as the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut increases, with December odds now at 70%, up from 33% [1] - The technology sector is showing positive momentum, supported by stronger earnings trends compared to the overall market [5] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector is viewed as under-owned and priced for pessimism, having shown healthy earnings trends across various sub-sectors [6] - The technology sector has reset after a significant six-month rally, with some stocks experiencing a 40% decline since October highs [4] Investment Sentiment - There is a belief that the market is not priced for perfection, as some areas have become euphoric, but a reset has occurred [3] - The current market conditions are seen as favorable for continued growth, driven by earnings and advancements in productivity, particularly in AI [13] Future Outlook - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the coming year, which will support higher earnings and market growth [10][14] - Historical trends suggest that November typically sees a bottom around November 20th, leading into a seasonal rally [11] Volatility and Risks - Recent volatility in stocks and Fed funds futures is noted, but it is suggested that the market will rally into December despite potential concerns [15][16] - The market has shifted expectations for a December rate cut to 80%, which could pose a risk if conditions change unexpectedly [15]

Economic Overview - U.S. pre-market futures are at peak highs, with the Dow up 185 points, S&P 500 up 35 points, and Nasdaq up 120 points, indicating a healthy market environment [1] - The small-cap Russell index is up 20 points, showing recovery from a previous selloff, with Q2 earnings season exceeding expectations across various industries [2] Productivity and Labor Costs - U.S. Productivity in Q2 increased by 2.4%, surpassing the expected 1.9%, marking a significant recovery from the previous quarter's -1.8% [3] - Unit Labor Costs rose by 1.6%, slightly above the estimated 1.3%, and down from a revised 6.9% in Q1, indicating improved economic conditions [4] Employment Data - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 226K, 5K higher than estimated, but still below the near-term high of 250K reported in early June [5] - Continuing Jobless Claims reached 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021, but still below the psychologically significant 2 million mark [6] Company Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly reported Q2 earnings of $6.31 per share, exceeding the $5.61 estimate, with revenues of $15.56 billion, up 5.5% [7] - Despite strong earnings, Eli Lilly's shares fell 7% due to disappointing performance of its new obesity pill, which had a 12% weight loss rate [8] - Warner Bros. Discovery reported earnings of $0.63 per share, significantly better than the expected -$0.16, with revenues of $9.81 billion [9] - Ralph Lauren's fiscal Q1 earnings were $3.77 per share, beating the $3.48 estimate, with revenues of $1.7 billion, up 14% year over year [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Wholesale Inventories for June and Consumer Credit data will be released later today, following a previous Consumer Credit increase of $5.1 billion [11]