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Assured Guaranty(AGO) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-27 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - At year-end 2025, the company achieved new per-share highs for adjusted book value at $186.43, adjusted operating shareholders' equity at $126.78, and shareholders' equity at $125.32 [5] - Adjusted operating income per share increased to $9.08 in 2025 from $7.10 in 2024, representing a 28% increase [21] - Fourth quarter 2025 adjusted operating income was $109 million or $2.32 per share, an 83% increase from $66 million or $1.27 per share in the fourth quarter of 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The present value of new business production (PVP) totaled $286 million in 2025, with significant contributions from all three financial guarantee underwriting groups [5] - The company guaranteed over $27 billion of municipal par, a 16% increase from 2024, and achieved a 15-year high in new issue municipal par sold, representing 58% of the market [12] - The U.S. public finance segment originated $206 million in PVP, with a 19% increase in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. municipal market experienced a second consecutive year of record issuance, driving strong demand for municipal bond insurance [11] - Non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance originations contributed $80 million in PVP for 2025, with notable transactions in the U.K. and European Union [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainable long-term growth, having successfully expanded its U.S. municipal secondary market business, which saw a more than tripling in performance compared to the previous year [6] - The acquisition of Warwick Re Limited, renamed Assured Life Reinsurance, diversifies revenue sources and leverages the company's strengths in credit and structured finance [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the U.S. public finance market and infrastructure finance in Europe, anticipating continued strong performance in 2026 [27] - The company highlighted the strength of its underwriting and the successful resolution of previously troubled exposures, which contributed positively to financial results [22] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 12% of its common shares outstanding at the end of 2024, meeting its target of $500 million in share repurchases [6] - A 12% increase in the quarterly dividend per share was announced, marking 14 consecutive years of dividend growth [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on issuance in triple B credits and outlook for 2026 - Management noted a positive trend in the fourth quarter and a strong start in the first quarter of 2026, with several transactions already closed in U.S. public finance and infrastructure finance in Europe [27] Question: Outlook on U.K. utilities and Brightline - Management provided an update on U.K. utilities, indicating an upgrade for Southern Water and focusing on Thames as the only problematic exposure, with active engagement in finding a market-based solution [28] - Regarding Brightline, management expressed confidence in the recovery and highlighted a strong position in the capital stack [30] Question: Exposure in alternative investment portfolio and private credit - Management clarified that while they are invested in the CLO market, they do not take direct exposure to private credit and remain confident in the health of their portfolio [35] Question: Capital allocation between annuity reinsurance and stock buyback - Management indicated that capital management opportunities, including stock buybacks, will be assessed based on market conditions and opportunities in the life and annuity space [36]