From a technical perspective, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is looking like an interesting pick, as it just reached a key level of support. AGO's 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, which is known as a "golden cross" in the trading world.There's a reason traders love a golden cross -- it's a technical chart pattern that can indicate a bullish breakout is on the horizon. This kind of crossover is formed when a stock's short-term moving average breaks above a longer-ter ...

Core Insights - Assured Guaranty reported third-quarter 2025 results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue, leading to a 6.3% increase in share price [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.57, surpassing consensus estimates by 67.2% [2] - Revenue for the quarter was $207 million, which was 12.2% higher than anticipated but represented a 23% decline from the same period last year [2] - Book value per share increased by 9% year-over-year to $121.13, indicating long-term capital growth [2] Market Reaction - Shares closed at $86.90, reflecting a 6.7% increase from the previous close [3] - The stock has shown low volatility, with only three moves greater than 5% in the past year, suggesting that the market views this news as significant [4] - Despite being down 2.9% year-to-date, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $95.47 [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also hit a record of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $6.77 per share, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was $91 million of PVP, a 44% increase from Q3 2024 and a 42% increase from Q2 2025 [5] - U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par in Q3 2025, up from $5.4 billion in Q3 2024 [8] - Secondary market U.S. public finance generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by over $50 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the record issuance in the same period of 2024 [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets while diversifying revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - There is a focus on shorter duration structured finance transactions that allow for quicker capital recycling and better return on equity [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the domestic public finance market returning to normal activity levels after a skewed mix in earlier quarters [35] - The company sees significant growth opportunities in both U.S. public finance and global structured finance, particularly in infrastructure and regulatory capital needs [34][36] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million in share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7] - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by alternative investments, achieving an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management is focused on optimizing yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management indicated that Brightline is experiencing typical startup growing pains but remains comfortable with their exposure [24] Question: Opportunities in the current data center CapEx cycle - The company is actively evaluating opportunities in data centers and has executed in new areas like liquid natural gas [27] Question: Pipeline for growing written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [33][34] Question: Positive developments in Puerto Rico and PREPA exposure - Management emphasized the importance of a deal for recognizing the value of reserves and claims related to PREPA [38]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also reached a record high of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Adjusted operating income for the year-to-date was $6.77 per share, an increase of approximately 17% compared to the same period last year [5] - Adjusted operating income in Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was strong, with $91 million of PVP, which is 44% more than Q3 2024 and 42% more than Q2 2025 [5] - U.S. public finance business produced $152 million of PVP year-to-date, benefiting from record U.S. municipal bond issuance [6] - Secondary market U.S. public finance strategy generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by more than $50 billion year-to-date compared to the record issuance during the first nine months of 2024 [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking for strategic opportunities to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets, aiming to diversify revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - The focus on shorter duration structured finance transactions is expected to provide better returns on equity and quicker capital recycling [13][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the ability to produce and the expected production levels going forward, citing a return to normal business mix in Q3 2025 [36] - The company sees great opportunities in U.S. public finance and global structured finance, particularly in infrastructure and regulatory capital needs [35][36] Other Important Information - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by greater use of alternative investments, achieving an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][17] - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million for share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management indicated that they aim to optimize yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management acknowledged typical growing pains for Brightline but expressed confidence in their exposure due to being in the senior most section of the capital stack [24] Question: Pipeline for growing written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [34][36]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also reached a record high of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024, reflecting a modest decline [15][18] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $6.77 per share, an increase of approximately 17% compared to the same period last year [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was strong, with $91 million of PVP, which is 44% more than Q3 2024 and 42% more than Q2 2025 [5][8] - U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par in Q3 2025, compared to $5.4 billion in Q3 2024, indicating a significant increase in issuance [8][9] - Secondary market U.S. public finance strategy generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by more than $50 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with total primary market insured par volume rising 18% [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking for strategic opportunities to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets, aiming to diversify revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - There is a focus on building the subscription finance business, characterized by shorter duration and renewable transactions, which allows for quicker capital recycling [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the pipeline for growth in written premiums into 2026, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [32][34] - The company is actively evaluating opportunities in data centers and has executed in new areas like liquid natural gas, indicating a proactive approach to market trends [26][34] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million share repurchase, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7][20] - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by alternative investments, which have generated an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management indicated that they work with outside investment managers to optimize yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management acknowledged Brightline's growing pains as a startup but expressed confidence in their exposure due to being in the senior most section of the capital stack [24] Question: Opportunities in the current data center CapEx cycle - Management confirmed they are actively evaluating data center opportunities and have executed in new areas like liquid natural gas [26] Question: Pipeline for growth in written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [32][34] Question: Positive developments in Puerto Rico and PREPA exposure - Management stated that recognition of value in reserves would require a deal, emphasizing their strong position as a creditor [38]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate as of August 2025 was 4.3%, up from 4.1% at the beginning of the year[393]. - The annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.8%, following a decline of 0.6% in Q1 2025[393]. - The inflation rate in the U.S. for the 12-month period ending September 2025 was 3.0%, compared to 2.4% for the same period in 2024[394]. - The U.K. inflation rate for the 12 months through September 2025 was 4.1%, up from 2.6% in the previous year[394]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate from a target range of 5.25%-5.50% to 3.75%-4.00% between September 2024 and October 2025[395]. - The Bank of England's base rate was lowered to 4.00% as of November 6, 2025, in response to easing inflationary pressures[397]. Company Performance - Net income attributable to AGL for Q3 2025 was $105 million, down from $171 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to foreign exchange losses of $23 million compared to gains of $55 million in the prior year[432][437]. - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million, a decrease from $130 million in Q3 2024, mainly due to lower benefits in loss expense for the U.S. RMBS sector[443]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net income attributable to AGL was $384 million, compared to $358 million in the same period of 2024, driven by a fair value gain on credit derivatives of $103 million[438]. - As of September 30, 2025, shareholders' equity attributable to AGL was $5,658 million, up from $5,495 million at the end of 2024[433]. - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $207 million, down from $269 million in Q3 2024, with net earned premiums at $94 million compared to $97 million[436]. Share Repurchase and Investments - The Company has repurchased 155 million common shares for $5.8 billion since 2013, representing 80% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program[424]. - The Company has agreed to invest an aggregate amount of $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments[422]. - Cumulative share repurchases since 2013 amounted to $5,782 million, with an estimated accretive effect of approximately $65.18 per share in shareholders' equity attributable to AGL[427][428]. - The company redeemed $250 million of its common stock in Q3 2025, receiving $213 million in cash and $37 million in alternative investments[428]. Market Activity - New municipal bonds issued totaled $430.0 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $375.1 billion in the same period of 2024[407]. - The total insured amount for new municipal bonds was $34.2 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025, an increase from $28.9 billion in the same period of 2024[407]. - The bond insurance market penetration based on par was 7.9% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 7.7% for the same period in 2024[407]. - U.S. public finance GWP in Q3 2025 increased to $77 million from $35 million in Q3 2024, representing a 120% growth[471]. - Total GWP for Q3 2025 was $75 million, up from $61 million in Q3 2024, marking a 23% increase[471]. Financial Metrics - The effective tax rate for Q3 2025 was 15.4%, compared to 19.9% in Q3 2024, reflecting the tax jurisdictions of the company's subsidiaries[436][439]. - The overall pre-tax book yield of available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments was 4.80% as of September 30, 2025, compared to 4.10% a year earlier[488]. - The total net par outstanding for the financial guaranty portfolio increased to $274,875 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $261,552 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 5.03%[577]. - The total U.S. public finance exposure reached $212,091 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $201,175 million at the end of 2024, marking an increase of 5.93%[577]. Risk Factors - Assured Guaranty is exposed to risks from geopolitical tensions, including the conflict arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine[381]. - The company anticipates that a recession may increase the likelihood of defaults among obligors whose obligations it guarantees[392]. - The company identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia, with direct insurance exposure to Eastern Europe limited to $210 million in net par outstanding[450]. Operational Changes - The company opened new offices in Australia and Singapore in 2024 to expand its financial guaranty business geographically[409]. - The company is actively monitoring market volatility, which may create new business opportunities despite potential risks[392]. - The company has ongoing strategic transactions with Sound Point Capital Management and Assured Healthcare Partners, which may impact future performance[381]. Loss and Expense Management - The insurance segment's adjusted operating income for nine months 2025 was $389 million, compared to $427 million in nine months 2024, reflecting a decrease in performance[460]. - The company reported a loss and LAE of $38 million in nine months 2025, compared to a benefit of $54 million in nine months 2024[446]. - The economic loss development for U.S. public finance exposures was $51 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, mainly attributable to PREPA and certain healthcare exposures[505]. - The total net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for public finance was $103 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $319 million as of September 30, 2024[500].

Financial Performance - Adjusted operating income reached $336 million, a 17% increase per share compared to the same period in 2024[15] - The company earned $124 million of adjusted operating income in the third quarter, a 6% increase on a per share basis above the third quarter 2024 amount[11] - The alternative investment portfolio generated $112 million of pre-tax adjusted operating income[15] New Business and Capital Management - $25 billion of new business par was insured, the highest amount in the first nine months in a decade[15] - $9 billion of new business par was insured in the third quarter, the largest third-quarter amount in a decade[11, 18] - $194 million of PVP was generated[15, 18] - Over 4 million shares were repurchased at a cost of $369 million, representing nearly 9% of shares outstanding on December 31, 2024[15] Portfolio and Resources - The total investment portfolio plus cash stands at $89 billion[28, 64] - Claims-paying resources are $101 billion, resulting in a net par outstanding to claims-paying resources ratio of 27:1[28] - Net par outstanding is $2749 billion, with U S public finance accounting for $2121 billion, non-U S public finance for $513 billion, and global structured finance for $115 billion[28]

Core Insights - Assured Guaranty reported Q3 CY2025 results that exceeded market revenue expectations, with a revenue of $207 million, although this represents a 23% year-on-year decline [1][2] - The non-GAAP profit was $2.57 per share, which is 67.2% above analysts' consensus estimates [1][2] Financial Performance - Net Premiums Earned were $93 million, slightly above analyst estimates of $92 million, reflecting a 4.1% year-on-year decline [2] - Revenue of $207 million surpassed analyst expectations of $184.5 million, marking a 23% year-on-year decline [2] - Adjusted EPS was $2.57, significantly higher than the expected $1.54, indicating a 67.2% beat [2] - Book Value per Share increased to $121.13, showing a 9% year-on-year growth [2] - Market Capitalization stood at $3.88 billion [2] Company Overview - Assured Guaranty has been providing credit protection products since 2003, covering over $11 trillion in debt service payments [3] - The company guarantees scheduled payments on municipal bonds, infrastructure projects, and structured finance obligations [3] Revenue Growth Challenges - Assured Guaranty has struggled to consistently increase demand, with trailing 12-month revenue of $989 million being close to its revenue five years ago, indicating low business quality [4] - Revenue has declined by 14% annually over the last two years, suggesting suppressed demand [5]

Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. for Q3 2025 was $105 million, a decrease of 38.6% from $171 million in Q3 2024[6]. - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million, compared to $130 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline of 4.6%[6]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 was $2.18, a decrease of 31.24% from $3.17 in Q3 2024[6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for Q3 2025 was 7.4%, down from 12.1% in Q3 2024[6]. - Total capital returned to common shareholders was $134 million in Q3 2025, compared to $147 million in Q3 2024, a decline of 8.84%[6]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, net income attributable to AGL was $105 million, down 38.56% from $171 million in the prior year[15]. - Adjusted operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $124 million, a decrease of 4.62% from $130 million in the same period of 2024[19]. - Basic earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $2.20, compared to $3.23 for the same period in 2024, a decline of 31.93%[15]. - Adjusted operating income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $336 million, compared to $389 million in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 13.6%[148]. Revenue and Premiums - Gross written premiums (GWP) increased to $75 million in Q3 2025, up 22.95% from $61 million in Q3 2024[6]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenues reached $833 million, up 16.38% from $716 million in the same period of 2024[15]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, total revenues were $207 million, compared to $206 million in the previous year, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.49%[26]. - Net earned premiums for the insurance segment were $95 million, with total expenses amounting to $92 million, resulting in a net income of $105 million[26]. - Total gross written premiums (GWP) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reached $195 million, compared to $254 million in the same period of 2024[63]. Assets and Equity - The company reported total assets of $12,101 million as of September 30, 2025, an increase from $11,901 million as of December 31, 2024[17]. - As of September 30, 2025, shareholders' equity attributable to AGL increased to $5,658 million from $5,495 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 2.97%[11]. - The company’s long-term debt remained stable at $1,702 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1,699 million at the end of 2024[17]. - Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share increased to $121.13, compared to $108.80 in 2024, representing a growth of 11.5%[144]. - Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share increased to $123.10 from $114.75 year-over-year[152]. Investment Performance - The company reported a fair value gain of $17 million on CIVs for the three months ended September 30, 2025[26]. - The company recorded unrealized losses on the investment portfolio amounting to $(159) million for the three months ended September 30, 2025[25]. - The total net investment income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $94 million, compared to $82 million for the same period in 2024, representing a 14.6% increase[50]. - The total net investment income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $270 million, an increase from $247 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 9.3%[53]. - The annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields was reported at $369 million[38]. Claims and Losses - Total claims-paying resources were reported at $10,138 million, slightly down from $10,211 million as of December 31, 2024[11]. - The financial guaranty insurance segment reported a net expected loss of $186 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market[79]. - The total expected net loss to be paid as of September 30, 2025, is $104 million, with significant recoveries noted in both public and structured finance sectors[80]. - The company anticipates a total of $97,393 million in net expected loss amortization from 2025 to 2029, indicating a robust outlook for future financial stability[76]. Risk Management and Capitalization - The capital ratio was reported at 79:1, indicating strong financial stability relative to net debt service outstanding[61]. - The net exposure to qualified statutory capital ratio stood at 50:1, demonstrating effective risk management practices[61]. - Below Investment Grade (BIG) exposures totaled $11,378 million as of September 30, 2025, an increase of 11.7% compared to $10,182 million at the end of 2024[111]. - The company anticipates continued market expansion and strategic initiatives to enhance its portfolio and mitigate risks associated with below investment grade exposures[111]. Non-GAAP Measures - The Company presents both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, with non-GAAP measures providing necessary information for analysts and investors to evaluate financial results[182]. - Adjusted operating income is defined as net income attributable to AGL, adjusted for realized gains/losses, non-credit impairment-related unrealized gains/losses, and foreign exchange gains/losses[190][193]. - The Company emphasizes that non-GAAP measures should not be considered substitutes for GAAP measures due to potential lack of comparability[181].

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty Ltd. will release its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 6, 2025, after 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time [1] Financial Results Announcement - The financial results press release will be available in the Investor Information section of the Company's website [1] - The release will include the Financial Supplement for September 30, 2025 [1]