18 November 2025 | 7:02PM HKT Equity Research Futu Holdings (FUTU): First take: Beat on stronger client AUM growth and client acquisition. Paying client growth guidance in focus. Neutral FUTU report revenue/net profit of HK$ 6.4/3.2bn, or +93%/+144% yoy and +29%/+51% vs. GSe in 3Q25. Brokerage and interest income came in at HK$ 2.9/3.0bn, +17%/+38% vs. GSe, both were mainly driven by robust client AUM which came in at HK$ 1.2tn, +79%/+27% yoy/qoq and +24% vs. GSe, primarily fueled by mark-to-market gains. N ...

Summary of GF Securities Co. (1776.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: GF Securities Co. (1776.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$148.6 billion / $19.1 billion - **Industry**: China Brokers & Asset Management Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue**: Rmb 11 billion, up 46% YoY - **3Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb 5 billion, up 76% YoY - **Brokerage Commission Income**: Rmb 3 billion, up 149% YoY - **Asset Management Revenue**: Rmb 2 billion, up 17% YoY - **Investment Income**: Rmb 4.2 billion, up 53% YoY - **Cost to Income Ratio**: 45.7%, down 4 percentage points vs. guidance - **Leverage Ratio**: 6.2x, up 0.7x vs. guidance Growth Drivers - **Asset Management Growth**: Focus on ETF AUM growth trends for E Fund and GF Fund as fee rate decline nears conclusion [1][2] - **Investment Income Outlook**: Positive allocation strategy among financial assets [1][2] - **Cost Management**: Guidance on cost cuts due to lower than expected cost to income ratio [1][2] Revised Financial Estimates - **Revenue Estimates (2025-2027)**: Increased by an average of 7% for revenue and 11% for NPAT [2] - **12-Month Price Target**: Rmb 30.01 for GFS-A, HK$ 16.36 for GFS-H [2][17] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Improving brokerage fees, increasing asset management AUM, and cost savings supporting ROE [19] - **Downside Risks**: Weaker than expected China capital market, decrease in AUM and fee rates, higher cost income ratio [19] Other Important Metrics - **Net Revenue Growth**: Expected to be 27.2% in 2025 [9] - **EPS (2025)**: Rmb 1.86, up from Rmb 1.69 previously [9] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to be 3.3% for 2025 [9] Conclusion GF Securities Co. has shown strong performance in 3Q25, with significant growth in revenue and net profit driven by brokerage and investment income. The company is well-positioned for future growth, although it faces potential risks from market conditions and cost management. The revised financial estimates reflect a positive outlook, maintaining a Buy rating for GFS-A and a Neutral rating for GFS-H.

Summary of Futu Holdings (FUTU) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Futu Holdings (FUTU) - **Market Capitalization**: $23.5 billion - **Current Price**: $168.52 - **12-Month Price Target**: $137.94 - **Downside Potential**: 18.1% [1][6][17] Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2025E: HK$ 19,778.8 million (up from HK$ 17,689.6 million) - 2026E: HK$ 18,744.6 million (up from HK$ 17,792.8 million) - 2027E: HK$ 19,276.0 million [7][18] - **Net Income Estimates**: - 2025E: HK$ 9,097.9 million - 2026E: HK$ 7,879.4 million - 2027E: HK$ 7,981.3 million [7][18] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: HK$ 65.33 - 2026E: HK$ 56.58 [7][18] Growth and Performance Insights - **Client AUM Growth**: - Revised estimates for 2025E/26E client AUM growth of +5%/+6%, indicating year-over-year growth of 37%/12% [2] - **Operating Expenses**: - Operating expenses for 2025E/26E revised down by -3% on average, reflecting strong performance in Q2 [3] - **New Initiatives**: - Launch of virtual asset trading in the US, HK, and SG, with a total virtual asset balance of HK$ 4 billion and peak daily trading size of US$ 40 million in July [4] - Significant improvement in Japan market penetration with a 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in trading volume in Q2 [4] Market and Valuation Considerations - **Valuation Multiples**: - P/E ratio for 2025E: 20.1x - P/B ratio for 2025E: 4.9x [12][19] - **Risks**: - Upside risks include better-than-expected growth in paying clients and AUM, while downside risks involve weaker-than-expected growth in these areas [20][21] Conclusion - The company maintains a **Neutral** rating due to rich valuation despite positive growth indicators and strategic initiatives. The price target has been adjusted upward by 10% from the previous target of US$ 124.89 to US$ 137.94 [1][17][20]

Summary of Futu Holdings (FUTU) 4Q24 Preview Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Futu Holdings (FUTU) - **Market Cap**: $16.7 billion - **Industry**: China Brokers & Asset Management Key Financial Projections - **4Q24 Revenue Growth**: Expected to grow by 48% year-over-year (yoy) to HK$3.5 billion - **4Q24 Profit Growth**: Expected to grow by 55% yoy to HK$1.4 billion - **2024 Revenue**: Projected at HK$12.5 billion, representing a 25% yoy increase - **2024 Profit**: Projected at HK$4.9 billion, representing a 15% yoy increase - **2025 Revenue**: Expected to reach HK$15.9 billion, an 8% increase compared to consensus - **2025 Profit**: Expected to reach HK$6.9 billion, an 8% increase compared to consensus - **Target Price**: Revised to US$123.54, implying a 2% upside from the current price of US$121.09 Client and AUM Growth - **New Paying Clients in 2025**: Projected to be 361,000, a 15% yoy increase - **Assets Under Management (AUM) in 2025**: Expected to reach HK$840 billion, a 16% yoy increase - **4Q24 AUM Growth**: Anticipated to increase by 48% yoy and 4% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) Market Dynamics - **Impact of Stimulus Policies**: The market has performed strongly since the stimulus policies introduced in September 2024, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 29% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 56% - **Trading Volume**: Hong Kong stock trading volume has contributed 30% of total turnover over the three-year average, with average daily trading volume (ADTV) increasing to HK$180 billion from HK$110 billion Revenue Drivers - **Commission Income**: Expected to benefit from increased trading activity in the Hong Kong market - **Interest Income**: Minimal impact from Federal Reserve rate cuts anticipated, with margin financing and securities lending expected to grow by 44% and 31% yoy in 4Q24 and 2025, respectively Cost Management - **Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR)**: Projected to decline from 41% in 2024 to 38% in 2025, contributing to EPS growth - **Cost Control Measures**: No plans for market expansion in 2025, which will reduce market expansion expenses Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected growth in paying clients, AUM, stock market capitalization, and trading volume - **Downside Risks**: Weaker-than-expected growth in paying clients and AUM, stock market decline, and lower trading activity Conclusion - **Rating**: Neutral - **Valuation**: Target P/E maintained at 18x, reflecting limited upside due to ongoing regulatory challenges in the China onshore business This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Futu Holdings, focusing on financial projections, market dynamics, revenue drivers, cost management, and associated risks.