Core Viewpoint - Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $220.81 indicating a 48.1% increase from its current price of $149.05 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of 11 estimates ranging from a low of $190.00 to a high of $300.00, with a standard deviation of $29.67, suggesting variability in analyst opinions [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a 27.5% increase, while the highest suggests a 101.3% upside [2] - A low standard deviation indicates a higher agreement among analysts regarding price movement [9] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about FUTU's earnings prospects, with a consensus indicating better-than-previously estimated earnings [4][11] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 4.8%, with three estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [12] Zacks Rank - FUTU holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] Conclusion on Price Targets - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable measure of FUTU's potential gains, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

点击蓝字，关注我们 2 . 京东物流(02618)涨近4% 。消息面上，近日，京东物流披露2025年业绩数据，东兴证券指出，京东 物流25年营收同比增长18.8%，增速明显高于24年的9.7%，主要得益于即时配送业务快速上量。 3 . 中国玻璃(03300)跌近5% 。消息面上，3月16日晚，中国玻璃发盈警，预期截至2025年12月31日止 年度将录得人民币不超过58亿元的亏损，较2024年度亏损净额约人民币9.64亿元增加约人民币48亿 元。主要归因于受国内房地产深度调整与光伏产业增速放缓影响，国内玻璃市场需求持续走弱，行业 供需结构失衡，面临价格与成本双重挤压，导致集团国内产品毛利空间显著下降，并致使集团国内部 分玻璃生产线于去年度及随后暂停生产。 4. 爱德新能源(02623)涨5.56% 。消息面上，今年2月，爱德新能源宣布，拟斥3950万澳元对Horizon Minerals战略投资完成后，公司将合共持有目标公司约9.95%的已发行股本。 今日上午港股 1 . 黄金股今早回暖，截至发稿， 紫金黄金国际(02259)涨4.08%，灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.97%，赤峰黄金 (06693)涨3.56% ...

Macro Insights - The ongoing Middle East conflict has significantly impacted oil prices, with prices surpassing $100 per barrel, raising concerns about inflation and economic stability [2][25] - The U.S. economic indicators show a mixed picture, with a slight downgrade in GDP growth and a slowdown in private investment and consumption, while AI-related investments remain robust [2][3] - The liquidity situation is improving, with February's new social financing and RMB loans exceeding expectations, driven by fiscal efforts to boost corporate financing [4] Energy Sector - Rising energy prices are reinforcing inflation expectations, with international oil prices continuing to rise due to the Middle East conflict, affecting domestic energy and commodity prices [3][4] - The PPI decline has narrowed to 0.9%, indicating a potential turnaround in inflation trends by March or April [3] Stock Market Strategy - The A-share market is experiencing a cautious phase, with reduced risk appetite among investors due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices [5][11] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on defensive assets, particularly in the power sector and essential consumer goods, while maintaining a flexible approach to stock selection [5][11] Fixed Income Market - Recent changes in land supply policies are expected to impact the real estate sector, shifting from expansion to optimizing existing resources, which may reshape industry dynamics [14][19] - The bond market is currently characterized by volatility, with recommendations to focus on short to medium-term credit bonds while being cautious about high valuations in convertible bonds [15][19] Consumer Electronics - The 2026 AWE highlighted a shift in the home appliance industry towards AI integration, indicating a growing trend in product innovation and consumer engagement [17] - The focus on AI and robotics in consumer electronics is expected to create investment opportunities and drive valuation adjustments for leading companies in the sector [17] Private Credit Market - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. private credit market amid geopolitical tensions and inflation risks, with the market currently in a "clearing phase" [26] - The potential for systemic financial risks remains, but the baseline scenario suggests a soft landing for the U.S. economy, indicating that risks may be more localized rather than widespread [26] Transportation Sector - The ongoing Middle East tensions are likely to reshape global transportation dynamics, with increased uncertainty in key shipping routes potentially leading to a reconfiguration of shipping capacities and pricing [35] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with low exposure to geopolitical risks and high dividend yields, as well as those positioned to benefit from rising transportation costs [35]

、 本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，茶饮品牌亦有所布局；整体咖啡 行业价格竞争趋缓，阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；4 月起受去 年外卖补贴影响基数逐步提高，近期平台补贴力度逐步收窄，关注数据波动风险。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 腾讯音乐已推出"鹅票票"购票平台，成为继猫眼、大麦后的又一票务新玩家。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：宏观波动，加密市场催化有限，币价承压。本周美 CFTC 主席表示将发布预测市场明 确指导意见以防止操纵和内幕交易；美 CFTC 就预测市场相关拟议规则制定预先通知征求公众意见；美 SEC 主席 表示预计很快将推出一项针对股权证券代币化的创新豁免。本周富途控股发布 25Q4 财报，业绩 ...

、 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，茶饮品牌亦有所布局；整体咖啡 行业价格竞争趋缓，阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；4 月起受去 年外卖补贴影响基数逐步提高，近期平台补贴力度逐步收窄，关注数据波动风险。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 腾讯音乐已推出"鹅票票"购票平台，成为继猫眼、大麦后的又一票务新玩家。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：宏观波动，加密市场催化有限，币价承压。本周美 CFTC 主席表示将发布预测市场明 确指导意见以防止操纵和内幕交易；美 CFTC 就预测市场相关拟议规则制定预先通知征求公众意见；美 SEC 主席 表示预计很快将推出一项针对股权证券代币化的创新豁免。本周富途控股发布 25Q4 财报，业绩超预期，营收 64.4 亿港元，yoy+45%；净利润 33.7 亿港元，yoy+80%；Non-GAAP 净利润 34.6 亿港元，yoy+77%。 汽车服务：IAM 中，多家主机系汽服连锁蛰伏 ...

Core Insights - Futu Holdings (FUTU) reported a significant increase in net income and revenues for Q4 2025, with net income rising 79.2% year over year to HK$23.92 ($3.07) per American Depositary Share and revenues increasing 45.3% to US$827.2 million, surpassing estimates by 1.97% [1][9] Financial Performance - Brokerage commission and handling charge income increased by 34.6% year over year to $355.9 million, driven by higher trading volumes despite a slight decline in the blended commission rate [2] - Interest income rose 50.2% year over year to $390.3 million, reflecting growth in securities borrowing and lending, bank deposits, and margin financing [2] - Other income surged 78.7% year over year to US$81.0 million, fueled by growth in fund distribution and IPO subscription services [3] Client Metrics - Total funded accounts reached 3,365,414 as of December 31, 2025, marking a 39.6% year-over-year increase, with 234,000 net new funded accounts added in Q4, a 9% increase [4] - Total brokerage accounts grew by 29.8% year over year to 5,948,093, while the registered user base expanded by 16% to 29.2 million [4] Trading and Asset Growth - Total client assets increased to HK$1.23 trillion, up 65.9% year over year, despite depreciation in Hong Kong stock holdings [5] - Total trading volume reached a record HK$3.98 trillion (US$511.3 billion) in Q4 2025, a 37.8% year-over-year increase, with U.S. stock trading volume contributing HK$3.04 trillion (US$390.6 billion) [5] Margin Financing and Wealth Management - Margin financing and securities lending balance rose 33.1% year over year to HK$67.7 billion (US$8.7 billion), driven by increased U.S. stock margin trading and short-term financing demand [6] - Wealth management client assets grew 62% year over year to HK$179.6 billion (US$23.1 billion), with an expanded product offering across various markets [7] Operating Efficiency - Total costs decreased by 6.1% year over year to US$93.6 million, while gross profit increased by 56.2% to US$733.6 million, leading to an expanded gross margin of 88.7% [8] - Income from operations rose 87% year over year to $532.8 million, with an operating margin increase to 64.4% [11] Balance Sheet Overview - As of December 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were HK$10.47 billion (US$1.34 billion), with a slight decline in cash held on behalf of clients [12] - Borrowings increased modestly to HK$12.14 billion (US$1.56 billion), reflecting ongoing financing activity [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $257.00 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue reaching HKD 22.847 billion, a year-on-year growth of 68.1%, and net profit of HKD 11.338 billion, up 108.3% [6]. - The company continues to expand its global presence, particularly in markets like Hong Kong and Malaysia, with a notable increase in customer deposits and trading volumes [9][10]. - The forecast for 2026 and 2027 net profit has been adjusted upwards to HKD 13.233 billion and HKD 14.775 billion, respectively, reflecting strong user growth and revenue potential [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 22,847 million, representing a 68.11% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 11,338 million, marking a 108.30% increase [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was HKD 80.24, with a projected EPS of HKD 93.73 for 2026 [19][20]. Customer Acquisition - As of Q4 2025, the number of funded customers reached approximately 3.365 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%. The total number of brokerage accounts grew by 29.8% to 5.948 million [7]. - The company expects to add 800,000 new funded customers in 2026, driven by expansion into new markets [7]. Trading Activity - In Q4 2025, the total trading volume reached HKD 3.98 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. The trading volume for US stocks was HKD 3.04 trillion, reflecting a 17.1% quarter-on-quarter growth [8]. - The company noted that the trading activity was supported by increased interest in AI-related stocks, despite a decline in Hong Kong stock trading volumes [8]. Global Expansion - The company has solidified its leading position in the Hong Kong market and significantly increased its market share in Malaysia. It has also launched new products tailored to local markets [9]. - In Japan, the number of customers and assets has tripled, with the MooMoo app achieving over 2 million downloads [9]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price has been revised to $257 based on a DCF valuation method, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and market expansion [10][11]. - The projected net profit for 2026 and 2027 has been increased to HKD 13.233 billion and HKD 14.775 billion, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [10].

证券研究报告 富途控股 (FUTU US) 全球化战略持续推进 SAC No. S0570524070010 chenyuxuan020827@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 3 月 11 日) | 152.64 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 21,252 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (美元百万) | 301.93 | | 52 周价格范围 (美元) | 70.60-202.53 | 股价走势图 (31) (2) 28 57 86 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Mar-26 (%) 富途控股 标普500 资料来源：S&P 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (港币) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万) | 22,847 | 26,113 | 29,287 | 32,812 | | +/-% | 68.11 | 14.29 | 12.15 | 12.04 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 11,33 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 22.847 billion HKD for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.338 billion HKD, up 108% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a total revenue of 6.4 billion HKD, which is a 45% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.4 billion HKD, reflecting an 80% year-on-year growth [1] - The company is expanding its global strategy, which is driving significant growth in its performance [1] Revenue Summary - In 2025, the company's brokerage commission revenue increased by 74.9% to 10.6 billion HKD, driven by a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, active US stock trading, and expansion into emerging markets [9] - Interest income rose by 56.6% to 10.4 billion HKD, attributed to the growth in customer margin and financing business [9] - Other operating income surged by 108.6% to 1.8 billion HKD, mainly due to increased demand for wealth management services [9] Cost Summary - Research and development expenses increased by 27.8% to 1.9 billion HKD, primarily to support internationalization and cryptocurrency business [9] - Sales expenses rose by 40.5% to 2 billion HKD, reflecting increased investment in global brand promotion and customer acquisition [9] - Management expenses grew by 19.4% to 1.9 billion HKD, driven by personnel increases due to global business expansion [9] Global Business Expansion - The company saw a 30% year-on-year increase in registered users, reaching 29.18 million, and a 40% increase in asset-holding clients, totaling 3.37 million [9] - The total trading volume increased by 89.4% year-on-year to 14.7 trillion HKD, driven by international strategy and new business initiatives [9] - The company is launching Moomoo Crypto services to provide over 30 cryptocurrency trading options for US users [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2026-2028 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 16.78 billion HKD, 25.08 billion HKD, and 34.18 billion HKD respectively [9] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 10, 7, and 5 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9] - The company is expected to continue expanding its overseas market and accelerating user growth, indicating significant long-term growth potential [9]

13 March 2026 | 12:28AM HKT Equity Research Futu Holdings (FUTU) Earnings review: Revising 2026E estimates to reflect recent market volatility; valuation remains attractive, maintain Buy | FUTU | | --- | | 12m Price Target: $205.00 | | Price: $152.64 | | Upside: 34.3% | FUTU's 4Q25 revenue/net profit were HK$ 6.3/3.4bn, +40%/+80% yoy, in line/+22% vs. GSe. FUTU updated its 2026 new paying client growth guidance to 800k, which is consistent with our forecast. However, based on FUTU's disclosed figures, both ...