新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4984 期 2026 年 3 月 20 日 星期五 研究观点 【公司研究】 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 伟仕佳杰 | 856 | 买入 买入 14.80 | 14.80 | 0% | 0.940 | 0.830 | 13% | 1.090 | 0.980 | 11% | | 贝壳 | 2423 | 买入 买入 60.00 | 60.00 | 0% | 1.032 | 1.243 | -17% | 1.654 | 1.854 | -11% | | 富途控股（美元） | FUTU | 买入 买入 173.60 | 220.00 | -21% | 80.240 | ...

On February 17, 2026, HHLR Advisors reported selling 1,607,930 shares of Futu Holdings (NASDAQ:FUTU), an estimated $276.00 million transaction based on quarterly average pricing. What happened According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing dated February 17, 2026, HHLR Advisors sold 1,607,930 shares of Futu Holdings, with the estimated transaction value calculated at $276.00 million based on the average closing price during the quarter. The quarter-end value of the stake decreased by $295 ...

The online brokerage gained significant traction in its new markets in the fourth quarter, just three years after hitting a regulatory brick wall in its original home China marketimage credit: Bamboo WorksKey Takeaways:Online brokerage Futu's revenue jumped 45% year-on-year, and its net profit surged 80% in the fourth quarter of 2025The company's overseas moomoo brand accounts for 55% of total funded accounts, with Malaysia becoming a major growth driver just three years after Futu entered the marketThe ban ...

Core Viewpoint - Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $220.81 indicating a 48.1% increase from its current price of $149.05 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of 11 estimates ranging from a low of $190.00 to a high of $300.00, with a standard deviation of $29.67, suggesting variability in analyst opinions [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a 27.5% increase, while the highest suggests a 101.3% upside [2] - A low standard deviation indicates a higher agreement among analysts regarding price movement [9] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about FUTU's earnings prospects, with a consensus indicating better-than-previously estimated earnings [4][11] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 4.8%, with three estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [12] Zacks Rank - FUTU holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] Conclusion on Price Targets - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable measure of FUTU's potential gains, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

Group 1: Gold Stocks - Gold stocks showed recovery, with Zijin Gold International rising by 4.08%, Lingbao Gold by 2.97%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold by 3.56% as spot gold prices rose above $5020 per ounce [1] Group 2: JD Logistics - JD Logistics saw a nearly 4% increase, with projected revenue growth of 18.8% for 2025, significantly higher than the 9.7% growth in 2024, driven by rapid growth in instant delivery services [2] Group 3: China Glass - China Glass experienced a nearly 5% decline after issuing a profit warning, expecting a loss of up to 5.8 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from the 964 million yuan loss in 2024, attributed to weak domestic demand in the glass market [2] Group 4: Aide New Energy - Aide New Energy's stock rose by 5.56% following the announcement of a strategic investment of 39.5 million AUD in Horizon Minerals, increasing its stake to approximately 9.95% [2] Group 5: Zhaoyan New Drug - Zhaoyan New Drug's stock fell by 6.47% after shareholders announced plans for a significant reduction in A-share holdings [3] Group 6: Gaming Stocks - Gaming stocks saw a general increase, with notable gains from companies like Bilibili and NetEase, following reports of reduced commission rates by Apple and Google for app stores [3] Group 7: Automotive Stocks - Automotive stocks continued their upward trend, with Li Auto rising by 3.15% and Geely by 5.11%, supported by the recent release of new vehicle models by various manufacturers [4] Group 8: Weigong Holdings - Weigong Holdings' stock plummeted by 18.46% after announcing plans for privatization at a cash price of 0.28 HKD per share, representing a 13.8% discount from the last trading price [5] Group 9: Chinese Securities Firms - Chinese securities stocks collectively rose, with CITIC Securities increasing by 7.03% and GF Securities by 5.21%, reflecting positive market sentiment [5] Group 10: AI and Technology Stocks - AI-related stocks saw gains, with OpenRouter reporting that China's AI model usage surpassed that of the U.S. for two consecutive weeks [5] Group 11: U.S. Market Performance - Futu Holdings reported a 45.3% year-on-year revenue increase for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching 6.438 billion HKD (approximately 827 million USD) [6] - Semiconductor stocks rose, with companies like Marvell Technology and AMD seeing increases, amid expectations of a new price hike in the semiconductor industry [6] - NIO's stock rose by 2.9% after reporting a 46.9% increase in vehicle deliveries for 2025, with total revenue growth of 33.1% [8]

Macro Insights - The ongoing Middle East conflict has significantly impacted oil prices, with prices surpassing $100 per barrel, raising concerns about inflation and economic stability [2][25] - The U.S. economic indicators show a mixed picture, with a slight downgrade in GDP growth and a slowdown in private investment and consumption, while AI-related investments remain robust [2][3] - The liquidity situation is improving, with February's new social financing and RMB loans exceeding expectations, driven by fiscal efforts to boost corporate financing [4] Energy Sector - Rising energy prices are reinforcing inflation expectations, with international oil prices continuing to rise due to the Middle East conflict, affecting domestic energy and commodity prices [3][4] - The PPI decline has narrowed to 0.9%, indicating a potential turnaround in inflation trends by March or April [3] Stock Market Strategy - The A-share market is experiencing a cautious phase, with reduced risk appetite among investors due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices [5][11] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on defensive assets, particularly in the power sector and essential consumer goods, while maintaining a flexible approach to stock selection [5][11] Fixed Income Market - Recent changes in land supply policies are expected to impact the real estate sector, shifting from expansion to optimizing existing resources, which may reshape industry dynamics [14][19] - The bond market is currently characterized by volatility, with recommendations to focus on short to medium-term credit bonds while being cautious about high valuations in convertible bonds [15][19] Consumer Electronics - The 2026 AWE highlighted a shift in the home appliance industry towards AI integration, indicating a growing trend in product innovation and consumer engagement [17] - The focus on AI and robotics in consumer electronics is expected to create investment opportunities and drive valuation adjustments for leading companies in the sector [17] Private Credit Market - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. private credit market amid geopolitical tensions and inflation risks, with the market currently in a "clearing phase" [26] - The potential for systemic financial risks remains, but the baseline scenario suggests a soft landing for the U.S. economy, indicating that risks may be more localized rather than widespread [26] Transportation Sector - The ongoing Middle East tensions are likely to reshape global transportation dynamics, with increased uncertainty in key shipping routes potentially leading to a reconfiguration of shipping capacities and pricing [35] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with low exposure to geopolitical risks and high dividend yields, as well as those positioned to benefit from rising transportation costs [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coffee industry, indicating sustained high demand and a favorable environment for brand expansion, while the tea beverage sector shows signs of pressure due to increased competition and reduced subsidies [4]. Core Insights - The coffee industry is experiencing a beta dividend with brands actively opening new stores, and a slowdown in price competition is expected to improve costs due to declining Arabica coffee futures [4]. - The e-commerce sector continues to face challenges, reflecting a subdued domestic consumption environment [4]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with Tencent Music launching a new ticketing platform [4]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is under pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations, with limited catalysts in the cryptocurrency market [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing increased competition among aftermarket chains, with OEMs struggling with inventory pressures [4]. - The report suggests monitoring the Robotaxi sector and internet healthcare developments, particularly in regions like Shenzhen and Wuxi [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee and tea beverage sectors are analyzed, with coffee maintaining high growth and tea facing challenges due to subsidy reductions [4][9]. - E-commerce performance is weak, with the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index showing a decline of 0.32% [11]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - Streaming platforms are under scrutiny, with Tencent Music performing well while others like Spotify and iQIYI face declines [15]. - The virtual asset market shows a slight decrease in total market capitalization, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices experiencing minor fluctuations [19]. - The automotive service sector is highlighted for its competitive landscape, with several chains expanding their store openings [27]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The report notes Tencent's advancements in AI technology, including the launch of its AI assistant WorkBuddy, which aims to enhance operational efficiency [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coffee industry, indicating sustained high demand and a favorable environment for growth [4]. Core Insights - The coffee sector is experiencing a beta dividend, with brands actively opening new stores and a slowdown in price competition, particularly with the decline in Arabica coffee futures prices, which is expected to improve costs [4]. - The tea beverage segment is facing some pressure due to increased competition and reduced platform subsidies affecting sales data [4]. - The e-commerce sector continues to be under pressure, reflecting a lackluster performance in the domestic consumption environment [4]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with Tencent Music launching a new ticketing platform, "Goose Ticket" [4]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing macroeconomic volatility, with limited catalysts in the cryptocurrency market, as indicated by the recent performance of major cryptocurrencies [4][19]. - The automotive service sector is seeing a focus on post-market services, with several major automotive service chains expanding their store openings and promotional policies [4]. - The report suggests monitoring the Robotaxi sector, particularly with Didi's new autonomous driving Robotaxi receiving licenses in major cities [4]. - The AI and cloud sectors are viewed positively, with Tencent's deployment of AI technologies indicating a shift towards execution-based applications [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index showed a slight increase of +0.09%, while the Hang Seng index increased by +1.22 percentage points [9]. - Notable stock performances include Shanghai Aunt (+3.23%), Bawang Tea (+3.14%), and Luckin Coffee (-0.86%) [9][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index decreased by -0.31%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by +0.82 percentage points [15]. - Key stock performances include Tencent Music (+4.19%) and Spotify Technology (-8.69%) [15][16]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - As of March 13, the global cryptocurrency market cap was $248.01 billion, down 0.08% [19]. - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices reached $70,965 and $2,093.01, reflecting increases of 4.1% and 5.7% respectively [19]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index decreased by -1.02%, with notable stock performances including Advance Auto Parts (+2.78%) and O'Reilly Automotive (-3.23%) [28]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by -0.32%, with key stock performances including JD Health (+1.24%) and Didi Global (-6.41%) [35]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index decreased by -3.89%, with notable stock performances including Tencent (+6.49%) and Meta (-4.83%) [40].

Core Insights - Futu Holdings (FUTU) reported a significant increase in net income and revenues for Q4 2025, with net income rising 79.2% year over year to HK$23.92 ($3.07) per American Depositary Share and revenues increasing 45.3% to US$827.2 million, surpassing estimates by 1.97% [1][9] Financial Performance - Brokerage commission and handling charge income increased by 34.6% year over year to $355.9 million, driven by higher trading volumes despite a slight decline in the blended commission rate [2] - Interest income rose 50.2% year over year to $390.3 million, reflecting growth in securities borrowing and lending, bank deposits, and margin financing [2] - Other income surged 78.7% year over year to US$81.0 million, fueled by growth in fund distribution and IPO subscription services [3] Client Metrics - Total funded accounts reached 3,365,414 as of December 31, 2025, marking a 39.6% year-over-year increase, with 234,000 net new funded accounts added in Q4, a 9% increase [4] - Total brokerage accounts grew by 29.8% year over year to 5,948,093, while the registered user base expanded by 16% to 29.2 million [4] Trading and Asset Growth - Total client assets increased to HK$1.23 trillion, up 65.9% year over year, despite depreciation in Hong Kong stock holdings [5] - Total trading volume reached a record HK$3.98 trillion (US$511.3 billion) in Q4 2025, a 37.8% year-over-year increase, with U.S. stock trading volume contributing HK$3.04 trillion (US$390.6 billion) [5] Margin Financing and Wealth Management - Margin financing and securities lending balance rose 33.1% year over year to HK$67.7 billion (US$8.7 billion), driven by increased U.S. stock margin trading and short-term financing demand [6] - Wealth management client assets grew 62% year over year to HK$179.6 billion (US$23.1 billion), with an expanded product offering across various markets [7] Operating Efficiency - Total costs decreased by 6.1% year over year to US$93.6 million, while gross profit increased by 56.2% to US$733.6 million, leading to an expanded gross margin of 88.7% [8] - Income from operations rose 87% year over year to $532.8 million, with an operating margin increase to 64.4% [11] Balance Sheet Overview - As of December 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were HK$10.47 billion (US$1.34 billion), with a slight decline in cash held on behalf of clients [12] - Borrowings increased modestly to HK$12.14 billion (US$1.56 billion), reflecting ongoing financing activity [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $257.00 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue reaching HKD 22.847 billion, a year-on-year growth of 68.1%, and net profit of HKD 11.338 billion, up 108.3% [6]. - The company continues to expand its global presence, particularly in markets like Hong Kong and Malaysia, with a notable increase in customer deposits and trading volumes [9][10]. - The forecast for 2026 and 2027 net profit has been adjusted upwards to HKD 13.233 billion and HKD 14.775 billion, respectively, reflecting strong user growth and revenue potential [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 22,847 million, representing a 68.11% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 11,338 million, marking a 108.30% increase [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was HKD 80.24, with a projected EPS of HKD 93.73 for 2026 [19][20]. Customer Acquisition - As of Q4 2025, the number of funded customers reached approximately 3.365 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%. The total number of brokerage accounts grew by 29.8% to 5.948 million [7]. - The company expects to add 800,000 new funded customers in 2026, driven by expansion into new markets [7]. Trading Activity - In Q4 2025, the total trading volume reached HKD 3.98 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. The trading volume for US stocks was HKD 3.04 trillion, reflecting a 17.1% quarter-on-quarter growth [8]. - The company noted that the trading activity was supported by increased interest in AI-related stocks, despite a decline in Hong Kong stock trading volumes [8]. Global Expansion - The company has solidified its leading position in the Hong Kong market and significantly increased its market share in Malaysia. It has also launched new products tailored to local markets [9]. - In Japan, the number of customers and assets has tripled, with the MooMoo app achieving over 2 million downloads [9]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price has been revised to $257 based on a DCF valuation method, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and market expansion [10][11]. - The projected net profit for 2026 and 2027 has been increased to HKD 13.233 billion and HKD 14.775 billion, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [10].