Summary of AmoyDx Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: AmoyDx (300685.SZ) - **Industry**: Cancer companion diagnostics (CDx) in China Key Financial Results - **1H25 Revenue**: Rmb579 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, which missed the expected Rmb643 million [1] - **Net Profit**: Rmb189 million, a 31% year-over-year increase, exceeding the expected Rmb179 million [1] - **Impact of VAT**: The increase in value-added tax (VAT) negatively impacted domestic revenue, estimated to have an 8% effect on pricing [1] - **Sales Volume Growth**: The 7% growth in domestic revenue implies a 15% increase in sales volume [1] Revenue Breakdown - **Domestic Revenue**: Expected to grow by 29% year-over-year in 2H25 due to a low base and recent product approvals [7] - **Overseas Revenue**: Anticipated to improve from 4% growth in 1H25 to 12% in 2H25, with full-year growth projected at 9% [7] Future Projections - **Revised Revenue Estimates**: - 2025E: Rmb1,283 million (down 4.1% from previous estimates) - 2026E: Rmb1,524 million (down 5.9%) - 2027E: Rmb1,797 million (down 8.0%) [8] - **Net Profit Estimates**: Slight adjustments with 2025E at Rmb355 million, 2026E at Rmb421 million, and 2027E at Rmb481 million [8] Investment Thesis - **Market Position**: AmoyDx is a leading player in the China CDx industry, with expectations for the penetration rate of tumor companion diagnostics to rise from 13% in 2020 to 45% by 2031E [9] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected future revenue growth rate above 20% per annum over the next ten years [9] - **Key Catalysts**: - Rapid ramp-up of PD-L1 CDx product - More product launches overseas [9] - **Key Risks**: - Intensified industry competition - Regulatory changes in China and overseas - Implementation of value-based pricing (VBP) [9][10] Price Target and Valuation - **12-Month Price Target**: Rmb33, down from Rmb34, with a potential upside of 34.4% from the current price of Rmb24.55 [12] - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on a two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation with a discount rate of 10.5% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [10] Additional Insights - **Cost Control**: The earnings beat was attributed to effective cost control measures, including reductions in selling and R&D expense ratios compared to 1H24 [1] - **Market Dynamics**: The company is reorganizing its international sales team and focusing on the Southeast Asia market [1] This summary encapsulates the critical financial results, future projections, investment thesis, and valuation insights for AmoyDx, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's current standing and future outlook in the cancer diagnostics industry.