Core Insights - Sasol is making solid progress on its Capital Market's Day plans to strengthen its foundation business amid macroeconomic volatility, global tariffs, and geopolitical tensions [2] - The company reported a fatality at the Thubelisha Colliery in September 2025, despite achieving a fatality-free financial year in mining [2] Business Performance - In Southern Africa, the ramp-up of the destoning plant is on track, resulting in average sinks for Q1 FY26 reducing below 14%, which has enabled increased coal production [3] - Both Natref and Sasolburg showed improved operational performance, with higher sales volumes for Fuels and growth in the higher-margin mobility channel [3] - Chemicals Africa sales volumes remained consistent with the prior year, but revenue decreased due to lower sales prices amid market softness [3] - International Chemicals revenue increased in Q1 FY26 compared to the previous quarter, driven by margin optimization initiatives and higher sales volumes in the US [3] - Revenue and adjusted EBITDA were significantly higher compared to Q1 FY25, reflecting improved unit margins and operational excellence initiatives [3] Business Updates - The second of three new low-carbon boilers at Natref was successfully commissioned, enhancing steam reliability and supporting decarbonization objectives [4] - Sasol is taking measures to ensure operational continuity at the Natref refinery following the business rescue filing by Prax South Africa [5] - The mothballing of certain plants is progressing as planned, with clean-up activities completed for specific plants in Germany and the US [5] Outlook - Performance across all business segments is within market guidance, with good progress towards FY26 financial targets [6] - The Southern Africa value chain breakeven oil price for Q1 FY26 is in line with market guidance of US$55 - 60 per barrel, supported by higher production volumes [6] - International Chemicals is on track to meet the adjusted EBITDA target of US$450 - 550 million [6] Challenges - Despite progress, Sasol faces macroeconomic headwinds, including recent tariff changes impacting financial performance [7] - The company is actively assessing potential impacts on operations, supply chain, and pricing strategies due to global market adjustments [7]

Core Insights - Dow Inc. has experienced a significant decline in stock value, losing over 56% in the past year due to high energy costs, slowing demand, and broader macroeconomic challenges [2] Company Overview - Dow Inc. is one of the world's largest chemical producers, indicating its substantial role in the chemical industry [2] - The company operates in a highly cyclical market, which can lead to volatility in its financial performance [2] Market Conditions - High energy costs and slowing demand are key factors negatively impacting Dow's financial results [2] - Broader macroeconomic headwinds are also contributing to the challenges faced by the company [2] Investment Analysis - The investing group associated with the article focuses on identifying investment opportunities within the aerospace, defense, and airline sectors, suggesting a potential area for growth despite challenges in the chemical industry [2]

If you want full access to all our reports, data and investing ideas, join The Aerospace Forum , the #1 aerospace, defense and airline investment research service on Seeking Alpha, with access to evoX Data Analytics, our in-house developed data analytics platform.Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW ) stock has been crushed, losing more than 56% in the past year as high energy costs, slowing demand, and broader macroeconomic headwinds weighed on results. As one of the world’s largest chemical producers, Dow is highly cyclic ...

Core Thesis - LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is viewed positively due to its low-cost operations, strong dividend yield, and potential for earnings recovery, despite current market pricing reflecting prolonged depressed earnings [2][5]. Financial Performance - As of September 3rd, LYB's share price was $54.19, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 115.30 and 11.40, respectively [1]. - The company generates approximately 40% of its revenue from Olefins & Polyolefins (O&P) in the Americas, benefiting from low-cost ethane sourced from shale gas [3]. - The valuation metrics indicate LYB is trading at 4.5x EV/EBITDA and 0.4x sales, suggesting significant upside potential [5]. Market Position and Strategy - LYB is one of the top three global producers of polyethylene and polypropylene, leveraging its cost advantages in North America [2]. - The company has maintained polyolefins utilization at around 80% to preserve margins amid global polyethylene oversupply [4]. - A potential sale of European assets could unlock $1 billion for share buybacks, enhancing shareholder value [5]. Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that spreads and utilization rates will revert to the mean, indicating a recovery in earnings by 2026-27 [4]. - In a bullish scenario, shares could reach $117 (+150% with dividends), while the base case suggests a price of $84 (+83%) [5]. - Even in a bear case, the downside is limited to $39 if dividends are maintained, making it an attractive accumulation opportunity [5].

Core Insights - Westlake Chemical Partners reported a strong sequential rebound in key operating and cash metrics for Q2 2025, following a challenging prior quarter due to the Petro 1 turnaround [1][5] - Despite the recovery, the company fell short of market expectations for earnings per limited partner unit and revenue [1][6] - The partnership's reliance on a fixed-margin, take-or-pay contract with Westlake Corporation provides stability but also exposes it to volume risks [4][9] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 earnings per limited partner unit (GAAP) were $0.41, below the $0.47 analyst estimate, while revenue (GAAP) was $297.1 million, missing the $301.0 million consensus [1][2] - MLP distributable cash flow was $15.0 million, down 12.3% year-over-year from $17.1 million in Q2 2024, attributed to higher maintenance capital expenses [2][5] - Cash flows from operating activities plummeted 92.5% year-over-year, from $121.9 million in Q2 2024 to $9.1 million in Q2 2025, primarily due to the Petro 1 turnaround [2][7] Operational Context - The partnership's ethylene production facilities have a nameplate capacity of approximately 3.7 billion pounds per year, with 95% of output sold to Westlake under a long-term agreement [3][9] - The second quarter saw a recovery in net income attributable to the partnership, increasing from $4.9 million in Q1 2025 to $14.6 million in Q2 2025 [5] - Third-party ethylene sales decreased significantly to $28.0 million from $44.6 million in the prior-year period, reflecting the partnership's dependence on Westlake [6][10] Future Outlook - Management anticipates a solid improvement in distributable cash flow and distribution coverage ratio in the second half of 2025 as operations normalize [11] - No further maintenance shutdowns are scheduled for the next eighteen months, with no additional planned turnarounds in 2025 or 2026 [11][12] - The quarterly distribution remains unchanged at $0.4714 per unit, marking the forty-fourth consecutive quarter since the 2014 IPO [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates FMC will report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - FMC is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.59 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.4% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $965.4 million, down 7% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.32% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - A positive Earnings ESP of +2.89% suggests analysts have recently become more optimistic about FMC's earnings prospects [11]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, FMC exceeded expectations by delivering earnings of $0.18 per share against an expected $0.08, resulting in a surprise of +125.00% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, FMC has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Investment Considerations - While FMC shows potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock performance post-earnings release [14][16]. - Monitoring the Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank can provide insights into potential investment opportunities [15].