2025 was a year to forget for chemical giants Dow (NYSE: DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE: LYB). Both stocks plummeted to multiyear lows. Coincidentally, they both fell by exactly 41.7%. 2026 is already looking a lot better for materials sector investors. Materials and energy are the best-performing stock market sectors in 2026. And Dow and LyondellBasell are both up over 15% year to date at the time of this writing. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they belie ...

Peter Vanacker: Thank you, Dave, and welcome to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our first quarter results. These are challenging and volatile times, but I am proud that our team continues to navigate extremely well. Let's begin with Slide 3, where we highlight continued leadership in safety performance, LYB. Our operational success starts with our core focus on safety. Our goal zero commitment is to operate with zero incidents through ownership, excellence and teamwork. This is ...

谨慎派则聚焦结构性隐患与衍生风险。美国近70%电网设施服役超25年，燃气电厂设备超期服役问题突出，此次风暴再次暴露基建老化短板，未来极端天气 下能源危机或频繁上演。同时，能源价格暴涨可能推升核心通胀，制约美联储降息空间，叠加此前经济对AI的单一依赖，多重压力下衰退风险或边际上 升。此外，公用事业公司的成本缓冲效应有限，终端用户账单上涨将逐步显现，抑制居民消费活力。 价格暴涨快速向全产业链传导，经济损失持续扩大。交通领域首当其冲，单周日航班取消量超1.1万架次，创疫情以来新高，全美累计取消航班超1.6万架 次，UPS等物流巨头预警服务中断。制造业受双重挤压，墨西哥湾沿岸化工企业因低温关停部分装置，天然气作为原料和燃料的双重属性，推高乙烯、聚丙 烯等产品成本，下游包装、家电行业承压。AccuWeather预估，此次风暴造成的经济损失将达1050亿至1150亿美元，堪比重大自然灾害。 宏观经济层面，寒潮正削弱美国一季度增长动能。摩根士丹利测算，风暴可能拖累一季度GDP增速0.5至1.5个百分点，若按上限计算，或将抹去该季度大部 分预期增幅。更复杂的是，能源价格上涨可能干扰通胀数据与政策判断，牛津经济研究院指出，极端 ...

Core Viewpoint - Danzhou is advancing the integration reform of Danyang, aiming to establish Hainan as a high-quality development "third pole" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, leading to significant economic and social transformations and achievements [4][7]. Economic Growth - Danzhou's GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.8%, surpassing 100 billion yuan and ranking second in the province [4] - The GDP of the Yangpu area is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 12.6%, enhancing its role as an economic driver [4] - Service trade, goods trade, bulk commodity trade, and actual foreign investment are expected to grow at average annual rates of 50.2%, 29.7%, 62.6%, and 69%, respectively [4] Policy Implementation - Danzhou has implemented a unique import and export management system, with "one line" open and "two lines" controlled, leading to effective policy outcomes [4] - Tax exemptions from processing and value-added activities account for over 80% of the province's total, while three "zero tariff" lists have reduced tax payments by over 70% [4] Industrial Development - The total industrial output value has exceeded 150 billion yuan, growing by 1.3 times, with a focus on high-end, green, and intelligent development [5] - The petrochemical new materials sector has become the province's first trillion-level advanced manufacturing industry cluster, doubling its output value [5] - The renewable energy capacity has increased by 6.3 times, and the digital economy ecosystem is emerging with the approval of the first "digital processing trade zone" in the country [5] Regional Coordination - Danzhou is promoting coordinated development among the Yangpu Economic Development Zone, Huanwan New City, and Danzhou Industrial Park [5] - The Yangpu Economic Development Zone has achieved a revenue of over 1.26 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth of 45.8% [5] - The Danzhou Industrial Park has attracted over 100 enterprises, with revenue and industrial output value growing at average annual rates of 64.7% and 18.2%, respectively [5] Environmental and Social Improvements - The ecological governance effectiveness has improved, with energy consumption per unit of GDP decreasing by 18.5% [6] - Public spending on people's livelihoods accounts for over 70% of the general public budget, increasing by 6.7% compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period [6] - The number of tourists received has reached nearly 50 million, with an annual growth rate of 29% [7] Future Outlook - During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Danzhou aims for an average GDP growth rate of 6.5%, with significant advancements in new industrialization, information technology, urbanization, and agricultural modernization [7] - The industrial structure is expected to evolve towards a ratio of 15.3:34.2:50.5 among the three industries [7] Innovation and Openness - The reform and innovation results of the free trade port are accelerating, enhancing the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [8] - The high-level opening-up pattern is deepening, with increased international cooperation and interaction with major economic regions [9] Governance and Quality of Life - Governance capabilities are improving, with a focus on modern, refined, and intelligent governance [13] - Social security fairness and public service accessibility are being enhanced, contributing to increased public satisfaction and quality of life [12]

Core Insights - Petrobras and Braskem have signed long-term feedstock supply contracts valued at $17.8 billion, marking a significant milestone in the Brazilian petrochemical industry [1][2][18] Group 1: Overview of the Agreements - The agreements consist of two major contracts: one for petrochemical naphtha worth $11.3 billion and another for natural gas liquids (NGLs) worth $5.6 billion, set to commence in January 2026 [3][4] - The naphtha supply deal will provide 4.116 million tons in 2026, increasing to 4.316 million tons by 2030, ensuring a stable supply for Braskem's operations [5][6] Group 2: Strategic Shift and Expansion - Braskem is transitioning from naphtha to more competitive NGLs like ethane, aiming to enhance Brazil's position in global petrochemical production [2][11] - The $5.6 billion contract for ethane, propane, and hydrogen is crucial for expanding Braskem's Duque de Caxias facilities, expected to run for 11 years starting in 2026 [6][7] Group 3: Long-term Supply Commitments - From 2026 to 2028, Petrobras will supply 580,000 tons of ethylene equivalent annually, increasing to 725,000 tons per year starting in 2029, supporting Braskem's expansion plans [10][11] - Additional propylene supply agreements valued at approximately $940 million will further support Braskem's diverse production lines, ensuring access to necessary feedstocks [14][15] Group 4: Strategic Influence and Future Outlook - Petrobras is increasing its influence over Braskem as Novonor plans to divest its stake, indicating a trend of state-controlled entities shaping Brazil's petrochemical sector [12][13] - The collaboration between Petrobras and Braskem is expected to unlock nearly $800 million in investments, driving growth and modernization in the Brazilian petrochemical industry [7][18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Braskem recorded consolidated recurring EBITDA of $150 million, which is 104% higher than in Q2 2025 [5][13] - The company's cash position at the end of the quarter was approximately $1.3 billion, sufficient to cover debt maturities over the next 27 months [6][18] - Corporate leverage stood at approximately 14.7 times at the end of Q3 2025, mainly due to lower EBITDA over the last 12 months [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, recurring EBITDA was $205 million, a 35% increase from the previous quarter, driven by prioritization of higher value-added sales [7][8] - The utilization rate of the Green Ethylene Plant was 40%, down 31 percentage points from the previous quarter due to lower demand from Asian markets [8] - The Mexico segment had a recurring EBITDA of negative $37 million, impacted by higher idle expenses and lower provisions for fine receivable [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Utilization rates at petrochemical plants in Brazil were lower due to maintenance stoppages and production optimization strategies [4][6] - Resin sales in the Brazilian market decreased due to higher polyethylene imports and lower polypropylene demand [7] - The global macroeconomic scenario was marked by moderate growth, accelerated inflation, and high interest rates, impacting industrial activity in resin processing [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Braskem's resilience program aims to implement tactical initiatives to generate sustainable value, focusing on maximizing EBITDA and mitigating cash consumption [19][20] - The company is pursuing a transformation program structured around optimizing naphtha base, increasing gas base flexibility, and migrating to renewable products [19][24] - The Transform Rio project was approved to expand the Rio de Janeiro plant's capacity, expected to add 220,000 tons per year of ethylene capacity [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that the petrochemical industry is facing a prolonged downturn, with expectations of a challenging environment until at least 2030 [32][38] - The company anticipates a significant gap between supply and demand in the petrochemical industry, driven by expansions in China and the Middle East [38] - Despite negative outlooks, Braskem continues to advance its resilience project to enhance global competitiveness [39] Other Important Information - Braskem signed an agreement related to the Alagoas geological event, providing for a total payment of BRL 1.2 billion, with around BRL 139 million already paid [15][53] - The company has established 79 action plans globally, with potential for capturing around $400 million in EBITDA and $500 million in cash generation for 2025 [20][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: When will a decision on the restructuring be made? - The company is currently completing a diagnostic with external advisors, and no options are confirmed or discarded at this moment [44] Question: What was the main economic driver for weak resin volumes this quarter? - The demand for resins is strongly associated with Brazilian GDP, and a drop of about 4% is expected for the next months, with a recovery of about 3% for the following year [45] Question: What is the timeline and expected impact of the Transform Rio project? - The project will begin its engineering phase now and is expected to be completed by the end of 2028, potentially adding just under $200 million per year to EBITDA [47][48] Question: What is the status of the PRESIC bill? - The bill has been approved by the Chamber of Deputies and is awaiting urgent evaluation in the Senate, with hopes for approval by the end of 2025 [51] Question: Can you provide details about the Alagoas agreement? - The agreement involves a total payment of BRL 1.2 billion over a 10-year period, with initial installments respecting the company's projected financial condition [53]

Core Insights - LyondellBasell Industries N.V. reported strong third-quarter results, achieving a cash conversion rate of 135% and is on track to meet its $600 million cash improvement target by year-end [1][22]. - The company anticipates an increase in cash flow of at least $1.1 billion by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing operational improvements and strategic initiatives [1][20]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share for the third quarter were $1.01, with EBITDA reported at $835 million and cash from operating activities at $983 million [5][22]. - The company returned $443 million to shareholders through dividends during the quarter [5][22]. - Year-to-date cash generation improved significantly, with a total of $2.7 billion generated from operating activities over the past year [22]. Market Trends - Polyethylene (PE) demand is showing signs of recovery, with North American demand up 2.5% year-to-date compared to 2024, and European volumes up approximately 3% year-on-year [6][10]. - The global polyethylene market has consistently grown at a rate of over 3% for the past 35 years, driven by factors such as population growth and urbanization [9][10]. - Emerging markets, particularly in India and Africa, present significant long-term growth opportunities for polyethylene consumption [11]. Supply Dynamics - The global ethylene supply landscape is undergoing significant changes, with over 21 million tons of ethylene capacity expected to be closed or idled by 2028, representing about 10% of global supply [12][14]. - Capacity rationalization is particularly pronounced in Asia, with South Korea and Japan announcing substantial closures [12][13]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from these supply-side changes, focusing on cost-advantaged regions and enhancing operational efficiency [14]. Segment Performance - The Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment reported EBITDA of $428 million, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, supported by improved demand and operational efficiency [26]. - The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment achieved EBITDA of $47 million, demonstrating resilience despite challenges in the automotive market [37]. - The Intermediates and Derivatives segment saw a sequential increase in EBITDA to $33 million, driven by improved margins in oxyfuels [33]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to a disciplined capital allocation strategy, reducing 2026 capital expenditures to $1.2 billion while focusing on safe and reliable operations [18][19]. - Progress on the cash improvement plan is on track, with $150 million in fixed cost reductions achieved year-to-date [20][21]. - The construction of the Moertek One chemical recycling facility in Germany is ongoing, with major equipment deliveries underway [31].

Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of $890 million, but a net income excluding identified items of $330 million[9] - Cash from operating activities was $983 million, with dividends of $443 million[9] - Non-cash asset write-downs totaled approximately $1.2 billion[10] - The company returned $443 million in dividends during 3Q25[26] Market Trends and Outlook - Mature markets are showing signs of recovery, with polyethylene demand in Europe up 3% year-to-date[13] - Capacity rationalization trends are accelerating, with expected ethylene capacity closures[19] - Announced and anticipated shutdowns represent approximately 10% of current global supply[22] - The company is targeting approximately 80% operating rates in 4Q25 for Olefins & Polyolefins – Americas[44] - The company is targeting approximately 60% operating rates in 4Q25 for Olefins & Polyolefins – Europe, Asia & International[47] - The company is targeting approximately 75% operating rates in 4Q25 for Intermediates & Derivatives[53] Cash Improvement Plan - The Cash Improvement Plan is on track to deliver the $600 million target of incremental cash flow during 2025[27]

Core Insights - Polyethylene, polypropylene, and ammonia are expected to dominate global petrochemical project starts by 2030 due to strong economic growth and rising demand from various sectors such as packaging, automotive, medical, construction, and agriculture, particularly in China, India, and Iran [1] Polyethylene - A total of 127 polyethylene projects are anticipated to commence between 2025 and 2030, with most being new builds and a few expansions [2] - China is projected to lead globally, accounting for one-third of the upcoming polyethylene projects, all of which will be new builds and primarily under construction [2] - Iran and Russia are expected to follow with 20 and 17 projects respectively [2] Polypropylene - There are 121 polypropylene projects expected to start operations by 2030, with 118 being new builds and the remainder expansions of existing projects [4] - China will again lead, accounting for over 40% of these projects, with 35 currently under construction likely to commence operations by 2030 [4] Ammonia - Ammonia ranks next with 83 new build and nine expansion projects expected to begin operations by 2030 [5] - The US leads in project starts with 16 projects, followed by Australia and China, each with eight [5] - Currently, the US has three projects under construction, China has four, and Australia has one [5] Additional Information - Further details on petrochemical projects expected to come online from 2025 to 2030 can be found in GlobalData's report titled "Petrochemicals New-Build and Expansion Projects Outlook by Key Commodities, Region and Development Stage to 2030" [5]

Summary of Global Chemicals Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Global Chemicals** industry, particularly the impact of China's anti-involution measures and global supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector [1][3][10]. Key Themes and Insights 1. **Global Supply Growth Projections**: - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global supply from 2024 to 2028 is expected to be lower than from 2020 to 2024, with estimates of **3.1%** in a bear case (no Chinese closures) and **2.0%** in a bull case (all capacities over 20 years old closed) [1][21][52]. - The previous CAGR from 2020 to 2024 was **3.9%**, indicating a more disciplined supply growth moving forward [21][52]. 2. **Impact of China's Anti-Involution Measures**: - China's government is focusing on closing older capacities (over 20 years) to address oversupply issues in the refining and chemical markets [10][12]. - The anticipated recovery in the chemical sector is expected to be more meaningful from **mid-2026** onwards, contingent on the execution of these measures [13][23]. 3. **Investor Interest Reignited**: - The potential for anti-involution measures in China, combined with overseas chemical players closing plants due to high production costs, has rekindled investor interest in the chemical sector [3][10]. 4. **Product-Specific Capacity Growth**: - Capacity CAGRs for major products typically range from **1.0% to 6.4%** (without Chinese closures) and **0.8% to 4.0%** (with closures) [8][54]. - Specific products like ethylene and polyethylene are expected to see significant capacity additions in the upcoming years [65]. 5. **Profitability Trends**: - Major A-share chemical stocks have rallied approximately **10%** since the announcement of anti-involution measures on **July 18, 2025** [17]. - Despite a decline in profitability for major A-share companies in the first half of 2025, a seasonal recovery is expected in the second half [19][20]. Stock Recommendations - **China**: - Upgrade for **Wanhua** to Overweight (OW) with a price target of **Rmb80** due to expected benefits from volume growth and product spread expansion [25]. - Upgrade for **Rongsheng** to Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of **Rmb10.6**, anticipating quarterly earnings improvement [26]. - **Europe**: - Top pick is **Akzo**, with additional recommendations for **Syensqo**, **BASF**, and **AKE** [27][28]. - **India and Southeast Asia**: - Favorable outlook for **PTTGC** and **Petronas Chemicals** due to potential upside from China's anti-involution efforts [31]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include ineffective supply-side reforms, worsening demand due to trade tensions, and unfavorable inventory cycles [33]. Conclusion - The global chemicals industry is poised for a more disciplined growth phase, influenced by China's anti-involution measures and external market dynamics. The focus on closing older capacities and the potential for improved profitability in the coming years present both opportunities and risks for investors in this sector [1][10][20].