Core Insights - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching more than 1000 companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology [1] - The focus has shifted from blogging to a value investing-oriented YouTube channel, emphasizing research on hundreds of companies [1] - The analyst shows a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, while also being knowledgeable in consumer discretionary, REITs, and utilities [1] Company and Industry Summary - The analyst's research covers a wide range of industries, indicating a diverse investment approach [1] - The transition to a YouTube channel suggests a growing trend in digital content consumption for investment insights [1] - The emphasis on value investing reflects a strategic approach to identifying potential investment opportunities in various sectors [1]

This monthly article reports industry metrics in consumer staples, aiming at a top-down analysis of the sector based on value, quality, and momentum. It may also help analyze sector ETFs such as Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLPFred Piard, PhD. is a quantitative analyst and IT professional with over 30 years of experience working in technology. He is the author of three books and has been investing in data-driven systematic strategies since 2010. Fred runs the investing group Quantitative Risk & ...

AI Market Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that current AI investments are different from the dot-com bubble due to the presence of earnings in established companies [1][2] - The AI market is being driven by profitable companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet, which are generating substantial AI-related revenue, contrasting with many pre-profit companies during the dot-com era [2][3] - There is a speculative element in current valuations, primarily concerning the anticipated returns on AI investments rather than the existence of viable business models [2][5] Consumer Goods M&A Activity - Recent M&A activity in the consumer goods sector includes Kimberly Clark's acquisition of Kenvue for over $40 billion, Kraft Heinz splitting into two, and PepsiCo's multiple smaller acquisitions [6][7] - A Boston Consulting Group study indicated a 10% increase in global M&A activity in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year, with a significant rise in deal value in the consumer sector [6][7] - The consumer staples sector has underperformed the S&P 500 by 15% over the past three years, prompting consolidation efforts among companies [6][8] Company-Specific Analysis - Kimberly Clark's acquisition of Kenvue aims to enhance its position in the higher-margin consumer healthcare space, potentially generating $32 billion in annual revenue [6][9] - Concerns exist regarding Meta's ability to monetize its investments, as it has shifted from funding through free cash flow to taking on significant debt [4][9] - The middle segment of the retail market has been hollowed out, with consumers favoring premium brands or store brands, which poses challenges for companies like Kraft Heinz and Kimberly Clark [8][9]

Core Insights - The "High Income DIY Portfolios" Marketplace service aims to provide high income with low risk and capital preservation for DIY investors, particularly targeting income investors such as retirees or near-retirees [1][2] - The service offers seven portfolios, including three buy-and-hold, three rotational portfolios, and a conservative NPP strategy portfolio, designed to create stable, long-term passive income with sustainable yields [1][2] Portfolio Details - The portfolios include two High-Income portfolios, two Dividend Growth Investing (DGI) portfolios, and a conservative NPP strategy portfolio characterized by low drawdowns and high growth potential [1] - The service encompasses a total of 10 model portfolios with varying income targets and risk levels, along with buy and sell alerts and live chat support for investors [2]

Core Insights - The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX) stock price has declined by approximately 11% following the last article, underperforming the benchmark [1] Company Summary - Clorox operates within the consumer staples industry, which is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience in asset management, focusing on equity analysis, macroeconomics, and risk-managed portfolio construction [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends and their influence on asset prices and investor behavior [1] Investment Philosophy - The goal of sharing insights is to empower and inspire investors, promoting confidence in long-term investing [1]

Core Insights - The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX) stock price has declined by approximately 11% following the last article, underperforming the benchmark [1] Company Analysis - The consumer staples industry is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio, indicating market valuation trends [1] Market Context - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends and their influence on asset prices and investor behavior [1]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 ended October with a 1.9% increase, marking its sixth consecutive monthly gain, the longest stretch in four years [1][2] - The index continued its upward momentum into November, adding approximately 0.18% on the first Monday of the month [1] Economic Outlook - Progress in the U.S.-China trade agreement, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October, and rising AI demand contribute to a positive outlook for the U.S. economy [2] - Despite the optimistic economic picture, underlying volatility risks remain, suggesting a cautious approach may be prudent [2][5] Volatility Concerns - Ongoing government shutdown, diminishing expectations for a December rate cut, and worries about a potential AI bubble may increase market volatility [3][4] - The sustainability of the U.S.-China trade truce is questioned, adding to investor anxiety [3] Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict a potential 10-20% market pullback within the next 12 to 24 months, which is typical in long-term bull markets [6][7] - Both firms emphasize that periodic pullbacks should be viewed as healthy market corrections rather than crises [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive and conservative investment theme to navigate potential market turbulence [9] - Increasing allocations toward defensive funds while maintaining exposure to growth-oriented investments may be a sound strategy [10] ETF Recommendations - Value ETFs, characterized by solid fundamentals and trading below intrinsic value, have shown positive performance, with the S&P 500 Value Index gaining 7.52% year to date [12] - Consumer staple ETFs provide stability, with the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index up 3.20% year to date, making them a good option for risk-averse investors [13] - Quality ETFs are recommended as a strategic response to market uncertainty, offering a buffer against potential headwinds [14] Investment Strategies for Stability - Passive, long-term strategies such as buy-and-hold or dollar-cost averaging are suggested to help investors navigate potential pullbacks while positioning for sustainable returns [15][16]

Eastman Chemical double miss after being replaced in S&P 500 by DuPont spinoff Qnity , says expect "greater than normal seasonal decline."Sarepta Therapeutics reports -$0.13 adjusted EPS (vs. -$0.78 expected) on $399.4 million (vs. $343 million expected). Labeling discussions "progressing and expected to be concluded soon." Company took $40.5 million charge from restructuring in Q3ZoomInfo Technologies reports adjusted EPS of $0.28 (no comp) on $318 million in revenue (no comp). Q4 Adj. EPS Outlook: $0.27 t ...

Core Insights - The comparison between Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) and Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) highlights their performance, costs, and risk profiles in the U.S. consumer staples sector [1] Cost & Size - VDC has an expense ratio of 0.09%, while XLP has a slightly lower expense ratio of 0.08% [2] - As of October 27, 2025, VDC's one-year return is 0.2%, whereas XLP has a negative return of (2.5%) [2] - Dividend yield for VDC is 2.2%, compared to XLP's higher yield of 2.7% [2] - VDC has assets under management (AUM) of $8.5 billion, while XLP has a larger AUM of $16.4 billion [2] Performance & Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, VDC experienced a maximum drawdown of (16.54%), slightly worse than XLP's (16.29%) [3] - An investment of $1,000 in VDC would have grown to $1,344 over five years, compared to $1,268 for XLP [3] Holdings Composition - XLP is concentrated exclusively in the consumer defensive sector with 100% of its assets in this category, holding only 37 stocks [4] - VDC also skews heavily defensive at 98% but includes over 100 companies, providing broader representation and potentially reducing single-stock risk [5] Long-term Returns - Over the past decade, XLP delivered a total return of 99.6%, while VDC outperformed with a total return of 108.1% [6] - The S&P 500 index significantly outperformed both ETFs with a return of 290.8% over the same period [6] Dividend Growth - XLP's latest quarterly dividend payment increased by 46.3% over the past decade, outperforming VDC's dividend growth of 25.9% [8]

Core Insights - The consumer staples sector has remained relatively flat year to date, contrasting with a 15%-plus return for the S&P 500, making it appealing for value investors seeking passive income [1] - The sector includes a diverse range of companies such as household and personal products, retailers, grocery stores, food distributors, non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco, spirits, and consumer packaged goods [3] - Consumer staples tend to be resilient during economic downturns, as demand for essential products remains stable, although consumers may shift to generic brands to save costs [4] Sector Performance - Many leading companies in the consumer staples sector are facing low organic growth, declining sales volumes, and resistance to price increases due to consumers' focus on value amid rising living costs [5] - The sector has underperformed growth stocks in recent years, but low-cost sector ETFs provide an accessible investment avenue for those looking to capitalize on a potential recovery in consumer spending [8] Investment Opportunities - Consumer staples ETFs, such as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund and the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF, offer a diversified investment strategy, allowing investors to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending while generating passive income [6] - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, managed by State Street Global Advisors, has $16.1 billion in net assets, making it significantly larger than Vanguard's ETF and BlackRock's iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF, which has $1.3 billion [7]