Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to respond to the Iran war and the oil shock, with new forecasts indicating an increase in inflation outlook and a decrease in growth outlook [1][2]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation remains above the Fed's target, with the preferred gauge still beyond their comfort zone, indicating persistent inflation in certain sectors [4][7]. - The inflation narrative is mixed, with some sectors like insurance, education, and healthcare showing sticky inflation [5]. Growth Outlook - The Fed is likely to nudge down its growth outlook due to concerns over inflation and the impact of high oil prices on consumers and businesses [2][6]. - The weak employment numbers from February may also influence the Fed's considerations regarding growth [2]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The hawkish members of the FOMC are currently in control, suggesting a potential shift in discussions towards rate hikes in the future, although immediate hikes are not anticipated [6]. - The Fed's debate may evolve around how to address the oil shock and its implications for monetary policy [2][6].

Appointments & Policy - A conservative economist was selected to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1]