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Trader's guide to navigating supply disruption by war
The Economic Times· 2026-03-16 00:47
Energy Sector - Surging energy prices threaten to dampen demand for semiconductors by increasing operational costs of AI data centers [1] - A prolonged Iran war and elevated oil prices are prompting stock investors to reassess various industries [9] Food and Cooking Gas - Supply disruptions in West Asia have created acute shortages in India's cooking gas market, negatively impacting shares of Eternal Ltd, Swiggy Ltd, and Jubilant Foodworks Ltd [2] - Fears of an extended cooking-gas shortage have boosted shares of electric cook-top manufacturers like TTK Prestige Ltd and Stove Kraft Ltd as consumers seek alternatives [4] Automotive Industry - Higher oil prices may stifle consumer demand for cars, with Ford Motor Co being particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on oil-guzzling vehicles [5] - Toyota Motor Corp and Hyundai Motor Co are expected to face significant impacts from decreased sales in East Asia, which accounts for 17% and 10% of their total sales, respectively [5][10] - Hyundai shares have plummeted 23% this month, while Toyota shares have decreased by 12% [10] Retail Sector - Rising oil prices are increasing distribution costs and reducing consumers' discretionary spending, leading to double-digit drops in shares of US-listed apparel brands and retailers such as Lululemon Athletica Inc, Nike Inc, Macy's Inc, and RH [6][10] - Clothing suppliers in China are preparing for higher input costs due to increased prices of oil-derived chemical fibers like polyester and acrylic [6][10] Fertilizer Industry - Approximately 35% of global fertilizer raw materials pass through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a bottleneck that is expected to drive North American fertilizer prices higher [7][10] - The outlook is more negative for the Asia-Pacific region, which heavily relies on West Asian imports, with stocks like Dyno Nobel Ltd and Nufarm Ltd experiencing declines of 9% and 4% respectively [7][10] - In India, officials are seeking permission from China to sell urea cargoes as the war disrupts gas supplies, threatening local fertilizer production and causing stocks like Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers to drop [8][10]