This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have feedback It’s been another week with far more retail news than there is time in the day. Below, we break down some things you may have missed during the week and what we’re still thinking about. From Le Creuset’s Wicked collection to REI’s new strategy, here’s our closeout for the week.What you may have missedEtsy to move stock listing to NYSE Etsy this week announced it will move its common stock from the Nasdaq Stock Market to the New York Stoc ...

H-1B Visa Trends - Indian IT services exporters, including Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, and LTIMindtree, have reduced H-1B filings by an average of 46% over five years, with TCS reporting 5,505 H-1B employees last year, second only to Amazon [3][10] - Global peers like Accenture, Capgemini, Cognizant, and IBM have also seen an average drop of 44% in H-1B filings between FY21 and FY25 [3][10] - Big Tech companies are increasing their H-1B sponsorships, with OpenAI filing 76 petitions and Anthropic filing 41 [3][10] Industry Adaptation - Indian software giants are shifting their business models by hiring locally, nearshoring to Mexico and Eastern Europe, and automating core processes due to immigration fatigue, geopolitical unease, and rising protectionism [5][12] - The proposed HIRE Act, which aims to tax US firms that outsource, could further complicate the H-1B landscape [10] Real-Money Gaming Sector - Games24x7 plans to lay off 500 employees, approximately 70% of its workforce, due to a ban on online real-money gaming [5][12] - The gaming sector is facing significant challenges, with over 2,000 professionals actively seeking new jobs following the ban [7][12] - Other companies, such as Mobile Premier League, have also laid off around 60% of their Indian staff due to the new regulations [7][12] AI in Therapy - Demand for online therapy is increasing, with startups like Docvita and Amaha Health reporting user growth of 16% and 80% year-on-year, respectively [8][12] - Startups are developing AI tools to enhance therapy services, including chatbots for matching clients with therapists [8][12]

Core Insights - Amazon is experiencing a significant price increase on products, particularly those labeled as "Made in China," with nearly 1,000 items seeing an average price rise of about 30% since mid-April [1] - The median price of over 1,400 "Made in China" products on Amazon has increased by 2.6% from January to mid-June, surpassing the core inflation rate in the U.S. during the same period [1] - Price hikes are not limited to specific categories but are spreading to frequently purchased essential goods, including tech accessories, women's clothing, and kitchenware [1] Group 1 - The primary driver of the price increase is not supply and demand but rather policy changes, including a 10% base tariff on Chinese products and higher tariffs on steel-related products and automobiles [2] - New import rules have eliminated the previous exemption for small packages valued under $800, leading to price increases on platforms like Temu, where a pair of shoes has nearly doubled in price from $14 to $27 [2] - Amazon has attempted to downplay the impact of these price increases, stating that affected products represent only 1% of its top 100,000 best-selling items, but the effects are significant for price-sensitive consumers and sellers relying on low-cost strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing challenges in achieving its 30% sales growth target for FY25E due to weaker-than-expected sales trends, particularly in online sales in the US and China, and rising import tariffs impacting gross profit margins [1][5][7] Sales Growth Outlook - Sales growth in 2Q25E is expected to be slow, with estimates indicating a mixture of 10% growth in the US and negative growth in China and Europe, influenced by a high base from previous years and changing consumer interests [2][4] - The company has not altered its guidance of 30%+ sales growth for FY25E, but revised forecasts now suggest a more conservative 14% growth, down from 23%, with expectations of single-digit growth in 1H25E and 20% growth in 2H25E [4][7] Market-Specific Insights - In the US market, sales growth is projected at 10%, primarily driven by offline expansion, while e-commerce sales may face sluggish growth due to industry factors [4] - The Chinese market shows weak demand for small appliances and cookware, with potential year-over-year declines in sales for Carote in 1H25E and FY25E [4] - The European market is not a major focus for the company, leading to potentially weaker-than-expected sales growth [4] Impact of Tariffs - Recent increases in US tariffs on steel- and aluminium-based products could significantly impact gross profit margins, with total tariffs on Carote's products potentially reaching 73.3% [5][6] - The company may pass on about 15% of the tariffs through supply chain adjustments but will still face a 35% burden, leading to a revised gross profit margin assumption of around 33% for the US market in FY25E [6] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The company has downgraded its rating to HOLD and cut the target price to HK$ 4.64, based on a 10x FY25E P/E, reflecting a 28% reduction in net profit forecasts for FY25E due to weaker demand and higher import tariffs [1][7]

Group 1 - Walmart and Target are negotiating with suppliers regarding price hikes due to tariffs, which will influence product pricing and inventory decisions [1][2] - Retailers express concerns that raising prices could lead to loss of market share and customers, complicating negotiations with suppliers facing increased costs from tariffs [2][3] - Nordic Ware, a cookware manufacturer, reports a 10% to 15% increase in costs due to aluminum tariffs, complicating their pricing strategy for the holiday season [3] Group 2 - Walmart emphasizes collaboration with suppliers to navigate pricing challenges during uncertain times [4] - Target indicates it is too early to assess specific price changes but is taking a comprehensive approach to pricing analysis [5] - Research indicates that 60% of middle-market CFOs believe tariffs will exacerbate economic uncertainty and planning difficulties [6] Group 3 - Nearly 70% of CFOs anticipate supply shortages or delays, with many expecting increased raw material costs and complications from retaliatory tariffs [7] - Most smaller businesses foresee negative impacts from tariffs, such as product shortages and declining product quality [7]