Core Insights - Elevance Health, Inc. is facing challenges from rising medical costs, slower Medicaid recovery, and increased utilization, leading to a reduced outlook for 2025 [1][5] - The company reported a significant increase in benefits expenses and cost of products sold in the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - Benefits expense surged nearly 18% to over $72 billion, while cost of products sold increased almost 19% to $10.3 billion [1] - The second-quarter benefit expense ratio reached 88.9%, up 260 basis points year over year, with a projected full-year ratio of about 90% compared to 88.5% in 2024 [2][9] Membership and Growth - Commercial individual memberships rose 9.7% in the first half of 2025, following a 25.6% increase in 2024, indicating strong growth in the commercial segment [3][9] - Carelon's revenue is expected to grow nearly 30% in 2025, driven by a 60% surge in Carelon Services [4][9] Competitive Landscape - Other companies in the health benefits space, such as UnitedHealth Group and Centene Corporation, are also experiencing pressure from rising medical costs [6] - UnitedHealth's medical care ratio deteriorated to 89.4%, while Centene's health benefits ratio reached 93%, indicating industry-wide challenges [7] Valuation and Estimates - Elevance's shares have declined 20.7% year-to-date, compared to a 3.9% decline in the industry [8] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Elevance is 9.19, significantly lower than the industry average of 14.57, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings at $30.59 per share, reflecting a 7.4% decline from the previous year [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Elevance Health, Inc. is trading at a discount with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 10.35X, below its five-year median of 13.46X and the industry average of 13.86X, indicating attractive valuation compared to peers [1][2] Group 1: Growth Drivers - Elevance is positioned for sustained growth through strategic initiatives in its commercial and government segments, with commercial memberships growing 4.6% and 1% year-over-year in 2024, and a notable 14.2% increase in its Individual Commercial business in Q1 2025 [4][5] - The company has streamlined its government business by exiting underperforming markets, enhancing efficiency and potential for growth in Medicare Advantage in underpenetrated states [5] - Elevance's Return on Invested Capital stands at 9.94%, significantly above the industry average of 5.79%, showcasing superior capital deployment capabilities [6] Group 2: Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders, having repurchased $880 million worth of shares in Q1 2025, with $8.4 billion remaining under its buyback authorization, and a dividend yield of 1.82%, exceeding the industry average of 1.40% [7] Group 3: Market Performance - Despite broader market challenges, Elevance shares have gained 1.9% year-to-date, outperforming both the industry and the S&P 500, while peers UnitedHealth and Humana have experienced declines [8] Group 4: Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Elevance's EPS indicates a 4.2% increase for 2025 and a 13.8% increase for 2026, with revenue estimates suggesting an 11.2% increase for 2025 and a 7.1% increase for 2026 [11] Group 5: Challenges and Risks - Elevance faces challenges including a decline in Medicaid and Medicare Supplement membership, which could lead to overall membership losses and reduced revenues [12] - Rising medical costs are a significant concern, with the benefit expense ratio increasing from 87% in 2023 to an estimated 88.7% in 2025, indicating pressure on earnings [13] - Regulatory uncertainties, particularly related to the Pharmacy Benefit Management industry, pose additional risks for Elevance [14]