Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook on commodities, particularly recommending long positions in commodities and oil/energy as the best trades for 2026 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in market dynamics, indicating that commodities are outperforming bonds in the current inflationary growth environment, contrasting with the previous era of secular stagnation [2][3]. - It notes that LatAm stocks have increased by 56% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the region [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring bond market reactions to the "run-it-hot" trade, as they pose a potential threat to stock and credit market upside in 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at 59.1%, stocks at 19.6%, and commodities at 6.7%, while oil has declined by 16.8% [2]. - The report indicates that the biggest inflows have been into cash ($112.3 billion) and bonds ($15.4 billion), with a notable outflow from tech stocks [13][17]. Investment Strategies - The report advocates for long positions in commodities and oil/energy, viewing them as contrarian trades that are likely to yield positive returns in 2026 [3]. - It suggests tactical long positions in zero coupon bonds in anticipation of Fed cuts, while also recommending mid-cap stocks as a favorable investment due to their relative undervaluation [16]. Economic Indicators - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator has decreased to 6.0, indicating a neutral sentiment in the market [60]. - The report notes that the current economic environment is characterized by rising bond yields in Japan and China, which are seen as secular floors for global yields [18]. Sector Analysis - Inflows into high-yield bonds ($2.3 billion) and emerging market debt ($2.4 billion) are highlighted, indicating a positive sentiment towards these sectors [17]. - The report also mentions significant outflows from tech stocks, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards more stable sectors [17][40].