Core Insights - The "Wage to Wallet Index" highlights the significance of 60 million workers in the U.S. economy, including warehouse associates, delivery drivers, and caregivers, who collectively contribute over $1.7 trillion in annual consumer spending [1][2][3] - This workforce segment operates under precarious financial conditions, which poses risks to the broader economy [2][3] - The index utilizes a proprietary economic model to assess the spending power of the Labor Economy and its impact on U.S. consumer expenditures [6] Economic Impact - A 1% change in wages for this workforce can influence GDP by $17 billion, indicating that wage stability and liquidity are crucial for national economic performance [3] - The timing of income affects consumption patterns, with predictable paydays being essential for maintaining demand stability [7] - Economic fragility among these workers, characterized by lower savings and higher credit dependence, can lead to systemic risks that affect inflation and growth trends [7] Resilience Factors - Instant access to earnings enhances financial resilience, reducing reliance on high-cost credit and boosting overall economic confidence [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of viewing the Labor Economy as a vital infrastructure that supports growth, productivity, and financial stability [5]

There are 200m-odd people in China whom the state considers to be “flexible workers”. Their progress, or lack of it, will set the terms for the country’s future https://t.co/attSjuYXEs ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese consumer market** and its dynamics in Q2 2025, particularly regarding household income, spending, and consumer confidence. Key Points 1. Household Income and Spending - Household disposable income growth slowed to **5.1% year-over-year** in Q2 from **5.5%** in Q1, indicating a deceleration in income growth [4][5] - Nominal consumption growth remained flat at **5.2% year-over-year** in Q2, with per capita consumption growth decelerating to **4.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized** from **8.3%** in Q1 [4][5] - The decline in consumption growth was attributed to weaker spending in categories such as food, education, culture and entertainment, and transport and telecommunications [4] 2. Labor Market Conditions - Signs of softening in the labor market were observed, with the weighted average of employment sub-indexes under various PMI surveys declining in Q2 compared to Q1 [18][21] - Year-over-year growth in official wage income and migrant workers' average monthly income decreased to **4.7%** and **3.0%**, respectively, from **5.2%** and **3.3%** in Q1 [4][24] - Urban wage growth moderated to **3.9% year-over-year** in Q2 from **4.2%** in Q1 [27] 3. Household Savings and Deposits - The household savings rate fell below pre-COVID trend levels in Q2, with an estimated **RMB 55 trillion** in "excess deposits" compared to pre-COVID trends [37][40] - Household bank deposits continued to increase, indicating a shift towards saving rather than spending [37][40] 4. Consumer Confidence - The NBS consumer confidence index remained depressed in the first two months of Q2, with reports of nationwide childbirth subsidies being rolled out, though their impact is yet to be determined [4][46] - The number of marriage registrations has shown a structural downward trend for over a decade, complicating efforts to boost consumer confidence [47] 5. Retail Sales and Auto Sales - Retail sales growth accelerated in Q2, driven by stronger goods sales, although new property sales declined sequentially [8][13] - Auto sales volume was above last year's level in Q2, with a **16.2% year-over-year** increase in June [12] 6. Other Notable Trends - The labor cost sub-index in the CKGSB Business Condition Index survey showed slower growth in Q2, reflecting broader economic challenges [4][24] - The year-over-year increase in the migrant worker population has slowed in recent quarters, indicating potential labor market constraints [31][32] Conclusion - The Chinese consumer market is experiencing a slowdown in income growth and consumption, alongside signs of labor market softening. Despite some positive trends in retail and auto sales, overall consumer confidence remains low, influenced by structural demographic trends and economic uncertainties.