Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying strong growth stocks can be challenging due to inherent volatility and risks [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Central Garden (CENT) is currently highlighted as a recommended growth stock by the Zacks Growth Style Score system, which evaluates a company's genuine growth potential [2] - The company has a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank, indicating strong investment potential [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is a critical factor for growth investors, with double-digit growth being particularly desirable [4] - Central Garden's projected EPS growth for this year is 17.9%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 1% [5] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - High cash flow growth is essential for growth-oriented companies, allowing them to fund new projects without relying on external financing [6] - Central Garden's year-over-year cash flow growth stands at 8.7%, compared to an industry average of -3.8% [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 11.4%, exceeding the industry average of 9% [7] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions are correlated with stock price movements [8] - The current-year earnings estimates for Central Garden have increased by 0.4% over the past month, indicating a favorable outlook [8] Group 5: Investment Positioning - Central Garden has achieved a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to overall positive earnings estimate revisions and has a Growth Score of B [10] - This combination positions Central Garden favorably for potential outperformance, making it an attractive option for growth investors [10]

Core Viewpoint - Central Garden (CENT) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues, with the actual results being crucial for near-term stock price movements [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show quarterly earnings of $1.34 per share, reflecting a +1.5% change year-over-year, while revenues are projected at $987.14 million, down 0.9% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a positive Earnings ESP of +6.98% for Central Garden, suggesting analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. Historical Performance - Central Garden has a strong track record, having beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, including a +10.64% surprise in the most recent quarter [13][14]. Investment Considerations - While a positive earnings surprise is likely, other factors may influence stock performance, making it essential for investors to consider the broader context beyond just earnings results [15][17].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date EBITDA increased by 9%, and EPS rose by 24% [11][58] - Gross margin improved to above 30%, with a GAAP gross margin rate of 33.7% compared to 28% in the prior year [57][60] - Total company net sales for the third quarter were $1.19 billion, down 1% year-over-year, while year-to-date total net sales were $3.03 billion, a decline of 3.6% [50][62] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Consumer net sales for the quarter were $1.03 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, and year-to-date sales were $2.68 billion, down 1% [45][46] - POS units across categories were up 8% year-to-date, with notable increases in soils (+12%), mulch (+8%), and grass seed (+16%) [11][52] - The branded lawn fertilizers saw a 1% increase in POS units year-to-date, reversing a multi-year downward trend [52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lawn and garden market grew approximately 5% year-to-date, with the company gaining 2% market share [80] - E-commerce sales increased by 54% in online POS unit sales, reflecting a strong push to engage consumers through digital channels [24][51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on internal initiatives to improve cost structure and efficiency while also shifting towards outward-facing initiatives to enhance consumer engagement [7][9] - Plans include expanding marketing efforts to younger consumers through digital platforms and influencers, as well as enhancing the R&D pipeline with more natural and organic solutions [21][25] - The company aims for sustained U.S. Consumer sales growth averaging 3% annually, with a gross margin target of 35% or higher [38][63] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving EBITDA guidance and reaffirmed expectations for top and bottom line metrics despite weather challenges [10][11] - The company is optimistic about the lawn and garden category's growth and the strength of its consumer business, emphasizing the importance of partnerships with retailers [35][94] - Management highlighted the positive impact of recent tax policy changes on future cash tax benefits, allowing for further investment in the business [60] Other Important Information - The company is in the process of divesting its Hawthorne business, which has shown three consecutive quarters of profitability [36][49] - The company plans to take pricing in the upcoming fiscal year to support margin recovery and innovation investments [39][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing and price mix performance in '25 and strategy for '26 - Management indicated a pricing increase of just under 1.5% in '25, with plans to pursue further pricing adjustments in '26 while maintaining activation spending with retail partners [77][78] Question: Category growth at retail in '25 and comparison to company performance - The lawn and garden market has grown about 5% year-to-date, with the company gaining approximately 2% market share [80] Question: Performance of customers who engaged in traffic-driving strategies - Management noted that retailers who actively participated in promotional programs saw better performance, and future spending will focus on those retailers [84][86] Question: Visibility into achieving mid-30s gross margin over the next few years - Management outlined a phased approach to improving gross margin, targeting a 1% benefit from supply chain savings and another 1% from net pricing adjustments [90][91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date EBITDA increased by 9%, and EPS rose by 24% [9][53] - Gross margin is above 30%, with a GAAP gross margin rate of 31.8% compared to 29.5% in the prior year [52][50] - Total company net sales for the third quarter were $1,190 million, down 1% from $1,200 million a year ago [46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - POS units across categories are up 8% year-to-date, with branded lawn fertilizers POS units up 1% [9][48] - Soils POS units increased by 12%, mulch by 8%, and grass seed by 16% year-to-date [9][48] - Hawthorne net sales were $31 million for the quarter, down from $68 million in the prior year [45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Consumer net sales for the quarter were $1,030 million, an increase of 1% year-over-year [41] - The lawn and garden market has grown about 5% year-to-date, with the company gaining about 2% market share [74][75] - E-commerce sales increased by 54% in online POS unit sales [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on internal initiatives to improve cost structure and efficiency while also shifting to outward-facing initiatives to enhance consumer engagement [6][7] - Plans to invest in technology, AI, and automation to drive operational efficiencies [57][16] - The transformation initiative aims to create a world-class consumer goods company and expand marketing efforts to younger consumers [17][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed EBITDA guidance and expects to deliver on top and bottom line metrics [8] - The company is optimistic about the lawn and garden category's growth and its ability to capture market share [62][88] - Management highlighted the importance of partnerships with retailers and the positive outlook for the lawn and garden market [32][66] Other Important Information - The company plans to take pricing in the next fiscal year to help drive margins [36] - The transformation of the lawns business is underway, focusing on a revamped product line and new media strategies [26][29] - The company is committed to sustainability and meeting consumer demands for organic and natural products [23][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the pricing strategy for '26? - The company took a pricing increase of just under 1.5% in '25 and plans to pursue pricing in '26, considering commodity costs [71][72] Question: What is the category growth at retail in '25? - The lawn and garden market has grown about 5% year-to-date, with the company gaining about 2% of that share [74][75] Question: How are retailers responding to the activation strategy? - Retailers that engaged with the company's activation strategy saw relative outperformance, and the company plans to continue investing in those partnerships [79][80] Question: What is the visibility into achieving mid-30s gross margin? - The company expects to achieve mid-30s gross margin through supply chain savings and net pricing strategies over the next few years [85][86]

Core Insights - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) has reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, indicating strong performance during the peak lawn and garden season with consistent year-over-year growth in consumer point-of-sale (POS) units and dollars [1][8] Financial Performance - The company expects a decline in interest expense by approximately $30 million compared to the previous year, an increase from the earlier forecast of $15-$20 million [2] - SMG has revised its projected increase in share count to about 1 million, down from the prior estimate of 2 million [2] - Adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to be at least $3.50, representing a 53% increase over the previous year [2] - The company projects adjusted EBITDA to range between $570 million and $590 million, with an expected adjusted gross margin of around 30% [4][8] - SMG aims to generate approximately $250 million in free cash flow for the fiscal year [4][8] Market Position - During the peak season, SMG has achieved favorable results, reflecting a resilient consumer base and effective marketing efforts, reinforcing confidence in meeting full-year outlooks [3] - The company is on track to improve its debt profile, aiming for a leverage goal of below 3.5 by the end of fiscal 2027 [3] Stock Performance - SMG's shares have decreased by 4.7% over the past year, contrasting with a 0.8% growth in its industry [5]

Core Insights - Scotts Miracle-Gro Company will participate in the William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 5, 2025, in Chicago [1][2] - The company is a leader in branded consumer lawn and garden products, with approximately $3.6 billion in sales [3] Company Overview - Scotts Miracle-Gro is the world's largest marketer of branded consumer products for lawn and garden care, with well-known brands such as Scotts®, Miracle-Gro®, and Ortho® [3] - The company's subsidiary, The Hawthorne Gardening Company, specializes in indoor and hydroponic growing products [3]

Core Insights - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) reported a second-quarter fiscal 2025 profit of $217.5 million or $3.72 per share, a 38% increase from $157.5 million or $2.74 per share in the prior-year quarter [1] - Adjusted earnings were $3.98 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.95 [1] Financial Performance - Net sales for the fiscal second quarter were $1,421 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,498.2 million, and reflecting a year-over-year decline of approximately 6.8% [2] - U.S. Consumer division net sales decreased by 5% year over year to $1,311.5 million, falling short of the estimate of $1,373.2 million, while the segment recorded a profit of $392.5 million, up 2% year over year [3] - The Hawthorne segment's net sales plummeted 51% year over year to $32.7 million, missing the estimate of $70.4 million, and reported a loss of $0.9 million, which was an improvement from a loss of $3.4 million in the previous year [4] - The other segment's net sales fell 3% year over year to $76.8 million, exceeding the estimate of $62.3 million, and reported a profit of $9 million, up 41% [4] - At the end of the fiscal second quarter, cash and cash equivalents were $16.9 million, down around 74% year over year, while long-term debt decreased roughly 9.7% to $2,493.2 million [5] Outlook - The company reiterated its guidance for U.S. Consumer segment net sales, adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, but has ceased issuing full-year revenue guidance for the Hawthorne segment due to ongoing uncertainty in the cannabis business [6] Stock Performance - SMG's shares have declined by 23.7% over the past year, compared to a 10.1% decline in its industry [7] Zacks Rank - SMG currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space including Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN), SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM), and Coeur Mining (CDE) [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company net sales for Q2 2025 were $1.42 billion, down 7% from $1.53 billion a year ago [40] - U.S. Consumer net sales decreased 5% to $1.31 billion from $1.38 billion, attributed to a slower start to the lawn and garden season and non-repeating sales from the previous year [40] - Year-to-date total net sales were $1.84 billion, down 5% from $1.94 billion [41] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 improved to $403 million from $396 million, with a year-to-date increase of $36 million to $407 million [49] - GAAP net income for Q2 was $217.5 million or $3.72 per share, compared to $157.5 million or $2.74 per share a year ago [50] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Garden business saw a 16% increase in POS units, while the Mulch business experienced a 46% increase [12] - POS units overall increased by 12.1%, with notable growth in mulch, soils, fertilizer, grass seed, and controls [42] - Hawthorne net sales declined 51% to $33 million, reflecting market softness and strategic exit from low-margin distribution [41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that 75% of consumers view lawn and garden care as essential, with 25% planning to shift to DIY this year [25] - Retailers are heavily promoting the company's products, which has positively impacted market share [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming its cost structure and improving productivity, aiming for $150 million in supply chain cost savings by fiscal 2027 [29] - A strategic divestiture of the Hawthorne business is underway to reduce volatility and improve gross margins [27] - The company plans to roll out changes in product packaging and formulations in fiscal 2026 and 2027 to better meet consumer needs [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed full-year EBITDA guidance of $570 million to $590 million, citing strong consumer takeaway and market share gains [7] - The company remains confident in its ability to navigate the current macroeconomic environment, with minimal exposure to tariffs [23] - Management expressed optimism about the resilience of the consumer base, noting that homeowners have more disposable income [25] Other Important Information - The company has achieved a nearly 500 basis point recovery in gross margin, with a target of 30% gross margin rate by fiscal year-end [46] - The company has reduced debt and interest expenses, with total debt down $270 million year-over-year [49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you explain the difference between the 12% growth in units and the low single-digit growth in dollars? - Management indicated that the difference is largely due to a mix of product types and heavy retailer promotions driving unit sales, while dollar growth is slower due to pricing strategies [56][60][62] Question: What is the impact of consumers trading down to DIY? - Management views this as a potential positive, as many consumers take pride in gardening and may find DIY solutions more cost-effective [72][74] Question: What is the pricing gap between the company's products and private labels? - Management noted that the pricing gap remains around the historical 20% to 30%, but promotional activities have helped close this gap [78][82] Question: Is there a risk of pantry loading among consumers? - Management does not see significant risk of pantry loading, citing strong early season performance and new consumer engagement [85][89] Question: What is the outlook for Hawthorne's EBITDA guidance? - Management did not adjust the total company EBITDA guidance despite Hawthorne's underperformance, citing strong gross margin improvements and cost-saving measures [90][92]