Core Insights - Copper futures are expected to potentially reach $5 per pound by the end of 2025, supported by strong supply-demand fundamentals [1] - As of September 16, 2025, COMEX copper futures were just below $4.70 per pound, with LME forwards trading at $10,126.50 per metric ton [2] - A long-term bullish trend in copper prices has been established, with significant price movements observed in 2025 [3][4] Price Trends - COMEX copper futures reached a record high of $5.9585 per pound in July 2025, maintaining a bullish trend despite volatility [4] - LME forwards also reached a record high in October 2025, indicating a strong upward trend in copper prices [5][6] Inventory Dynamics - Tariffs have caused a significant shift in copper inventories, with LME stocks dropping nearly 50% to 135,725 tons by November 14, 2025, while COMEX inventories surged by 309.3% to 381,296 metric tons [7] - The overall combined stocks increased by over 150,000 tons from the end of 2024 to November 14, 2025, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices have reached their highest level since May 2022, driven by tightening supply in China and an improving demand outlook as trade tensions ease [1][2] - In October, aluminum gained over 7%, marking its best performance in more than a year, as a state-imposed production cap in China is expected to tighten supply while demand in construction and consumer goods sectors rebounds [2] - The recent trade agreement between the US and China has reduced uncertainty for the global economy and the metals market outlook [2] Group 2 - Despite the positive developments, risks remain, particularly with slowing momentum in China's economy, as indicated by a private survey of manufacturing that fell more than expected in October [4] - China's official factory gauge has recorded its longest streak of declines in over nine years, highlighting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4] - On the London Metal Exchange, aluminum futures settled at $2,902 per metric ton, while other metals showed mixed performance, with copper down 0.3% and zinc up 1.5% [5]