Markets reacting to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Worsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. I spoke with Kevin Worsh in July. On this program, on the rate cut outlook and the US economy, as well as on Sunday morning futures.Watch this. >> The president's right to be frustrated with the JPAL and the Federal Reserve. Uh inflation comes when the government spends too much.Why is it that money and financial conditions are so loose on Wall Street and considerably tighter on Main Street. Becau ...

Invesco Mortgage Capital (NYSE:IVR) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 30, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBrian Norris - CIOGreg Seals - Head of Investor RelationsJason Stewart - Md & Head of Specialty Finance & Real Estate ResearchJason Weaver - Md & Head of Specialty Finance & Real Estate ResearchJohn Anzalone - CEOConference Call ParticipantsDouglas Harter - Director & Senior Equity Research AnalystEric Hagen - Md & Mortgage & Specialty Finance AnalystTrevor Cranston - Director & Senior Equity Research ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial conditions improved during the quarter, supported by two Federal Reserve rate cuts, solid corporate earnings, and strong economic growth [4] - Book value per common share increased by 3.7% to $8.72, resulting in an 8% economic return for the quarter [7] - The liquidity position remained robust with $453 million in unrestricted cash and unencumbered assets [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency mortgage portfolio was valued at $5.4 billion, while the agency CMBS portfolio was $900 million [8] - Agency RMBS investments increased by 11% quarter over quarter, focusing on 5% and 5.5% coupons [18] - The agency CMBS allocation declined modestly due to growth in the overall portfolio, despite no new purchases [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interest rates were generally stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending the year at 4.17%, 40 basis points lower than the start of the year [10] - The yield curve steepened, benefiting longer-term investments such as agency RMBS and agency CMBS [11] - Agency mortgages delivered strong performance, driven by reduced interest rate volatility and robust demand from money managers [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains positive on agency mortgages, anticipating favorable conditions due to lower interest rate volatility and expectations for broadening demand [9] - The strategy includes a focus on specified pools with lower loan balances to enhance predictability of cash flows [19] - The company plans to selectively access the ATM for capital raising when conditions are favorable [42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the economic environment is supportive, with expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026 [6] - The company views near-term risks as balanced, with a positive outlook for agency mortgages due to favorable supply and demand technicals [26] - Management highlighted that the current environment reflects a more normalized investment landscape, providing attractive levered returns [25] Other Important Information - The Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening program, which alleviated funding pressures and improved repo spreads [12] - The company reported a 4.5% increase in book value since year-end through the week of the call [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about your approach to leverage levels post the tightening and where you find value within the coupon stack? - Management indicated that leverage was modestly increased in Q4, reflecting a positive environment, and they are comfortable with current levels despite tighter spreads [30] Question: Have you seen any surprises in prepayment reports within the specified pool portfolio? - Management noted no significant surprises, with prepayment speeds in higher coupons increasing but less impacted due to prepayment protection [33] Question: Have you continued rotating down in coupon with new capital invested? - Management confirmed a focus on lower coupons, particularly in the 3.5-5.5 range, due to attractive conditions in the TBA dollar roll market [36] Question: Can you discuss your capital structure and ability to raise capital going forward? - Management expressed confidence in their capital structure, indicating selective access to the ATM when beneficial to shareholders [42] Question: How should we think about book value sensitivity and overall upside to further spread tightening? - Management stated that while the magnitude of change in book value to spread changes remains the same, expectations for further spread tightening are reduced [56]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) is identified as one of the most undervalued REIT stocks currently available for investment, with a recent upgrade from Neutral to Buy by BTIG, which has set a price target of $25 for the shares [1]. Group 1: Investment Potential - The firm anticipates that Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) could see additional upside if mortgage-backed securities spreads compared to Treasuries, currently at approximately 115 basis points, narrow further [2]. - A more stable stock valuation for NLY is expected if spreads expand again amid rising interest rate volatility [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - BTIG has noted a decline in long-term interest rates, which may increase prepayment vulnerability in NLY's mortgage servicing rights (MSR) and non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) portfolios [3]. - The firm's assessment includes an expectation that the Trump presidency may attempt to engineer lower mortgage rates, potentially benefiting NLY [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) operates as a diversified capital manager in the mortgage finance sector, with a portfolio that includes securities, loans, and equity in the mortgage finance market [3].

4Q25 EARNINGS REPORT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust January 2026 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, regarding management's beliefs, estimates, projections and assumptions with respect to, among other things, the Company's financial results, future operations, business plans and investment strategies, as well as industry and market conditions, all of which are subject to cha ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 5% from $19.25 in the prior quarter to $20.21 as of December 31, 2025 [23] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) rose by $0.01 to $0.74, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [24] - Economic return for Q4 was 8.6%, bringing the full-year economic return to 20.2% [23][24] - Economic leverage decreased to 5.6 turns, down from the previous quarter [8][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio ended 2025 at $93 billion, an increase of nearly $6 billion quarter-over-quarter and $22 billion year-over-year, representing 62% of the firm's capital [9] - The residential credit portfolio reached $8 billion, up $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, representing approximately 19% of the firm's capital [13] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio ended at $3.8 billion, a $280 million increase quarter-over-quarter and a 15% increase year-over-year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed income markets showed strong performance, with the U.S. aggregate bond index registering the highest total return since 2020 [7] - The yield curve steepened during the quarter as short-term yields fell while long-term yields rose modestly [7] - The agency market experienced significant spread tightening following GSE's MBS purchase announcements [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase capital allocation to residential credit and MSR, targeting a long-term equity allocation of 50% Agency MBS, 30% RESI, and 20% MSR [78][79] - The diversified housing finance model is expected to continue performing well for shareholders, with a focus on maintaining market leadership across various strategies [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains solid, with the labor market showing signs of softness but limited layoffs [5][6] - Management expressed confidence in the durability of the swaps market as a hedge and the overall stability of the agency market [31][32] - The company anticipates continued growth in the non-agency market and is well-positioned to benefit from increased liquidity in the non-QM market [20][21] Other Important Information - The company raised $560 million of common equity in Q4, bringing total equity raised in 2025 to $2.9 billion [9] - The efficiency ratio improved to 1.31% for Q4, with a full-year ratio of 1.42% [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on mark-to-market book values - Management reported a 4% increase in book value, inclusive of dividend accrual [30] Question: Portfolio returns and comfort level with dividend in 2026 - Management expressed confidence in achieving mid-teens returns and stated the dividend is safe [31][32] Question: Insights on MSR portfolio and current coupon MSR - Management discussed the infrastructure set up for active participation in the MSR market and the potential for increased origination [36][40] Question: Impact of G-fee cuts on prepayment environment - Management indicated that a G-fee cut on purchase loans could be beneficial, but broad cuts might negatively impact the MBS market [46] Question: Risks that could change the low-risk environment - Management identified global fiscal risks and asset market euphoria as potential concerns [60][61] Question: Attractiveness of buying lower-coupon MBS - Management noted that valuations on low-coupon MBS are tight, and better ways to manage risk exist [68] Question: Likelihood of GSE portfolio caps being increased - Management stated uncertainty regarding the increase of caps but noted the GSEs have significant capacity [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 5% from $19.25 in the prior quarter to $20.21 as of December 31, 2025 [19] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) rose marginally to $0.74, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [7][20] - Economic return for Q4 was 8.6%, bringing the full-year economic return to 20.2% [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio ended 2025 at $93 billion in market value, an increase of nearly $6 billion quarter-over-quarter and $22 billion year-over-year [8] - The residential credit portfolio reached $8 billion in market value, up $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, representing approximately 19% of the firm's capital [10] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio ended the fourth quarter at $3.8 billion in market value, a nearly $280 million increase quarter-over-quarter and a 15% increase year-over-year [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed income markets exhibited strong performance, contributing to the highest total return in the U.S. aggregate bond index since 2020 [5] - The yield curve steepened during the quarter as short-term yields fell while long-term yields rose modestly [5] - Swap spreads continued to widen, supported by a shift from Quantitative Tightening to balance sheet expansion by the Fed [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase its allocation to residential credit and MSR, targeting a long-term weighting of 50% agency, 30% residential credit, and 20% MSR [46][47] - The diversified housing finance model is expected to continue performing well for shareholders, with a focus on opportunistic investments in the current coupon MSR market [18] - The company remains well-positioned to benefit from growth in the non-QM market and the broader non-agency market [13][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains solid, with the labor market showing signs of softness but limited layoffs [4] - The company anticipates continued strong results from its investment strategies in 2026, supported by favorable market conditions [16][18] - Risks include global fiscal challenges and potential changes in housing policy that could impact the agency markets [39][40] Other Important Information - The company raised $560 million of common equity through its ATM in Q4, bringing total equity raised in 2025 to $2.9 billion [8] - The economic leverage ratio remained low at 5.6x, down from the previous quarter [22] - Total assets available for financing reached approximately $9.4 billion, providing significant liquidity and flexibility [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on mark-to-market book values - The book value was up 4%, inclusive of the dividend accrual, with a slight increase noted [25] Question: Portfolio returns and comfort level with the dividend in 2026 - The company expects mid-teens returns and feels confident about the durability of the swaps market as a hedge [26] Question: Insights on the MSR portfolio and current coupon MSR - The company is now active in the MSR exchange platforms and is well-positioned to manage recapture effectively [27][29] Question: Impact of potential G-fee cuts on prepayment environment - A G-fee cut on purchase loans is seen as appropriate, but broad cuts could negatively impact the MBS market [31] Question: Factors that could change the current low-risk environment - Risks include global fiscal issues and asset market euphoria, which could lead to corrections [39] Question: Attractiveness of buying lower-coupon MBS - The valuation on low-coupon MBS is tight, and better ways to manage risk are available [41] Question: Likelihood of GSE portfolio caps being increased - The current capacity is far from hitting caps, and future increases remain uncertain [48]

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NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KBRA is pleased to announce the assignment of preliminary ratings to three classes of FREMF Series 2026-K176 mortgage pass-through certificates and three classes of Freddie-Mac structured pass-through certificates (SPCs), Series K-176. FREMF 2026-K176 is a $1.3 billion CMBS multi- borrower transaction. Freddie Mac will guarantee five classes of certificates issued in the underlying Series 2026-K176 securitization and will deposit the guaranteed underlying certificates into a separ ...

Dynex Capital (NYSE:DX) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 26, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlison Griffin - VP of Investor RelationsBose George - Managing DirectorByron L. Boston - Chairman and Co-CEOEric Hagen - Managing DirectorJason Weaver - Managing DirectorMike Sartori - Head of Capital MarketsRob Colligan - CFOSmriti L. Popenoe - Co-CEO and PresidentT.J. Connelly - CIOTrevor Cranston - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsDoug Harter - AnalystJason Stewart - AnalystOperatorGood day, and we ...