There are 7 agency mortgage REITs. Three of them have demonstrated that they are substantially better than the other 4. It feels like a system where investors would generally be rewarded very well by a system that could: Buy the first 3 Fund the position with proceeds from shorting the other 4. Of course, there are difficulties to this. If the investor had to supply the capital to cover their short position and to fund their long position, it would completely break the model. The system would have earned ...

Core Insights - AGNC Investment has achieved a total return of 32% in 2025, significantly outperforming the VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF, which recorded a gain of approximately 13% [1] Company Performance - AGNC Investment is recognized as one of the best performing mortgage REITs in 2025, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1] Investment Strategy - The article reflects a long-term fundamental investment approach, particularly focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, suggesting a strategic blend of long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital Corp. is making headlines in the mortgage REIT sector due to its strategic shift towards becoming an alternative asset manager, which has garnered significant investor interest [1]. Company Overview - Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is transitioning from a mortgage REIT to an alternative asset manager, indicating a significant change in its business model [1]. - The company has been under observation by investors who are eager to see how this transition unfolds [1]. Industry Context - The mortgage REIT sector has experienced various cycles, including the rise and fall of subprime mortgage REITs and a resurgence post the Great Financial Crisis [1]. - The expansion of mortgage REITs into mortgage servicing rights and other real estate-related investments reflects the evolving landscape of the industry [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article compares two high-yielding mortgage REITs, AGNC Investment and Starwood Property Trust, highlighting the differences in their investment strategies and risk profiles, with Starwood being presented as a more stable option for income investors. Group 1: AGNC Investment - AGNC Investment offers a high dividend yield of over 14%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% yield [1] - The REIT primarily invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are low-risk but also yield lower returns [3] - AGNC uses leverage to enhance returns, achieving a return on equity of around 17% in the third quarter, aligning with its cost of capital [4] - The REIT has a history of dividend cuts, reducing its payment from $0.22 per share in 2014 to $0.12 per share currently, with the last cut occurring in 2020 [6] Group 2: Starwood Property Trust - Starwood Property Trust has a diversified portfolio, with 53% in commercial real estate loans, 9% in residential loans, and 10% in infrastructure-backed loans, providing stable interest income [7] - The REIT also invests directly in properties, generating stable and steadily rising rental income [9] - Starwood's recent acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties for $2.2 billion enhances its diversification and is expected to provide stable cash flow with a 17-year average lease term and a 2.2% annual lease escalation rate [10] - Starwood has maintained a stable dividend rate for over a decade without any reductions, making it a reliable income source [11] Group 3: Investment Strategy Comparison - AGNC's focused investment strategy allows for high returns but carries more risk, as evidenced by its declining dividend history [13] - In contrast, Starwood's diversified investment strategy reduces risk and provides flexibility to adapt to market conditions, allowing it to capitalize on various investment opportunities [12]

Financial Performance - GAAP Net Income was $43 million, or $011 per share[12] - Net Asset Value was $2251 million, or $599 per share as of September 30, 2025[12] - Net Investment Income was $85 million, or $023 per share[12] - The CLO portfolio grew by 20% from $3169 million as of June 30, 2025, to $3796 million as of September 30, 2025[12, 18] - The weighted average GAAP yield for the quarter, based on amortized cost, was 155% on the total CLO portfolio[12] Portfolio Composition - CLO debt investments totaled $1855 million, with 77% in the U S and 23% in Europe[12] - CLO equity investments totaled $1940 million, with 95% in the U S and 5% in Europe[12] - The underlying loan portfolio is primarily composed of first lien, floating-rate leveraged loans, representing approximately 97% of the assets[22] - The CLO portfolio's underlying loans have a weighted average maturity of 42 years and a weighted average loan facility size of $16 billion[21, 23] Market Trends - U S CLO BBB Tranche Spread was 260, a decrease of 25 from the previous quarter[11] - U S CLO Issuance was $1596 billion, an increase of $646 billion from the previous quarter[11] - U S Trailing-Twelve-Month Default Rate was 139%, an increase of 028% from the previous quarter[11]

Core Insights - 2025 presents a favorable environment for mortgage REITs due to the Federal Reserve's policy normalization, which is expected to lower funding costs for short-term financing [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve is advancing its policy normalization, which is beneficial for mortgage REITs [1] - Lower funding costs on short-term financing are anticipated as a result of the Fed's actions [1] Group 2: Investment Approach - The investment strategy focuses on a fundamental long-term perspective, particularly in REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds [1] - The approach includes combining long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital offers a high dividend yield of 12.9%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's yield of approximately 1.2%, but this does not guarantee a stable income stream for investors [2][8]. Company Overview - Annaly Capital operates as a mortgage REIT, which is distinct from traditional REITs that own physical properties. Instead, it invests in pooled mortgages that are converted into bond-like securities [3][4]. - The value of Annaly's business is primarily derived from the mortgage securities it holds, similar to a mutual fund, and it reports its tangible book value quarterly [5]. Dividend Characteristics - Annaly's dividend payments are highly variable and consist of both interest and principal repayment, leading to a gradual decline in the company's value over time [7][8]. - The company's dividend history shows significant volatility, indicating that it may not be suitable for investors seeking consistent and reliable income [8][12]. Investment Perspective - For total return-focused investors, Annaly may enhance portfolio diversification, as its long-term total return has kept pace with the S&P 500, despite differing stock performance [10][11]. - However, for dividend investors, Annaly may not meet expectations for a reliable and growing dividend, and spending dividends rather than reinvesting them could lead to disappointment [12].

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management offers a high dividend yield of 12.7%, significantly above the S&P 500's 1.2% and the average REIT's 3.9%, attracting dividend investors [1][12]. Company Overview - Annaly Capital Management operates as a mortgage REIT, which is distinct from traditional property-owning REITs that lease physical properties [3][4]. - The company invests in pooled mortgage securities, making its value dependent on the portfolio of these securities, similar to mutual funds [4]. Investment Strategy - Annaly employs aggressive leverage using its mortgage securities as collateral, aiming for durable risk-adjusted returns across various economic cycles [5]. - While dividends are a significant aspect, total return is the primary focus, necessitating the reinvestment of dividends for optimal performance [5]. Historical Performance - Annaly has historically provided solid total returns, slightly outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [7]. - However, both dividends and share prices have shown high variability and a downward trend over the past decade [9][10]. Recent Developments - The recent increase in dividends is positive, but it does not compensate for previous cuts, leading to reduced income and capital for investors who relied solely on dividends [10]. Market Position - Annaly's market capitalization stands at $15 billion, with a current stock price of $21.65 [11][12]. - The company may appeal more to investors focused on total return and asset allocation rather than those seeking consistent dividend income [12]. Investment Considerations - For dividend investors, reinvesting dividends and selling some stock to generate income may lead to lower total returns over time [13]. - Companies with a history of consistent dividend growth may be more suitable for income-focused investors compared to Annaly [14][15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported GAAP net income of approximately $5 million or $0.08 per diluted common share, with distributable earnings of approximately $6 million or $0.10 per diluted common share, which excludes a realized loss of $1.6 million [14][15] - The net debt-to-equity ratio, excluding CECL, decreased to 1.1 times, down from 1.2 times quarter over quarter and 1.8 times year over year [16] - Outstanding borrowings were reduced to $811 million, a decrease of 9% quarter over quarter and 40% year over year [16][17] - The CECL reserve declined to $117 million, representing approximately 9% of the total outstanding principal balance of loans held for investment [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The office portfolio was reduced to $495 million, a decrease of 6% quarter over quarter and 26% year over year, driven by repayments and strategic restructuring [5] - The company closed five new loan commitments totaling $93 million across multifamily and self-storage properties during Q3, with continued momentum into Q4, closing over $270 million of loans [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The multifamily sector showed strong demand, with absorption rates significantly higher than historical averages, indicating a positive outlook despite stagnant rent growth [37] - The company noted that the office market continues to face headwinds, impacting the overall lending environment [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet while addressing risk-rated 4 and 5 loans, with a focus on capital deployment to diversify the loan portfolio [4][5] - The strategy includes leveraging the ARES Real Estate platform to participate in larger institutional assets while maintaining a focus on middle-market lending [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term earnings potential, emphasizing the importance of resolving non-accrual loans and reinvesting proceeds to expand the loan portfolio [13] - The company anticipates a return to portfolio growth in the first half of 2026, supported by a strong liquidity position and ongoing repayments [16][19] Other Important Information - The board declared a regular cash dividend of $0.15 per common share for Q4 2025, payable on January 15, 2026 [18] - The company highlighted the benefits of co-investing with other ARES Real Estate funds, resulting in a more diversified portfolio [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on the mix of new loans and market focus - Management acknowledged the small dataset affecting average loan sizes and emphasized a focus on self-storage assets while also participating in larger transactions through the ARES platform [24][25] Question: Timeline for resolving risk-rated five loans - Management indicated ongoing progress and a focus on balancing resolution speed with principal recovery, with a commitment to resolving these assets [33][34] Question: Drivers behind multifamily downgrades and market outlook - Management noted that upcoming maturity dates were significant factors in downgrades, while overall demand in the multifamily sector remains strong, with a positive outlook for the next few years [36][37]

Earnings Presentation THIRD QUARTER 2025 Hybrid mortgage REIT with extensive experience in managing residential mortgage assets through economic cycles | | cs | GAAP Book Value | Economic Book Value1 | Total Economic Return2 | Recourse Leverage3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | y e K | etri M | $13.13 | $13.69 | 2.6% | 1.9x | | | | per common share | per common share | Q3 2025 | as of Sept. 30, 2025 | | al | cs | GAAP Net Income4 | Distributable Earnings5 | Quarterly Dividend | Dividend Yield | | c ...