Core Viewpoint - Ellington Credit (EARN) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, making it a valuable tool for investors [2][4]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in buying or selling pressure that affects stock prices [4]. Company Performance and Outlook - The upgrade for Ellington Credit reflects an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to drive the stock price higher as investors respond positively to this trend [5]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Ellington Credit is projected to earn $0.90 per share, with a 4.7% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a proven track record of generating significant returns, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks [7]. - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places Ellington Credit in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For calendar Q3, the company reported GAAP net income of $0.11 per share and net investment income of $0.23 per share, with a weighted average GAAP yield for the CLO portfolio at 15.5% [9][10] - The NAV as of September 30th was $5.99 per share, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $20.1 million, resulting in a NAV-based total return for the quarter of 9.6% annualized [13][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The CLO portfolio increased by 20% to $380 million, with new purchases totaling $116 million, of which 62% was in CLO debt and 38% in CLO equity [11][12] - CLO equity represented 51% of total CLO holdings, down from 53% at the beginning of the quarter, while European CLO investments accounted for 14%, roughly unchanged quarter-over-quarter [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The credit markets rallied during the third calendar quarter, supported by a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, leading to tightened corporate credit and CLO spreads [4][5] - In the U.S. leveraged loan market, lower quality CCC-rated loans fell several points amid default concerns, while single B-rated loans advanced due to sustained CLO demand [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on increasing its portfolio allocation to mezzanine debt to gain more attractive yields while reducing exposure to new issue equity [6][7] - The strategy emphasizes active trading to capitalize on mispricings and manage risk effectively, with a preference for secondary market acquisitions over new issues [6][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that volatility and credit dispersion remain defining features of the corporate credit markets, with concerns about idiosyncratic volatility highlighted by recent bankruptcies [19][20] - The company expects elevated repricing activity and ongoing credit dispersion to create opportunities for outperformance through active portfolio management [23] Other Important Information - The company increased its credit hedge portfolio to approximately $90 million by the end of the quarter, equating to about 40% of its NAV, to provide downside protection [21] - Following the quarter end, the synthetic short position in credit hedges reached over $150 million in high-yield equivalents [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the increase in credit hedges from the end of September to the end of October? - The increase was primarily due to the growth in portfolio size and leverage, ensuring liquidity during market downturns [26][27] Question: Was the decrease in the CLO portfolio a more cautious view on credits? - The decrease was not necessarily a reflection of a cautious view but may have been due to distributions and markdowns in prices during the quarterly payment date [30][31] Question: Can you discuss the appetite for leverage and potential unsecured debt issuance? - The company is close to being fully invested and could potentially increase leverage to around $400 million, constrained by regulatory restrictions [40][41] Question: What are the predictions for CLO supply next year? - Predictions are uncertain, but there may be more reset and refinancing activities rather than new issues, depending on loan supply and market conditions [44][46] Question: How does AI impact the CLO market? - AI will affect the loan market, creating winners and losers, which raises concerns about credit dispersion and overall portfolio performance [48][50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported GAAP net income of $0.11 per share and net investment income of $0.23 per share, with a weighted average GAAP yield of 15.5% on the CLO portfolio [9][11][12] - The NAV as of September 30 was $5.99 per share, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $20.1 million, and a NAV-based total return for the quarter of 9.6% annualized [12][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The CLO portfolio increased by 20% to $380 million, with new purchases totaling $116 million, of which 62% was in CLO debt and 38% in CLO equity [11][12] - CLO equity represented 51% of total CLO holdings, down from 53% at the beginning of the quarter [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The credit markets rallied in Q3, supported by a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, leading to tightened corporate credit and CLO spreads [4][5] - In the US leveraged loan market, lower quality CCC-rated loans fell amid default concerns, while single B-rated loans advanced due to sustained CLO demand [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on increasing its allocation to mezzanine debt due to attractive yields and downside protection, while reducing exposure to new issue equity [6][7] - The strategy emphasizes active trading to capitalize on mispricings and manage risk effectively, with a preference for secondary market acquisitions [6][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that volatility and credit dispersion are defining features of the corporate credit markets, with concerns about idiosyncratic credit issues impacting performance [20][21] - The company expects elevated repricing activity and ongoing credit dispersion to create opportunities for outperformance through active portfolio management [25] Other Important Information - The company has increased its credit hedging portfolio to approximately $90 million, equating to about 40% of NAV, to provide downside protection [21][22] - Following the quarter end, the synthetic short position in credit hedges reached over $150 million as of October 31 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the increase in credit hedges from the end of September to the end of October? - The increase was primarily due to the growth in portfolio size and leverage, ensuring liquidity during market downturns [28][29] Question: Is there a more cautious view on credits reflected in the decrease of the CLO portfolio? - The decrease was attributed to quarterly payment distributions and markdowns in CLO equity prices, not necessarily a more cautious view [35][36] Question: Can you discuss the appetite for leverage and potential unsecured debt issuance? - The company is close to being fully invested and could increase leverage to around $400 million, constrained by regulatory restrictions [39][40] Question: What are the predictions for CLO supply next year? - Predictions are uncertain, but there may be more reset and refinancing activities rather than new issues, depending on market conditions [42][43] Question: How does AI impact the CLO market and credit flow? - AI may create winners and losers in the loan market, affecting CLO equity returns and increasing concerns about credit dispersion [45][46]

Financial Performance - GAAP Net Income was $43 million, or $011 per share[12] - Net Asset Value was $2251 million, or $599 per share as of September 30, 2025[12] - Net Investment Income was $85 million, or $023 per share[12] - The CLO portfolio grew by 20% from $3169 million as of June 30, 2025, to $3796 million as of September 30, 2025[12, 18] - The weighted average GAAP yield for the quarter, based on amortized cost, was 155% on the total CLO portfolio[12] Portfolio Composition - CLO debt investments totaled $1855 million, with 77% in the U S and 23% in Europe[12] - CLO equity investments totaled $1940 million, with 95% in the U S and 5% in Europe[12] - The underlying loan portfolio is primarily composed of first lien, floating-rate leveraged loans, representing approximately 97% of the assets[22] - The CLO portfolio's underlying loans have a weighted average maturity of 42 years and a weighted average loan facility size of $16 billion[21, 23] Market Trends - U S CLO BBB Tranche Spread was 260, a decrease of 25 from the previous quarter[11] - U S CLO Issuance was $1596 billion, an increase of $646 billion from the previous quarter[11] - U S Trailing-Twelve-Month Default Rate was 139%, an increase of 028% from the previous quarter[11]

Core Insights - Ellington Credit (EARN) reported quarterly earnings of $0.23 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, but down from $0.28 per share a year ago [1][2] - The company achieved revenues of $11.88 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.88% and significantly up from $4.75 million year-over-year [3] - The stock has underperformed, losing approximately 21.9% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.5% [4] Earnings Performance - The earnings surprise for the recent quarter was +15.00%, following a previous quarter where the company reported earnings of $0.18 per share against an expectation of $0.21, resulting in a surprise of -14.29% [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ellington Credit has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times [2] Revenue Insights - The company has also topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters [3] - Current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.24 on revenues of $12.22 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.88 on revenues of $42.14 million [8] Industry Context - The REIT and Equity Trust industry, to which Ellington Credit belongs, is currently ranked in the top 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [9] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [6] Future Outlook - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for assessing future stock performance, with management's commentary on the earnings call expected to influence immediate price movements [4][5] - The current favorable trend in estimate revisions has resulted in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, suggesting it is expected to outperform the market in the near future [7]

Financial Performance - Ellington Credit Company reported a net investment income of $8.5 million, or $0.23 per share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2025[8]. - Adjusted Net Investment Income for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $8,520,000, up from $6,596,000 in the previous quarter, representing a 29% increase[27]. - Net Investment Income for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $8,485,000, compared to $6,521,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, indicating a 30% growth[27]. - Adjusted Net Investment Income per share increased to $0.23 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, from $0.18 in the previous quarter, reflecting a 28% rise[27]. - Non-recurring expenses related to strategic transformation were $35,000 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, down from $75,000 in the previous quarter[27]. Asset and Investment Portfolio - The company's CLO portfolio grew to $379.6 million, with CLO debt investments at $185.5 million and CLO equity investments at $194.0 million[8]. - Total assets amounted to $415.74 million, with total liabilities of $190.65 million, resulting in a net asset value of $225.09 million[19]. - The investment portfolio generated $16.2 million in recurring cash distributions, equating to $0.43 per share[8]. - The weighted average GAAP yield for the CLO portfolio was 15.5% based on amortized cost[8]. - The company executed 92 distinct CLO trades during the quarter, purchasing $115.7 million and selling $29.2 million of CLO investments[8]. Distributions and Shareholder Returns - The net asset value (NAV) per share was $5.99 as of September 30, 2025, reflecting distributions of $0.24 per share for the quarter[8]. - The company declared recurring cash distributions of $0.08 per share for each month from July to November 2025[7]. - The Board of Trustees considers various factors, including earnings and liquidity, when setting distributions[26]. Management Outlook and Strategy - Management expects elevated loan repricing activity and ongoing credit dispersion to create opportunities for outperformance through active management[5]. - The company maintains a balanced mix of mezzanine and equity tranches, nearly a 50/50 split, to position for market resilience[5]. Conference Call and Forward-Looking Statements - The company will host a conference call on November 20, 2025, to discuss financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025[21]. - A dial-in replay of the conference call will be available from November 20, 2025, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time until November 27, 2025[21]. - Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including changes in interest rates and market conditions[22]. - The company emphasizes that Adjusted Net Investment Income is a non-GAAP financial measure and may differ from similar measures used by peers[25]. Share Count - The weighted average shares outstanding increased slightly to 37,563,048 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, compared to 37,559,195 in the previous quarter[27].

Group 1 - Ellington Credit Company (NYSE: EARN) transitioned its legal structure from a REIT to a CEF earlier in the year, indicating a strategic shift in its investment approach [1] - The company has a focus on providing transparency and analytics in capital markets instruments and trades, particularly in CEFs, ETFs, and Special Situations [1] - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA), with over 20 years of investment experience, aims to deliver high annualized returns with a low volatility profile [1]

Group 1 - David A. Johnson is the founder and principal of Endurance Capital Management, a New Jersey Limited Liability Company, with over 30 years of experience in investing [1] - The investment strategy includes stocks, bonds, options, ETFs, REITs, real estate, closed-end funds, hedge funds, and private credit [1] - David holds a Master of Science (MS) Degree in Finance, a Certificate in Financial Planning, and an MBA from Fordham University [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP net income of $0.27 per share and adjusted net investment income of $0.18 per share for calendar Q2 [10] - The annualized economic return was nearly 20% net, and NAV per share grew [4] - The NAV at quarter end was $6.12 per share, with a NAV-based total return of 19.7% annualized [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The CLO portfolio grew by 27% quarter over quarter to $317 million, with new purchases of $91 million [14] - Contributions to net investment income came from U.S. CLO debt ($0.12), European CLO debt ($0.02), U.S. CLO equity ($0.02), and a penny loss on European CLO equity [10][11] - The company disposed of all remaining mortgage positions shortly after the REIT conversion, with minimal NAV impact [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Credit spreads on U.S. corporate high yield and investment grade bonds tightened overall during the quarter, with May and June's recovery offsetting April's weakness [5] - In Europe, leveraged loan prices posted modest gains but lagged behind the U.S. [12] - The CLO market saw high issuance levels historically, but lower than recent quarters due to intra-quarter volatility [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on CLO investments, benefiting from the closed-end fund structure, which enhances tax efficiency and allows for a concentrated investment strategy [9] - There is an emphasis on increasing exposure to CLO mezzanine positions and shifting focus to the secondary market for better relative value [21][22] - Plans to issue long-term unsecured debt later this year to increase leverage and enhance earnings growth [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market environment remains uncertain due to tariff policies, which could create winners and losers among sectors [42] - The company expects net investment income to cover its distribution rate starting in September, indicating confidence in future performance [8][26] - The management believes that the portfolio is well-balanced with core positions for stability and others offering upside potential [23] Other Important Information - The company maintained a cash and cash equivalents total of $36.6 million at quarter end [17] - The CLO portfolio is heavily weighted towards first lien floating rate leveraged loans, with no single sector exceeding 11% [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why haven't AAA spreads fully retraced while underlying loan spreads have? - Management indicated that there is less demand for AAA CLOs compared to earlier in the year, which has affected pricing [31][32] Question: Would the allocation remain similar to June, leaning more towards debt than equity? - Management suggested that if the market conditions remain challenging, the allocation would likely continue to favor debt over equity [35] Question: Will CLO issuance trends reverse by year-end? - Management noted that new issuance depends on the attractiveness of loan versus debt spreads, and it is uncertain if the market will see a significant increase in new issuance [40] Question: Is there an increased risk perception for equity tranches? - Management acknowledged that equity tranches carry more risk due to their first-loss position, especially in light of tariff uncertainties [42] Question: What is the updated quarter-to-date NAV estimate? - The company reported a NAV estimate around $6.16 as of July 31 [46]

Financial Performance - GAAP Net Income was $102 million or $027 per share[11] - NAV-Based Total Return was 197% annualized[11] - Net Investment Income was $65 million or $017 per share[11] - Adjusted Net Investment Income was $66 million or $018 per share[11] - Net Asset Value was $2297 million or $612 per share as of June 30 2025[11] Investment Portfolio - The CLO portfolio grew by 27% to $3169 million as of June 30 2025 from $2499 million as of March 31 2025[11, 18] - CLO debt investments totaled $1489 million with 79% in the U S and 21% in Europe[11] - CLO equity investments totaled $1680 million with 92% in the U S and 8% in Europe[11] - The company purchased $906 million of CLO investments and sold $159 million[11] - The weighted average GAAP yield for the quarter based on amortized cost was 156% on the total CLO portfolio[11] Distributions - The company received $159 million in recurring cash distributions from the investment portfolio or $042 per share[11] - The distribution rate was 172% based on the August 18 2025 closing stock price of $559 and a monthly distribution of $008 per common share declared on August 7 2025[11]