March Nymex natural gas (NGH26) on Thursday closed higher by +0.044 (+1.27%). March nat-gas prices settled higher on Thursday amid a record withdrawal of nat-gas storage.  The EIA reported Thursday that nat-gas inventories fell -360 bcf in the week ended January 30, the largest weekly withdrawal from US gas storage sites on record and well above the five-year average for the week of -190 bcf. More News from Barchart Expectations of below-normal US temperatures, which will boost nat-gas heating demand, ...

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged over 60% in three days, reaching a three-year high due to forecasts of Arctic weather impacting the US, increasing heating demand and potentially disrupting production [1] - Texas is expected to experience frigid conditions, raising the risk of temporary outages and reduced natural gas production, prompting disaster declarations from the governor [2] Price Movements - February natural gas closed up by +0.170 (+3.49%) on Thursday, continuing a parabolic rally [1] - Weekly EIA report indicated a larger-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories, with a decrease of -120 billion cubic feet (bcf) compared to expectations of -98 bcf [3][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 bcf/day from 109.11 bcf/day, supporting price stability [4] - Current US dry gas production stands at 110.3 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +9.0% [5] Demand and Inventory Levels - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 112.6 bcf/day, a decrease of -15.0% year-over-year [5] - Natural gas inventories are currently up +6.0% year-over-year and +6.1% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US surged to an 8.5-month high due to expectations of colder weather, which is likely to increase heating demand [2] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for 2025 natural gas production, indicating a bearish trend for prices [3] - Record high natural gas production and demand were reported, with significant year-on-year increases [4] Group 1: Price Movements - January natural gas prices closed up by +0.292 (+6.41%) on Friday [1] - The rally in natural gas prices is attributed to colder weather forecasts in the US, particularly in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions [2] Group 2: Production and Demand - The EIA increased its forecast for US natural gas production in 2025 by +1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - US dry gas production reached a record 113.4 bcf/day, reflecting an increase of +8.3% year-on-year [4] - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 98.6 bcf/day, up +9.2% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Inventory and Storage - Natural gas inventories fell by -11 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending November 21, which was a larger draw than market expectations [6] - As of November 21, natural gas inventories were down -0.8% year-on-year and +4.2% above the 5-year seasonal average [6] - European gas storage was reported to be 77% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 88% [6] Group 4: Rig Count - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs increased by +3 to 130 rigs, marking a 2.25-year high [7] - The current rig count has risen from a 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024 [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a decline due to warmer weather forecasts in the US, which may reduce heating demand [1] - Weekly natural gas storage reported a larger decline than expected, indicating potential supply constraints [2][4] - Increased US natural gas production is exerting downward pressure on prices, with production levels near record highs [3] Price Movements - December Nymex natural gas closed down by -0.076 (-1.67%) [1] - Initial price increase was observed before settling lower due to weather forecasts [1] Storage and Supply - EIA reported a decline of -14 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ended November 14, exceeding expectations of -12 bcf [2][4] - Current inventories are down -0.6% year-on-year but are +3.8% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supply [4] Production and Demand - EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US natural gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day [3] - Active US natural gas rigs are at a two-year high, contributing to increased production [3] - Lower-48 state gas production was reported at 110.1 bcf/day (+7.6% year-on-year) [3] - Electricity output in the US rose by +5.33% year-on-year, which may support gas prices [3] European Context - As of November 18, European gas storage was 81% full, compared to a five-year seasonal average of 90% [4]