Workflow
New Energy Vehicle
icon
Search documents
摩根士丹利:中国股票策略-反内卷信息提振 A 股市场情绪
摩根· 2025-07-11 02:22
Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for A-shares over offshore markets due to their lagging performance year-to-date and more reasonable valuations compared to offshore markets [12]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment for A-shares has improved, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) rising to 78% and the simple MSASI to 65% [2][6]. - The Chinese government has intensified its anti-involution message to address overcapacity issues in sectors like solar, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, near-term volatility is expected to rise, and the report cautions against a beta-focused strategy in the offshore market [12]. Summary by Sections Investor Sentiment - A-share investor sentiment improved with the weighted MSASI increasing by 7 percentage points to 78% and the simple MSASI rising by 8 percentage points to 65% compared to the previous cutoff date [2]. - Average daily turnover for ChiNext and A-shares decreased by 11% and 7% respectively, while equity futures and Northbound turnover increased by 7% and 9% [2]. Market Inflows - Southbound markets experienced net inflows of US$2.7 billion from July 2 to July 9, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching US$95.8 billion and US$0.5 billion respectively [3]. Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a deflation of -0.4% month-over-month in June, driven by weak construction activities and tariff impacts, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.1% year-over-year from -0.1% in May [5]. Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the need for a tailored approach to the anti-involution initiative, as different sectors have varying competitive landscapes, ESG considerations, and market sizes [4]. - The implementation of policies to rebalance and reflation the economy remains challenging due to institutional inertia [5].