Asia-Pacific Research Office Markets Office Highlights Q3 2025 Prime rental growth in the region lost momentum to remain largely unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, down from the marginal 0.2% registered in the second quarter. The decline in Chinese mainland markets accelerated amid another supply-heavy quarter. Rental growth in Southeast Asia also flatlined, as landlords continued to prioritise maintaining or raising occupancy levels. Landlords in India and Australia, in contrast, remained optimistic. ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Lagos real estate market, highlighting its role as a major economic pillar in Nigeria, particularly after the GDP rebasing exercise [4][15]. Core Insights - The Nigerian economy is transitioning towards stabilization and growth, with a notable GDP growth of 3.98% in Q3 2025, driven by a resilient non-oil sector [5][15]. - Real estate has emerged as the third-largest sector in the rebased economy, contributing 13.36% to total real GDP, underscoring its structural importance [9][15]. - Inflation has moderated significantly, decreasing from 25.3% in June to 15.15% by December 2025, which is expected to support market stability [12][15]. - The naira has stabilized within a managed band, supported by a significant increase in external reserves, which reached $45.45 billion by December 2025 [13][15]. - The enactment of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 is anticipated to enhance the macro environment for real estate, promoting formal agreements between landlords and tenants [14][30]. Economic Update - The GDP rebasing exercise revealed a larger and more diversified economy, with nominal GDP revised upward by 41.7% [4]. - Real estate's contribution to GDP highlights its critical role in national wealth, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 3.50% [5][9]. - The construction sector outperformed the broader economy with a real growth rate of 5.57%, driven by public infrastructure projects [11]. Residential Market Review - Residential rents in Lagos continued to rise despite moderated inflation, driven by strong demand and constrained supply [22][32]. - Government interventions have facilitated the delivery of 653 residential units through public-private partnerships [23][32]. - The launch of the MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund offering long-term loans at 9.75% indicates ongoing public sector efforts to address housing shortages [24][32]. Retail Market Review - The retail sector has seen limited new development, with a gradual reconfiguration of tenant mix and retail strategies [33][39]. - Indigenous convenience-focused brands have gained traction, reflecting a shift towards cost-efficient retail formats [33][39]. - The average prime retail rents in Lagos are aligned with several African peers, indicating competitive pricing [35]. Office Market Review - The Lagos office market is showing signs of recovery, with Grade A occupancy levels reaching 73% [40][47]. - Rental performance has softened, particularly for prime assets, with effective rents adjusting downward to support occupancy [41][47]. - The emergence of new office developments in Ikeja indicates continued demand for modern office spaces [43][47]. Industrial Market Review - The industrial sector remains resilient, supported by logistics demand and manufacturing activity within Special Economic Zones [49][56]. - Prime industrial rents vary significantly based on infrastructure quality, with Grade A demand accelerating in well-serviced areas [51][56]. - The demand for warehouse spaces has grown approximately 25% year-on-year, reflecting the sector's expansion [74][56]. Infrastructure and Data Centre Market Review - Key infrastructure projects, including the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway and the Lagos Green Line Rail Project, are advancing, enhancing connectivity [57][63]. - The data centre market in Lagos is valued at approximately $1.4 billion, indicating strong investor interest and capacity additions [59][63]. Port Harcourt Real Estate Market - Port Harcourt's real estate market is driven by the oil sector, with residential demand growing at an estimated 12-15% [65][87]. - The retail sector has expanded significantly, driven by a rising middle class and consumer preferences for modern shopping environments [67][87]. - Industrial land prices have risen 10-20% over three years, with demand for warehouses increasing by about 25% year-on-year [74][87]. Abuja Real Estate Market - Abuja's real estate market is characterized by high demand and strong capital appreciation, with average property prices projected to rise by 10-15% annually in prime areas [81][98]. - The market is shifting towards integrated, technology-enabled commercial spaces, reflecting evolving tenant needs [85][98]. - The persistent housing deficit and urbanization are driving demand for middle-to-low-income housing in satellite towns [92][98].

Core Viewpoint - SL Green Realty's shares have significantly declined this year due to weaker earnings and a shift in its dividend policy, making the stock appear undervalued, but the 7.8% dividend yield carries associated risks [1] Company Summary - SL Green Realty is primarily focused on office properties in Manhattan, and its stock has seen a notable drop in value this year [1] - The company has adjusted its dividend policy, which has contributed to investor concerns regarding its financial stability [1] Financial Performance - The decline in SL Green's share price is attributed to weaker earnings reported this year, indicating potential challenges in its operational performance [1] - The current dividend yield stands at 7.8%, which may attract investors looking for income but also reflects underlying risks associated with the company's financial health [1]

Core Insights - The shift in investor sentiment towards warehousing and logistics indicates a structural transformation in India's real estate landscape, moving from traditional office and retail investments to logistics platforms as the dominant strategy [1][21] - Institutional interest in warehousing has transitioned from exploratory to conviction-led, highlighting its importance as strategic economic infrastructure [5][21] - The pandemic has reshaped supply-chain thinking, leading to increased demand for resilient, India-focused supply chains and higher inventory buffers [16][22] Warehousing and Logistics Growth - Industrial and warehousing leasing reached a record high in 2025, with absorption hitting 36.9 million sq ft, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [8][21] - Delhi NCR and Chennai emerged as the most active industrial hubs, accounting for 24% and 22% of annual absorption respectively [8][10] - Q4 2025 saw a significant uptick in leasing activity, with 10.4 million sq ft absorbed, driven by large transactions and expansion-led demand [9][21] Demand Drivers - The demand for logistics assets is primarily driven by third-party logistics (3PL) companies, engineering firms, and e-commerce players, with 3PL accounting for about 32% of total leasing [11][21] - Large-format transactions, such as those by ScootsyLogistics and Amazon, underscore occupier confidence and the growing scale of operations [11][21] - The shift towards modern logistics facilities is influenced by the need for higher ceilings, better flooring standards, and integrated technology systems [15][22] Structural Changes - India's rapid digital transformation has altered consumption and distribution models, expanding e-commerce penetration into Tier-II and Tier-III cities [14][22] - Government policy initiatives, including infrastructure upgrades and logistics corridor development, have improved connectivity and reduced transportation bottlenecks [16][22] - The formalisation of the economy has favored organized logistics players, leading to a preference for large, compliant facilities over fragmented storage units [17][22] Investment Landscape - Institutional investors are increasingly comfortable with the risk-return profile of logistics assets, which offer stable cash flows and long-term leases [18][22] - Warehousing has evolved from a tactical allocation to a strategic investment, driven by structural transformation in the economy [18][22] - The growth of e-commerce and the need for modern logistics infrastructure align with India's manufacturing ambitions and global supply chain integration [19][22] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive outlook, challenges such as land acquisition complexities, regulatory approvals, and infrastructure gaps may hinder project execution [20][22] - Potential rental growth moderation could occur if supply outpaces demand in specific micro-markets, and increased competition may compress yields over time [20][22]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a sell-off, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declining by more than 1% on Thursday [1] - Concerns about AI disruption are affecting various industries, including software, financials, office real estate, and logistics [1] Company Insights - Alphabet's stock increased after announcing a significant upgrade to its Gemini 3 Deep Think reasoning model, which can now tackle modern science and engineering challenges, indicating its leadership in AI development [1] - The company made a small purchase of Alphabet shares and is considering further investments during market weakness [1] Housing Market Data - Existing home sales in January fell by 8.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.91 million, which is 4.4% lower than January 2025 [1] - The January report may dampen expectations for a housing market recovery, but the impact of unusually cold weather is noted as a complicating factor [1] - The downtick in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to around 6.1% in January from 6.19% in December is not expected to significantly influence sales trends [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming earnings reports are expected from several companies, including Coinbase, Arista Networks, and Moderna [1] - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to be released on Friday [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core FFO per diluted share for Q4 2025 was $0.35, down from $0.37 in Q4 2024, attributed to the sale of two projects and higher net interest expense [26] - AFFO generated in Q4 2025 was approximately $18.7 million [26] - The company completed refinancing activities, issuing $400 million in new bonds and repurchasing $245 million of higher coupon bonds, resulting in annual savings of approximately $0.04 per share [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total leasing volume for 2025 reached 2.5 million sq ft, representing about 16% of the portfolio, the highest in over a decade [8] - In Q4 2025, approximately 679,000 sq ft of leasing was completed, with 70% related to new tenants, leading to a year-end lease percentage of 89.6%, an increase of 120 basis points over 2025 [10] - Rental rates for leases executed in Q4 increased by approximately 12% on a cash basis and 21% on an accrual basis [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of Fortune 100 companies requiring a five-day workweek in the office rose to about 55%, compared to 5% two years ago [6] - Positive absorption was reported in 50 markets in 2025, up from 33 in 2024, marking the highest number since 2019 [6] - Sublet availability has declined, with only 4 million sq ft of new office space delivered in Q4 2025, the lowest since 2012 [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its portfolio of recently renovated, well-located properties to drive sustainable earnings growth in 2026 and beyond [9] - The focus is on maintaining high occupancy rates and increasing rental rates, with asking rents still significantly below new construction costs [9] - The company plans to stabilize its out-of-service portfolio by the end of 2026, contributing to future FFO growth [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the occupancy trough occurred in Q4 2025, with expectations for mid-single-digit organic FFO growth in 2026 and 2027 [12] - The company is optimistic about the demand environment, driven by large users returning to the market and a focus on upgrading office experiences [50] - Management highlighted the unique positioning of their portfolio, which is not heavily reliant on the tech sector, allowing for continued demand from various industries [51] Other Important Information - The company has two land parcels under contract, expected to generate over $30 million in gross proceeds upon closing [24] - The 2026 annual Core FFO guidance is projected to be in the range of $1.47-$1.53 per diluted share, reflecting an increase from 2025 [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the breakdown of renewal versus new leasing in the 1.7 million-2 million sq ft target? - Management indicated it is roughly 50/50 between new activity and renewal activity [34] Question: What is the potential cap on lease percentage given structural vacancies in some markets? - Management believes they can push lease percentages upwards of 91%-92% across the portfolio, despite some challenges in specific markets [40] Question: What type of product is the company targeting for disposition in 2026? - Management noted they are looking to monetize non-core assets, particularly in Houston, and are considering dispositions related to the New York City lease [44] Question: What is driving the robust demand environment across the portfolio? - Management highlighted the trend of users upgrading their office experiences and the strong demand from various industries, not just tech [50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core FFO per diluted share for Q4 2025 was $0.35, down from $0.37 in Q4 2024, attributed to the sale of two projects and higher net interest expenses [26][27] - AFFO generated in Q4 2025 was approximately $18.7 million [26] - The company expects 2026 annual Core FFO guidance in the range of $1.47-$1.53 per diluted share, an increase of $0.08 at the midpoint over 2025 results [28][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Piedmont leased 2.5 million sq ft in 2025, approximately 16% of the portfolio, the highest leasing volume in over a decade [8] - In Q4 2025, approximately 679,000 sq ft of leasing was completed, with 70% related to new tenants, resulting in a year-end lease percentage of 89.6%, an increase of 120 basis points over 2025 [10][11] - Rental rates for leases executed in Q4 increased approximately 12% on a cash basis and 21% on an accrual basis [11][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of Fortune 100 companies requiring a five-day workweek in the office rose to about 55%, compared to 5% two years ago [5] - Positive absorption was reported in 50 markets in 2025, up from 33 in 2024, marking the highest number since 2019 [5] - Sublet availability has declined, with only 4 million sq ft of new office space delivered in Q4 2025, the lowest since 2012 [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging its portfolio of recently renovated, well-located, and amenity-rich properties to drive sustainable earnings growth [9][32] - The strategy includes a hospitality-infused service model and a focus on best-in-class assets to attract large space consumers [5][9] - The company aims to achieve mid-single-digit organic FFO growth in 2026 and 2027, supported by increased occupancy and rental rates [12][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the occupancy trough occurred in Q4 2025, with expectations for significant same-store NOI growth in 2026 due to historic leasing success [12] - The company anticipates a robust leasing environment driven by strong demand and limited new supply, with expectations for continued rental rate increases [9][51] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to achieve a lease percentage upwards of 91%-92% in the future, driven by unique product offerings and market positioning [41] Other Important Information - The company completed refinancing activities in Q4, issuing $400 million in new bonds and repurchasing $245 million of higher coupon bonds, resulting in annual savings of approximately $0.04 per share [27] - The out-of-service portfolio was 62% leased at year-end 2025, with expectations for stabilization by the end of 2026 [10][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the breakdown of renewal versus new leasing in the 1.7-2 million sq ft guidance? - Management indicated it is roughly 50/50 between new activity and renewal activity [35] Question: What is the potential cap on lease percentage given structural vacancies in some markets? - Management believes they can lease up challenging spaces beyond 95% in unique environments, but acknowledged some challenges in specific markets like D.C. [38][40] Question: What types of products are targeted for disposition in 2026? - Management noted they are looking to monetize non-core assets, particularly in Houston, and are considering dispositions related to the New York City lease [44][45] Question: What is driving the robust demand environment across the portfolio? - Management highlighted the trend of users upgrading their office experiences and the strong conviction around workplace strategies as key drivers of demand [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported FFO of $0.90 per share for Q4 2025, including $0.06 from land sale gains, resulting in a full-year FFO of $3.48 per share, which is 2% higher than the midpoint of the original outlook for 2025 [8][24] - The initial 2026 FFO outlook is projected to be 5.7% higher at the midpoint compared to the initial 2025 outlook [6][8] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $28.7 million, or $0.26 per share [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased 526,000 sq ft of second-generation space in Q4 2025, including 221,000 sq ft of new leases [8] - The development pipeline is now 78% pre-leased, up from 72% last quarter and 56% one year ago [9] - Cash rent spreads were positive, with GAAP rent spreads in the mid-teens, and net effective rents were 20% higher than in 2024 [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company highlighted strong demand in its core Sun Belt markets, with limited new supply and increasing rental rates [5][6] - Charlotte generated more nominal jobs than any other metro area except New York City in 2025, indicating strong economic growth [20] - Dallas and Nashville also showed significant net absorption and rising asking rents, with Dallas being noted as the number one market to watch [22][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in high-quality office and BBD locations in the Sun Belt, with a projected NOI growth potential of $50 million-$60 million across eight buildings [6][7] - Future investments are expected to drive additional growth, with approximately $800 million invested over the past 12 months [7] - The company plans to complete $190 million-$210 million of additional dispositions by mid-year 2026 to fund acquisitions and improve portfolio quality [16][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth potential due to strong fundamentals in the Sun Belt markets and a favorable leasing environment [5][18] - The company anticipates occupancy gains of roughly 200 basis points from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026 [6] - Management noted that the current economic environment is conducive to well-capitalized landlords, with pricing power shifting towards them [17] Other Important Information - The company has filed a new S-3 shelf registration statement with the SEC, allowing for future capital market transactions [32] - The company expects to fund recent acquisition activities on a leverage-neutral basis, primarily through the sale of non-core assets [15][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: When does the company expect to realize elevated growth rates from capital recycling? - Management indicated that the impact on 2026 numbers is one-time in nature, with growth expected to be more significant in 2027 [34][35] Question: How is demand for the remaining leasing in the development pipeline? - Management reported strong demand, with continued progress in leasing throughout 2025 [37][38] Question: Has the company seen any impact from AI-related layoffs? - Management stated that they have not observed any significant impact from AI-related layoffs, with demand for office space remaining strong [41][42] Question: What is the expected cash flow outlook given elevated CapEx? - Management expects 2026 spending to be lower than 2025 levels, which should improve cash flow in the long term [46][48] Question: What percentage of the $200 million non-core sales is related to land sales? - Management clarified that none of the $200 million in non-core sales is related to land sales, which are expected later in the year [51][52] Question: What is the leasing target to grow occupancy? - Management indicated that approximately 700,000-750,000 sq ft of new leasing is needed to achieve the occupancy target by the end of 2026 [71][75]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China property sector, but it emphasizes the need for a shift in strategy and a focus on quality and efficiency over scale, indicating a cautious outlook for the near term while recognizing long-term opportunities [3][5][12]. Core Insights - China's real estate market is undergoing a significant structural shift, moving away from reliance on scale and rising prices to a focus on fundamental value and purpose [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of adapting to a new economic landscape characterized by resilience and productivity, with a call for each asset class to redefine its role [12][13]. - Despite current challenges, the long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy, including industrial upgrading and domestic consumption potential, remain strong [5][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow at a slower pace, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 [11]. - Private consumption is expected to outpace overall GDP growth, reflecting a shift towards domestic demand [7]. - Policy settings are supportive, with low loan prime rates and bond yields anticipated to continue [8]. Office Sector - The office market is experiencing falling rents and high vacancy rates, necessitating a focus on quality and tenant experience [18][27]. - Landlords are encouraged to prioritize integrated layouts and operational efficiency to attract tenants [19][21]. - The future of the office market will depend on adaptability and the ability to provide value beyond mere space [26][30]. Retail Sector - Retail indicators show a divergence in performance, with prime districts needing to offer more than just location to attract consumers [33][39]. - The focus is shifting towards creating community-oriented spaces that enhance consumer experience rather than just transactional environments [41][43]. - New retail openings are expected to rise significantly in 2026, indicating a potential recovery phase [42]. Logistics Sector - The logistics and warehousing sector is closely tied to consumer spending and industrial upgrading, with a focus on tenant retention and operational efficiency [47][50]. - The market is rewarding facilities that enable automation and efficiency, reflecting a shift in tenant expectations [54][58]. - Owners are encouraged to modernize portfolios to meet evolving demands from occupiers [56]. Residential Sector - The residential market is stabilizing, with sales volumes remaining weak but not collapsing, as buyers become more selective [70][72]. - Developers are focusing on quality and trust-building to navigate current market conditions [71][73]. - Leasing conditions are improving, with a shift towards more professional management and differentiated product offerings [64][72]. Investment Market - Investment volumes are at decade-low levels, with expectations for subdued activity in 2026 [76][78]. - The market is beginning to recognize asset values more clearly, with a shift towards equity-driven models and REITs gaining prominence [88][90]. - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality core assets that generate stable cash flow [86][100].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the South East office market, with a focus on high-quality, amenity-rich assets, suggesting a favorable investment environment for the coming years [5][15]. Core Insights - 2025 is projected to achieve the highest annual take-up figures since 2019, with a total of 3.4 million sq ft leased, reflecting an 8% increase compared to 2024 [7]. - The demand is primarily driven by the Financial and Business Services sector, accounting for 26% of total take-up, followed closely by the TMT sector at 23% [7]. - Grade A accommodation represented 79% of all take-up in 2025, highlighting a continued flight to quality among occupiers [7]. - Availability in the market decreased to 16.2 million sq ft, with a notable contraction in prime segments [7]. - The development pipeline remains limited, with 1.8 million sq ft under construction, primarily concentrated in Cambridge and West London [7][15]. Summary by Sections Leasing Overview - Total take-up for 2025 reached 3,374,313 sq ft, which is 8% higher than the five-year average [4]. - Active demand at year-end totaled 3.95 million sq ft, with Financial and Business Services again representing 26% of this demand [7]. - Availability decreased to 16,181,056 sq ft, a 12.3% reduction compared to the five-year average [4]. Investment Overview - Investment volumes for 2025 were £1.3 billion, which is 43% lower than the ten-year average [9]. - The market saw 112 deals completed in 2025, which is 15% higher than the ten-year average [15]. - Prime office yields in the South East remained at 7.00%, indicating attractive opportunities for investors [15]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in rental prices, with 40% of markets in the South East registering an uplift, particularly in Cambridge and Oxford, which saw rental growth of 27% and 16% respectively [7]. - The overall vacancy rate improved to 10.2% in Q4 2025, down from 10.5% in Q4 2024, with Grade A vacancy decreasing to 6.6% [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality space, as evidenced by the strong demand for Grade A accommodation [7][15].