Labor Market Overview - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of official labor market data, leading to reliance on alternative metrics to assess current conditions [1][2] - Various indicators suggest a weak but not collapsing labor market, with expectations of a decline of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% if the Bureau of Labor Statistics had released its report [2] Employment Trends - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and low firing, indicating high uncertainty among businesses [3] - The unemployment rate remains low at around 4.4%, with little change observed in layoffs and hiring rates [3] Small Business Employment - Larger firms continue to add workers, while smaller businesses are reducing their workforce, reflecting a trend of conservatism among small business owners [5][6] - ADP reported a loss of 34,000 jobs in October for businesses employing fewer than 250 people, indicating a steady erosion in employment for smaller firms [6] Job Creation and Layoffs - ADP reported that companies added only 42,000 jobs in October, which, while better than expected, still reflects weak hiring [7] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 153,074 announced job cuts in October, the highest for that month in 22 years [7] - The Institute for Supply Management's employment indexes for services and manufacturing sectors indicate more companies are planning to hold or cut staffing levels, with readings below 50% signaling contraction [7] Wage Growth Disparities - Bank of America reported a year-over-year payroll growth of 0.5% in October, with significant disparities in wage growth: higher earners at 3.7%, middle earners at 2%, and lower income at only 1% [7] Job Openings and Small Business Indicators - Job search site Indeed reported a decline in job openings, reaching the lowest level since February 2021 [7] - Homebase indicated a further decline in small business employment, with a 2.9% drop in the "employees working" indicator from January levels [7]