Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is undergoing a significant business turnaround after experiencing a decline in stock value, with early signs of improvement in its operations and financial metrics [1][6]. Group 1: Business Operations - UPS operates a complex, capital-intensive package delivery service, which includes a vast network of retail stores, sorting and distribution facilities, and a large fleet of delivery vehicles [2]. - The company has been focusing on streamlining operations and prioritizing more profitable customers, which includes reducing reliance on Amazon, a key customer with low profit margins [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, UPS reported a 5.5% increase in revenue per piece in the U.S. market, despite a 0.8% decline in overall revenue for that division [7]. - The third quarter showed further improvement, with revenue per piece in the U.S. jumping 9.8% while overall revenue fell 2.6%, and the adjusted operating margin improved by 110 basis points year over year [8]. Group 3: Market Reaction - UPS's share price has increased by 24% over the past three months, indicating that investors are optimistic about the company's turnaround efforts [9]. - The current stock price is around $107.98, with a market capitalization of $92 billion and a dividend yield of 6.08%, although the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100% [8][10].

Core Insights - FedEx Corp. reported a better-than-expected first quarter for fiscal year 2026, driven by strong U.S. domestic growth and significant cost-cutting measures [1] - The company anticipates a $1 billion headwind for the full year due to the elimination of the de minimis trade exemption, impacting international trade and shipping volumes [1][2] Financial Performance - FedEx's first-quarter revenue reached $22.2 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $21.67 billion, with adjusted earnings of $3.83 per share, exceeding expectations of $3.62 per share [5] - The company expects revenue growth of 4% to 6% year-over-year for fiscal 2026, with full-year adjusted earnings projected between $17.20 to $19 per diluted share [6] Domestic vs. International Performance - U.S. domestic package services experienced a 5% increase in average daily volume year-over-year, contrasting with challenges in international shipping due to the de minimis policy [4] - The removal of the de minimis exemption, which allowed goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, is significantly affecting FedEx's Asia-to-U.S. shipping lanes [2][3] Strategic Developments - FedEx secured major new business wins, including being named the primary national parcel carrier for Best Buy and onboarding larger, heavier packages from Amazon, expected to be completed by the third quarter [5] - The company is focused on transformation savings of $1 billion, which is embedded in the anticipated lost opportunities due to the de minimis policy [3][6] Market Reaction - FedEx's stock rose by 0.32% on Thursday and 5.48% in after-hours trading, although it remains down 17.42% year-to-date and 24.60% over the year [8]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite a decline in revenues for the quarter ending March 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating a potential impact on the stock price based on actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on April 29, 2025, with a consensus estimate of $1.44 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +0.7%. Revenues are projected to be $21.06 billion, down 3% from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.11% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.62%, suggesting a bearish outlook [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a positive reading being a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a strong Zacks Rank [6][8]. However, UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - UPS has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter showing a surprise of +9.13% [12][13]. Conclusion - While UPS does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [16].