Core Viewpoint - Pool Corp. is facing a challenging economic environment, with its stock down approximately 12% year to date, but this may present a buying opportunity for investors as it is a high-quality industry leader available at a discount [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Pool Corp. is the world's largest pool supplies distributor, operating 448 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia, serving over 125,000 customers [5]. - The company owns the Pinch A Penny retail franchise, which has around 300 locations [5]. - Pool Corp.'s revenue is significantly driven by recurring sales, with 86% coming from consistent upkeep products for installed pools [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Over the past five years, Pool Corp. has achieved a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in total revenue, reaching $5.3 billion in 2024 [8]. - Despite a slowdown in new pool construction, management remains optimistic about growth from its expanding private-label business and the Pool360 digital platform [9][10]. - For 2025, Pool Corp. anticipates net sales to be "flat to slightly higher" year over year, with an earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate of $11.08 to $11.58, indicating a 3% increase at the midpoint compared to 2024 [10]. Group 3: Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - Pool Corp. has a strong free cash flow generation, allowing for a generous capital allocation strategy, including a recent 4% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.25 per share, yielding about 1.3% [11]. - The company has also increased its share repurchase authorization to $600 million, demonstrating its commitment to shareholders [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - Pool Corp.'s current forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 27, which is a discount compared to its historical average P/E of around 30 over the past decade, suggesting the stock may be undervalued [12]. - A potential recovery in the housing market and pool construction, aided by subdued inflation and lower interest rates, could enhance company performance [14].

Core Viewpoint - The current pessimistic sentiment towards Pool Corp. may not persist, and the stock could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors due to its strong fundamentals and consistent dividend growth [1][12]. Company Performance - Pool Corp. shares have declined approximately 11% in 2025, reflecting a normalization of demand after a pandemic-driven boom rather than a failing business [5]. - Revenue for Q1 2025 fell 4% year-over-year to $1.07 billion, but a 2% decline was noted when comparing the same selling days, indicating an improved sequential trend [6]. - Maintenance-related product sales supported overall sales, with chemical volumes growing 1% and double-digit growth in private-label chemical products, while new pool construction sales negatively impacted results [7][8]. Profitability and Valuation - Pool Corp. maintains a gross margin of 29.2% and has reiterated its full-year earnings per share guidance for 2025 in the range of $11.10 to $11.60, trading at 27 times the midpoint of this guidance [9]. - The company generates approximately 60% to 65% of its sales from recurring maintenance-related products, providing a stable revenue base [8]. Capital Return Strategy - Pool Corp. has demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, with a dividend that has grown at a compound annual rate of nearly 20% over the last decade [10]. - The company has increased its share repurchase program to $600 million, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects and commitment to shareholder value [11]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term growth story for Pool Corp. remains intact, with a steady increase in the number of in-ground pools in the U.S. and a dominant distribution network that provides a competitive edge [13]. - Despite recent stock performance, the underlying business remains strong, and management is executing a disciplined capital return strategy [12].