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TEM vs. GH: Which AI in Precision Oncology Stock Has More Upside Now?
ZACKSยท 2025-06-23 20:00
Core Insights - Tempus AI and Guardant Health are leading companies in AI-powered precision oncology, with Tempus reporting a 75% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by genomics testing demand and a $200 million data licensing deal with AstraZeneca and Pathos [1][6] - Guardant Health is enhancing its position in liquid biopsy and early cancer detection, achieving positive gross margins for the first time in Q1 2025 [1][10] Company Performance - Tempus AI's revenue growth is attributed to a 89% increase in genomics revenues, with gross profit nearly doubling (up 99.8% year-over-year) and adjusted EBITDA improving by $27.8 million [6][9] - Guardant Health raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $880-$890 million, driven by increased test volume and average selling prices, with oncology revenues projected to grow 18% [10][12] Strategic Developments - Tempus AI is transitioning from a clinical testing provider to a data-driven platform, with a total remaining contract value exceeding $1 billion due to its strategic partnerships [7] - Guardant Health's Reveal product has turned gross margin positive, benefiting from reduced costs and improved reimbursement, positioning it for high growth in minimal residual disease detection [11][12] Financial Outlook - Tempus AI has raised its full-year guidance to $1.25 billion, indicating around 80% annual growth, despite posting a Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss of $16.2 million [8][9] - Guardant Health expects to reach breakeven for non-screening operations by Q4 2025, with projected cash burn significantly reduced to $25-$35 million for the year [12][13] Valuation Comparison - Tempus AI is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.48, while Guardant Health's ratio is 6.22, indicating that Tempus AI is relatively more expensive compared to Guardant Health [14] - Analysts suggest a potential decline of 5.2% for Tempus AI's stock price, while Guardant Health's average price target indicates a 16.1% upside [15][17] Investment Considerations - Both companies are seen as strong long-term plays in AI-powered precision oncology, but Guardant Health is currently better positioned due to its improving gross margins and disciplined cash management [20]