Core Viewpoint - FiscalNote is significantly expanding its operations into political prediction markets, indicating a strategic move to leverage data analytics in forecasting political outcomes and trends [1] Group 1: Company Expansion - FiscalNote's expansion into political prediction markets aims to enhance its offerings and provide clients with advanced tools for political forecasting [1] - The company is positioning itself to capitalize on the growing interest in political data and analytics, which is becoming increasingly relevant in various sectors [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The entry into political prediction markets reflects a broader trend in the industry where data-driven insights are becoming essential for decision-making in political and business contexts [1] - This move may attract new clients and partnerships, potentially increasing FiscalNote's market share in the political analytics space [1]

Yadin Eldar, 21, has been betting on prediction markets since 2019. His friends think he’s “crazy”, he said. But the craze surrounding these platforms is rapidly gathering steam.Users can bet on virtually anything, from the outcome of Sunday’s Super Bowl to whether the US will invade Greenland, every second of every day.Hundreds of millions of dollars are now wagered each week, generating odds that users promptly screenshot, post and meme far and wide, from social media feeds to mainstream news networks.Pol ...

Core Insights - Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to speculate on the outcomes of future events, with prices reflecting the probability of those outcomes [5][4][18] - The market dynamics are influenced by real-time supply and demand, with share prices ranging from $0.00 to $1.00, correlating to the percentage chance of an event occurring [4][3] Market Types - Scalar markets resolve based on whether an outcome is higher or lower than a specified value, while categorical markets have multiple options, and binary markets have two possible outcomes [2] - Examples of prediction markets include Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Myriad, each with unique operational models and market focuses [7][9][10][11] Market Growth and Valuation - The prediction market sector saw a significant increase in volume from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, indicating rapid growth and increasing mainstream acceptance [16][17] - Kalshi reached a valuation of $11 billion following a $1 billion funding round in November 2025, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion after a $2 billion investment [7][9] Regulatory Environment - Prediction markets face regulatory scrutiny, with challenges arising from differing laws on gambling and securities across jurisdictions [19][20] - Polymarket has faced legal issues, including a $1.4 million fine from the CFTC, while Kalshi has encountered temporary bans in certain U.S. states [20][22] User Engagement and Demographics - A generational shift is evident, with younger consumers showing increased awareness and engagement with prediction markets, as nearly a third of Americans expect online betting to become more culturally significant [24]

When is insider trading on prediction markets actually insider trading? That’s the question Kalshi CEO, Tarek Mansour, found himself answering on national television Tuesday afternoon. The prediction market recorded one of its highest-ever trading days on Sunday during the Super Bowl. Alongside wagers on who would win the NFL championship, Kalshi users could also place bets on other seemingly innocuous markets. That included a $113 million market for what Puerto Rican pop star Bad Bunny would play as t ...

Core Insights - Kalshi achieved a record trading volume of over $1 billion on Super Bowl Sunday, marking a 2,700% increase year over year [3][4] - The platform's popularity surged with over $100 million in bets on Bad Bunny's opening song and $45 million on the artists performing with him [3] - Kalshi's CEO highlighted the company's unique model where it benefits when customers win, differentiating it from traditional sportsbooks [5] Company Performance - Kalshi's trading volume during the Super Bowl significantly outperformed last year's total of $27 million [3] - The platform experienced delays in processing deposits due to high traffic, but assured users that their funds were safe [5] Industry Context - Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to trade on various outcomes, distinguishing themselves from traditional gambling by operating under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [4] - The rise in popularity of prediction markets extends beyond sports, with applications in events like the Grammys and Oscars [6] Regulatory and Operational Challenges - Concerns about market manipulation and insider trading have been raised, prompting Kalshi to enhance its surveillance and enforcement efforts [7] - The company has conducted over 200 investigations and referred several cases to law enforcement in response to these concerns [7]

Core Insights - The prediction market sector is experiencing significant growth, with trading volumes quadrupling from $15.8 billion in 2024 to approximately $63.5 billion in 2025, but this growth is accompanied by structural strains and regulatory challenges [1][2]. Market Activity - Trading volumes are heavily concentrated around three dominant platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth as it is driven more by incentives and event-driven spikes rather than organic demand [2]. - CertiK's report indicates that wash trading on Polymarket surged in 2024, reaching nearly 60% of reported volume, which inflated liquidity metrics but did not significantly distort price reliability [3][6]. Price Formation and Market Integrity - The distinction between inflated activity and broken markets hinges on whether artificial trading impacts price formation rather than just volume reporting [4]. - Key indicators of potential market manipulation include persistent price divergence between platforms, probability movements without corresponding news, and systematic biases in pricing outcomes [5]. Security Challenges - The rapid growth of prediction markets has outpaced the development of their security architecture, leading to structural weaknesses that could become more significant as user bases expand [8]. - CertiK warns that lower-liquidity markets may become increasingly vulnerable as more sophisticated traders enter the space, potentially exacerbating security issues [7].

Core Insights - Jump Trading plans to acquire small stakes in prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity [1][2] - The firm will take a fixed equity stake in Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will increase over time based on the trading capacity provided [2] - Both Kalshi and Polymarket are leading platforms in the prediction market space, each achieving multibillion-dollar valuations [2] Company Developments - Jump Trading has recently expanded its prediction-market trading operations by hiring 20 new staff members [3] - The company has a significant focus on cryptocurrency, indicating a strategic alignment with emerging financial technologies [1]

Core Insights - The Super Bowl generated significant activity in prediction markets, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket seeing increased trading volumes despite not being able to advertise during the event [2][4]. Prediction Market Activity - Kalshi reported a total trading volume of $871 million, surpassing its previous daily record of $543 million, indicating a strong interest in prediction markets during the Super Bowl [3]. - Approximately 75% of Kalshi's trading volume was related to the Super Bowl, with prediction markets accounting for about 20% of the total wagers made at regulated sports books, which the American Gaming Association estimated to be around $1.76 billion [4][9]. User Experiences and Outcomes - One user on Polymarket reportedly made over $1.2 million from successful bets on the Seahawks, while another user won nearly $5,000 betting on celebrity appearances during the halftime show [5][9]. - A dispute arose regarding a Polymarket event contract related to performances at the Super Bowl, highlighting the complexities and ambiguities in defining what constitutes a "performance" [8].

Group 1 - Polymarket, a prediction market platform, is set to launch "The Polymarket," a physical store offering free groceries in New York City, with a grand opening on February 12 [2][3] - The store will operate for a limited time, from Thursday through Sunday, although the exact address has not been disclosed [2] - Polymarket has also made a $1 million donation to Food Bank For NYC, a nonprofit organization focused on hunger relief [3][4] Group 2 - Kalshi, another prediction market platform, recently hosted a free groceries event at Westside Market, covering up to $50 per person [4] - The initiatives by Polymarket and Kalshi have inspired other companies to participate in similar efforts [5] - The announcements from both companies align with Mayor Zohran Mamdani's proposal for city-owned grocery stores aimed at providing affordable food in underserved areas [5] Group 3 - Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are gaining popularity for speculating on a wide range of topics, including geopolitics, sports, and economic trends [6]

Core Insights - Kalshi has implemented tighter trading surveillance measures ahead of the Super Bowl, including an independent oversight committee and partnerships with new data providers to ensure market integrity [1][4] - The Super Bowl is projected to generate a record $1.76 billion in legal wagers in the US, with Kalshi holding over 50% of the regulated market share [2][7] - The prediction market industry is experiencing rapid growth, with sports betting now accounting for approximately 70% of total prediction market volume, and aggregate volumes expected to reach $40 billion by 2026 [6] Company Developments - Kalshi has seen nearly $170 million in bets for the Super Bowl, raising concerns about the potential for insider trading due to the high volume of transactions [1][3] - To combat insider trading risks, Kalshi has partnered with Solidus Labs to utilize their "HALO" system for monitoring market manipulation [4] - An advisory committee, including experts from Wharton, will publish statistics on investigations to enhance transparency and oversight [4] Industry Context - The competition in the prediction market space is intensifying, with Polymarket leading the offshore market with nearly $4 billion in monthly activity [2][7] - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with some states moving to restrict access to certain prediction market products, impacting platforms like Polymarket [5]