在充满不确定性的2025年，预测平台Polymarket正以惊人速度崛起：从美联储降息到俄乌停火、Taylor Swift是否怀孕，再到AI模型排行，Polymarket将世间万物转化为可交易的"概率合约"，吸引数十亿美元 资金参与。它被誉为"群众智慧的金融化"，也是信息金融的实验场，甚至被视为正在崛起的"第五权 力"。不同于传统赌场，Polymarket由加密技术驱动，以"无庄家、动态交易、流动性奖励"三大革新，挑 战传统博彩与民调机制。但光鲜背后，是UMA裁决机制的多次争议、伦理边界的模糊，以及"反身 性"对现实的影响：它到底是在预测未来，还是在"操纵"未来？当战争、灾难、选举皆可金融化，我们 是在接近真相，还是打开了资本定义一切的潘多拉魔盒？ ...

Blockchain prediction market Polymarket is preparing a return to the United States as it eyes a potential $10 billion valuation, according to a Friday report by Business Insider. Key Takeaways: Polymarket is planning a U.S. return and seeking a valuation of up to $10 billion. The platform gained traction after accurately predicting Trump’s 2024 victory but faced regulatory setbacks. With CFTC clearance and rising competition from Kalshi, Polymarket is re-entering a heated prediction market race. T ...

Prediction market PredictIt, which started out as an academic platform focused on political forecasts, is preparing to launch a new exchange after getting the nod from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. PredictIt, operated by the D.C.-based Aristole, said last week that the CFTC approved its applications to operate as both a designated contract market, or DCM, and derivatives clearing organization, or DCO. “With these approvals, Aristotle will launch a new exchange designed to provide U.S. trade ...

Myriad is officially tracked on DefillamaFollow along with the growth in real time...DefiLlama.com (@DefiLlama):Now tracking @MyriadMarkets on @LineaBuild & @AbstractChainPrediction Markets for everything from crypto, politics and sports to gaming, culture and technology https://t.co/KMGRALbEHC ...

https://t.co/odYCkTfAST and Underdog team up to launch sports prediction markets in US https://t.co/DJmsEzQznz ...