Economic Data - U.S. retail sales were unchanged month-over-month in December, weaker than expectations of +0.4% [2] - Core retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts, were also unchanged month-over-month, below the expected +0.3% [2] - The U.S. Q4 employment cost index rose +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, weaker than the anticipated +0.8% [2] - The U.S. import price index increased by +0.1% month-over-month in December, in line with expectations [2] Labor Market - Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding the anticipated 55,000 [4] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% [4] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed mixed, with S&P Global (SPGI) dropping over -9% after weaker-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS [3] - AI-infrastructure stocks like Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) also retreated, with declines of over -8% and -6% respectively [3] - Datadog (DDOG) surged more than +13% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q4 results [3] Earnings Reports - Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year [8] - Prominent companies such as Cisco Systems (CSCO), McDonald's (MCD), and T-Mobile US (TMUS) are set to release their quarterly results [8] International Market Trends - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.34% due to concerns over AI disruption, particularly affecting technology stocks [9] - Italy's December Industrial Production fell -0.4% month-over-month, stronger than expectations of -0.6% [11] - China's consumer inflation eased in January, with food prices declining 0.7% year-over-year [12]

Core Viewpoint - S&P Global's fourth quarter earnings report revealed a revenue increase of 9% year-over-year, but the company's stock suffered a significant decline due to investor concerns over AI impacts, leading to a 9.7% drop in share price on the announcement day [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the fourth quarter reached $3.9 billion, aligning with Wall Street estimates, with the indices business seeing a notable 14% revenue increase [2]. - The ratings division also reported an 8% revenue growth during the quarter [5]. Future Outlook - S&P Global's forecast for 2026 indicates a slowdown in revenue growth, projected between 6.6% and 8.6%, down from 9% in the previous year [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return approximately 85% of its free cash flow to investors in 2025, with $6.2 billion allocated for shareholder rewards, including $1.2 billion in dividends and $5 billion in share buybacks [3]. - The current share price of $444 is significantly below the average analyst target price of $615, suggesting a potential upside of around 38% [3]. Market Reaction - S&P Global's shares have declined over 23% year-to-date, reflecting broader market anxieties related to AI [3]. - Analysts from JPMorgan characterized the market's reaction as an overreaction, indicating uncertainty about the long-term implications of AI on software infrastructure [5].

Core Insights - Moody's raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts due to strong performance in its analytics unit and increased bond issuance activity [1] Group 1 - The analytics unit of Moody's is experiencing strong momentum, contributing positively to the company's financial outlook [1] - Robust bond issuance activity is a key factor driving the improved revenue and profit forecasts for Moody's [1]