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Shake Shack Stock Tanks 31% in a Month: Golden Buying Opportunity?
ZACKSยท 2025-03-19 20:00
Core Insights - Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) has experienced a significant 146.6% increase over the past five years, but has recently faced a decline of 30.6% in the past month, underperforming the retail restaurant industry's 4.8% decline and the S&P 500's 7.5% drop [1][2][8] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, Shake Shack reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 14.8%, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate [2] - The stock closed at $85.78, below its 52-week high of $139.89 and above its 52-week low of $77.50 [3] - Analysts have revised the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHAK's 2025 EPS upward from $1.26 to $1.29 over the past 30 days, indicating a positive shift in sentiment [7] Revenue and Earnings Growth - Projections indicate a robust earnings growth of 40.2% in fiscal 2025 and a 22.9% increase in 2026, with revenue growth expected to be 17% year-over-year in 2025 and 12.7% in 2026 [9][10] - Shake Shack's same-shack sales growth improved by 1.6%, 4%, 4.4%, and 4.3% in the first, second, third, and fourth quarters of fiscal 2024, respectively, with a forecasted improvement of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2025 [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on digital transformation, enhancing the Kiosk experience, and improving omnichannel adoption to drive guest engagement and higher average checks [11] - Shake Shack expanded its global presence by entering Canada, Israel, and Malaysia in 2024, and aims to open 35-40 new locations in 2025 [13] - A partnership with Delta Air Lines has been established to introduce Shake Shack's menu to in-flight dining, showcasing the brand's ability to extend its reach beyond traditional restaurant settings [14] Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The SHAK stock is currently trading below the industry average, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 2.42X [15] - The recent stock decline presents a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors, supported by strong growth prospects and strategic initiatives [18] - Positive earnings estimate revisions and innovative partnerships signal growing investor confidence in Shake Shack's future performance [19][20]